EUR/USD's consolidation from 1.1096 extended last week. Initial focus is on 1.1302 minor support this week. Break of there will indicate that such recovery is finished and turn bias to the downside for 1.1096. Break there will extend recent down trend to next fibonacci level at 1.0283. In case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance from 1.1678 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption eventually.
In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 long term top is viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.3993 is the third leg of such pattern and should target 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.3993 at 1.0283 next. On the upside, break of 1.2042 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.
In the long term picture, price actions from 1.6039 (2008 high) is viewed as a corrective move with fall from 1.3993 as the first leg. We'll start to look for bottoming signal below 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.3993 at 1.0283.
