US Payrolls can still surprise to the upside – UOB Group
2 February 2015, 12:22
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Analysts at UOB Group did not rule out a better-than-expected Non farm Payrolls for the month of January, due on Friday.
Key Quotes
“In the US, the data highlight for the week ahead is the widely watched non-farm payrolls data for January on Friday”.
“Prior to that, we will have the mid-week’s ADP employment numbers where markets are looking at lower job creation of 220k in January from 241k in December”.
“Markets are also expecting a lower 235k addition to nonfarm payrolls (from December’s 252k increase) whilst the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.6% unchanged from December, according to the latest Bloomberg consensus forecast”.
“We believe that there may be room for upside surprise, so another 300k or higher payrolls may not be out of the question which in turn, may re-ignite concerns about earlier Fed interest rate normalization rather than later, especially following the positive assessment of the US jobs market given in the January FOMC statement”.
Key Quotes
“In the US, the data highlight for the week ahead is the widely watched non-farm payrolls data for January on Friday”.
“Prior to that, we will have the mid-week’s ADP employment numbers where markets are looking at lower job creation of 220k in January from 241k in December”.
“Markets are also expecting a lower 235k addition to nonfarm payrolls (from December’s 252k increase) whilst the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.6% unchanged from December, according to the latest Bloomberg consensus forecast”.
“We believe that there may be room for upside surprise, so another 300k or higher payrolls may not be out of the question which in turn, may re-ignite concerns about earlier Fed interest rate normalization rather than later, especially following the positive assessment of the US jobs market given in the January FOMC statement”.
