For the January employment report, scheduled for release on Friday, February 6, Barclays is looking for nonfarm payrolls to rise by 250k and private payrolls to expand by 240k.
"The difference is government payrolls, which we expect to increase by 10k. This would represent a modest slowing in the pace of payroll growth from the three-month average gain of 289k through December. Factors in our forecast that support a slowing in payroll growth from recent trends include initial jobless claims, which were modestly higher in the January survey week versus December, and the employment diffusion index, which rose sharply in November to 69.7 from 66.5 in October before falling back to 63.6 in December," Barclays clarifies.
"However, the pace of decline in those employed part-time for economic reasons has accelerated recently and suggests that momentum in labor markets remains solid. Elsewhere, we expect the unemployment rate to fall 0.1pp to 5.5%, average hourly earnings to rise by 0.3%, and average weekly hours to hold steady at 34.6," Barclays adds.
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