AUD/USD might move towards 0.70 levels over the medium-term – Rabobank
30 January 2015, 14:10
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Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, forecasts AUD/USD to head lower towards 0.70 levels over the medium-term, further expecting RBA to cut rates in the coming months.
Key Quotes
“While rate cut speculation has undermined the value of the AUD recently, within the context of other developed world currencies over the past month the AUD has still outperformed the SEK, DKK, EUR, NZD and CAD.“
“The RBNZ this week dropped its hawkish tone and all the other central banks with which these currencies as associated have taken more aggressive policy action.”
“Insofar as AUD interest rates still offer yield which could underpin the AUD, the RBA will have to consider the action of other central banks if it seriously wants to see the value of the AUD push lower. This argument strengthens the likelihood that the RBA will act on rates in the coming months.”
“Insofar as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are the only developed world central bank that haven’t jawboned, intervened or cut rates in the past 12 mths, we expect that the AUD can fall further vs. the GBP and the USD this year.”
“In view of the fact that the Fed made no move to object to USD strength at its FOMC meeting this week, we have extended our bearish call on AUD/USD and revised lower our 12 mth forecast to 0.70.”
Key Quotes
“While rate cut speculation has undermined the value of the AUD recently, within the context of other developed world currencies over the past month the AUD has still outperformed the SEK, DKK, EUR, NZD and CAD.“
“The RBNZ this week dropped its hawkish tone and all the other central banks with which these currencies as associated have taken more aggressive policy action.”
“Insofar as AUD interest rates still offer yield which could underpin the AUD, the RBA will have to consider the action of other central banks if it seriously wants to see the value of the AUD push lower. This argument strengthens the likelihood that the RBA will act on rates in the coming months.”
“Insofar as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are the only developed world central bank that haven’t jawboned, intervened or cut rates in the past 12 mths, we expect that the AUD can fall further vs. the GBP and the USD this year.”
“In view of the fact that the Fed made no move to object to USD strength at its FOMC meeting this week, we have extended our bearish call on AUD/USD and revised lower our 12 mth forecast to 0.70.”
