Intraday FX market volatility has been high recently, driven in part by commodity volatility and few updates from the major central banks. What is clear to us though is that the overcapacity in the world and declining corporate earnings growth are expected to have a drag on the economies that have suffered the largest terms of trade shocks in the past year. Of note are Canada and Australia within the G10. Asian equity markets declining overnight together with the October steel rebar contract selling off heavily again add to the signs that there is vulnerability in asset markets currently. Market focus today will be on US (retail sales and U-Mich inflation survey) and the set of China data over the weekend. Our trading strategy is still to be short commodity and EM currencies versus USD, JPY EUR.
