Continued reaction to Fed Chair Yellen’s dovish speech supported a big curve steepening move Wednesday, with the front end adding solidly to the large rally posted Tuesday, as the Fed rate outlook in futures out over the next five years moved down more, while the back end reversed Tuesday’s more modest gains, as inflation expectations added to Tuesday’s rebound. Stocks also rallied modestly (+0.4% for the S&P 500) and credit had a strong day (4 bp tightening in the IG CDX index), while the dollar pulled back significantly for a third day, making for a general easing in financial conditions. With no economic data releases of consequence while waiting for the employment report, rates investors were focused on adjusting positions to the more dovish Fed outlook within the backdrop of portfolio adjustments around month/quarter/Japanese fiscal year end on Thursday following the front-loaded run of Treasury supply that finished up with a well bid 7-year auction. The ADP report showed a 200,000 gain in private sector jobs, which matched our forecast for Friday. We’re estimating a 205,000 gain in overall nonfarm payrolls including a small rise in government jobs, which is close to consensus.
