Here’s the market outlook for 2016: Content courtesy of Tallinex Limited (https://www.tallinex.com)
EURUSD
Dominant bias: BearishEURUSD was generally bearish in 2015 with a low of 1.0462 and a mid-year high of 1.1712 achieved during a bullish consolidation over the summer. The final week of 2015 was also bearish, and that bearishness could continue until February 2016. February should mark the start of some serious bullish efforts that are expected to ease by the end of April as bears make their presence felt in the market until June. A new bullish period should then start around October / November and last until the end of the year (actually, closer to February 2017). The current bias, however, is bearish.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since the large pullback seen in January 2015, USDCHF has been making consistent efforts to move upward. There have been instances of medium-term bearishness (lasting for a few weeks) but price then recovered and pushed higher. Q1 2016 is likely to exhibit multiple phases of weakness; but is then expected to rally smoothly from April to June. Right now, price is trying to go up, and may well reach the resistance levels at 1.0100 and 1.0150 during this first full week of January.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The short-term, medium-term and long-term biases on GBPUSD are all bearish. Price action was similar to EURUSD during 2015 - it reached a low of 1.4565 during April and a high of 1.5929 during June. Since then, price has dropped some 1100 pips - closing at 1.4732 on December 31, 2015. 2014 saw far more predictable movements on GBPUSD than 2015 (this was also true of other major pairs and crosses), but this year may be different. At present, the bias on GBPUSD (and other GBP pairs) is bearish, and that should continue until March. The market may then try to rally through to May (possibly into June / July), but not without visible effects of gravity to curtail any upward movement. Following this, anticipate another serious weakness through to December.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Bears won a pyrrhic victory in 2015 - the struggle between bears and bulls was so intense that market phases were mostly consolidations and fake-outs. The current bias is bearish, but bulls may gain the upper hand before the end of January and extend control until June (though not without occasional pullbacks). Phases of weakness are expected during July and September, but bulls are likely to push price higher from October to December.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
EURJPY was characterized by high volatility, choppy movements and deadly struggles between bulls and bears during 2015. Current weakness may continue until February, but price is then expected to strengthen through into April. The best approach for this market is probably to look for shorting opportunities between April and September. The market will then most likely rally from September to November, then enter a phase of choppy, volatile movements in December.
I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:
“You will have to stick to your process as much as you can even when things do not go as expected. If you can build such a process and manage to follow it 100 per cent of the time, then you will be trading like a professional.” - Pierre Veyret
Azeez Mustapha
Currency Analyst
Tallinex Limited
The Jaycees Building, Stoney Ground
PO Box 362, Kingstown, VC0100
St Vincent and the Grenadines
https://www.tallinex.com
Privacy: You have been sent this email because of your existing relationship with Tallinex Limited - a company registered in St Vincent and the Grenadines (No. 22199 IBC 2014). We will send you similar updates periodically.
HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.
ADVISORY WARNING: Tallinex Limited provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects but does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and Tallinex Limited specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Tallinex Limited expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never guarantee of future results.
