Generalising the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies collected in a table as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be expected:
- that before returning to its main trend and continuing movement towards 1.1100, the EUR/USD pair, possibly, will experience a rise to the level of 1.1380÷1.1460;
- the GBP/USD pair, also being under pressure from the “bears” overall, may at first rise to the level of 1.5065 and then continue its fall to the 1.4900 mark;
- regarding the USD/JPY pair, it is expected to mirror the movement of its “colleagues”: after a fall it will rebound from the level of 113.50 and rush up to its nearest target of 119.00;
- and the shock-surviving pair USD/CHF, most probably, can expect a continuation of the sideways trend with growth to 0.8910÷0.9000 and then a decrease to 0.8350.
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As for the last week’s forecast, the head of the ECB Mario Draghi met our expectations and helped ensure that our forecast regarding the EUR/USD pair was fulfilled with millimetre precision - following his speech the European currency dashingly broke through the level of 1.1400 and, as was predicted, finished the week in the area of 1.1200.
- The GBP/USD pair, following the euro, succumbed to the charms of Mr. Draghi, and, as a result, the level of 1.5020, which was predicted to be the lower boundary, changed its orientation and became the upper boundary of the corridor;
- The forecast for the USD/JPY pair was fulfilled by 100% - the pair found itself in a sideways trend and, having reached the predicted mark of 118.75, returned to the same level as it started on in the beginning of the week - 117.70;
- It turns out that the lack of a prediction is also in itself a prediction - something that was confirmed by the USD/CHF pair. Along with the analysts, we refused to make any suggestions regarding its fluctuations last week. And, apparently, having heard of our doubts, the pair decided not to leave the rigid boundaries of a sideways trend throughout the whole week.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
