Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra / Профиль

Movers

Crude Oil (WTI) (J6) Intraday: under pressure.



Pivot: 33.80

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 33.80 with targets @ 32.00 & 31.05 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 33.80 look for further upside with 34.70 & 35.60 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Gold spot Intraday: continuation of the rebound.



Pivot: 1215.00

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1215.00 with targets @ 1243.00 & 1249.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1215.00 look for further downside with 1207.00 & 1202.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI broke above a declining trend line.

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.



Pivot: 0.7160

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 0.7160 with targets @ 0.7095 & 0.7065 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 0.7160 look for further upside with 0.7195 & 0.7220 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

USD/JPY Intraday: the bias remains bullish.



Pivot: 112.50

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 112.50 with targets @ 113.50 & 114.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 112.50 look for further downside with 111.95 & 111.30 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

GBP/USD Intraday: under pressure.



Pivot: 1.3915

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.3915 with targets @ 1.3825 & 1.3765 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.3915 look for further upside with 1.3950 & 1.3990 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

EUR/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.



Pivot: 1.0965

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.0965 with targets @ 1.0860 & 1.0810 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.0965 look for further upside with 1.1000 & 1.1030 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is badly directed.

THE OUTCOME OF THE G20, CENTRAL BANKS BACK IN ACTION AND US EMPLOYMENT WILL KICK OFF MARCH

February was supposed to be a quiet month. As quiet as you can get in the forex market but with most major central banks taking the month off and the Chinese New Year holiday the expectation was for a less hectic month after an eventful start of the year. It turned out this February was the most volatile in six years for currencies according to data from Bloomberg. While the various holidays did slow the market along with less active central banks, there were other events that more than made up for it raising volatility.

The drop in oil prices at the beginning of the year had commodity-exporting nations scrambling with no end in sight to the oversupply that is far outstripping a lower global energy demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia after an on-again-off-again period seemed to have reached a tentative agreement, which will be discussed in the middle of March. The freeze of oil output has turned around the price of oil and most analysts are forecasting price stability. Volatility concerns remain given the mercurial nature of the producers involved in the deal and their own goals that could jeopardize a final agreement.

The tumble of oil prices, the slowdown in emerging markets and monetary policy are the main topics of the G20 meeting in Shanghai. This week will bring to life those factors as China releases its PMI data on Monday, February 29 at 8:00 pm EST, later that same day the Reserve Bank of Australia will issue its rate statement at 10:30 pm EST. The Australian benchmark rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.00%. Employment data out of the U.S. will begin rolling out on Wednesday, March 2 at 8:15 am when the ADP Payrolls are published. The week will close with the biggest indicator in the currency market the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) due on Friday, March 4 at 8:30 am EST.

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