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Friday, October 6th
The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish control so far this session, wobbling in the region of its nearly 2-month lows, marked earlier this morning in the vicinity of 1.1700, as upbeat sentiments around the dollar are weighing the pair. Recent pickup in demand of the US dollar could be explained by the latest Fed talks on another rate hike at the end of this year and a slew of positive economic releases, seen earlier this week. On the other hand, yesterday’s ECB Sept meeting minutes showed regulator's intent to keep its monetary policy highly accommodative. This stance of the regulator sparked another wave of speculations regarding the divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and ECB, which added some extra bearish pressure on the pair. On the data front, today the EU docket won’t bring anything noteworthy, leaving the pair at the mercy of widespread market moods, while the US data calendar contains much awaited NFP data, which will set up sentiments around the greenback in short-term projection.
The GBP/USD pair remains highly depressed so far this week, sinking below the level of 1.3100, as numerous factors continue to weigh on the pair. Today demand for the US dollar dominates the market, as yesterday’s hawkish comments, delivered by FOMC members, bolstered the odds of a Dec Fed rate hike. Moreover, ongoing uncertainty on the UK political field also exerts some pressure on the pair on the back of recent news headlines, saying that Conservative Party members insist on UK PM Theresa May to step down from her position, as they doubt over her approach towards the Brexit deal. In addition, increased cautiousness across the market ahead the key event of this week keeps risk-associated assets under pressure this Friday. Today the UK data calendar will remain broadly silent, while the US will release the NFP data, which will be able to bring fresh impetus to the pair during the NA session.
The AUD/USD pair extends its yesterday’s downside rally, sparked by awful Australia’s retail sales data, remaining within striking distance of its 2-month lows, touched earlier this session at 0.7743 level. Adding to this, the pair accelerated its decline recently, following comments of RBA board member Ian Harper, who said that progress in the economic recovery remains too slow and interest rate cut might be appropriate in this case. These comments triggered sell-off of the Aussie across the market, which eventually strongly weighed the pair. Moreover, returned demand for the US dollar, backed by several hawkish Fedspeaks, pointing on another Fed rate hike this year, remains one of the main driving factors across the market, which collaborates with pair’s decline at the end of this week. Today all eyes will remain glued to the key event of this week – US NFP report, which will able to set up next pair’s short-term trend during the NA session.
The USD/JPY pair extends its recovery from the region of its weekly lows, having spiked its resistance level of 113.00 this morning. Recent upside rally of the pair is mainly attributed to the renewed demand for the US dollar, underpinned by hawkish talks of Fed members and tax reforms progress. Yesterday the greenback received additional bullish impetus after The House of Representatives passed the budget to Senate, thereby moving one step closer to tax cut plans’ implementation. However, further pair’s upside rally may appear limited as investors brace for the key event of this week. Today the US economy will publish highly anticipated monthly jobs data, which will be able to bring another clue on less gradual Fed monetary policy tightening path during the NY trades.
The main events of the day:
US Nonfarm Payrolls – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Unemployment Rate – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canada Employment Change – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canada Ivey PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1648 R. 1.1810
USDJPY S. 112.20 R. 113.22
GBPUSD S. 1.3016 R. 1.3300
USDCHF S. 0.9718 R. 0.9828
AUDUSD S. 0.7736 R. 0.7894
NZDUSD S. 0.7076 R. 0.7186
USDCAD S. 1.2414 R. 1.2660
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