Generalising the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies collected in a table as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, it becomes clear that many analysts are at a loss, and the graphical analysis provides very contradictory readings. However:
- the pair EUR/USD is an exception: as far as its future is concerned, the overwhelming opinion is that the pair will continue to fall to the level of 1.1400, and at its trial - even further, to the level of 1.1200, and then it is not excluded to bounce up to 1.1785 ÷ 1.800;
- the pair GBP/USD, while under the "bearish" pressure still hold out sideways. The most probable value of fluctuations: 1.5020 ÷ 1.5250;
- USD/JPY pair is also in sideways trend under the "bearish" pressure. It is projected to decrease to the zone 115.20 ÷ 116.00, with a possible increase to the level of just 118.75. The graphical analysis shows that by the end of this or next week the pair may return to trend up, rushing to the "old" target 121.75;
- as for the pair USD/CHF it is very difficult to make any forecast - the market is at a loss, although for the most part it tends to see the pair move down.
***
With respect to the forecast of the previous week, we can say that the New Year's surprises were not limited to the two gaps early January. The role of Santa Claus (albeit belatedly) was played on Thursday by the Bank of Switzerland, as a "gift" it suddenly removed the bottom border of the bidding for the pair EUR/CHF. Even the analysts of the largest banks did not expect this; as a result one can forget all the predictions for the pair USD/CHF made before January 15.
This truly epochal event could not but affect other currencies. For example, for the pair EUR/USD, we had forecasted a drop by the end of the week to the level of 1.1650. Now, however, the estimated fall should add another 200 points, "donated" by the Bank of Switzerland - as a result on Friday the pair was sinking below the level of 1.1460. But the pair GBP/USD demonstrated an impressive ability to handle stress. We predicted a sideways trend for as was justified by 100% - the pair finished at the same level, where it had been at the beginning of the week.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
