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http://www.blackwavetrader.com Sou corretor registrado desde 2000, quando comecei a trabalhar na Fexco Stockbroking, que comprou a Goodbody, uma das maiores corretoras da Irlanda. Sou membro do Institute of Bankers na Irlanda. Sou registrado na Sociedade de Analistas Técnicos do Reino Unido e trabalho na indústria há algum tempo, inclusive no IG Group e na Fidelity.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
Hi all. We've had two fundamental pieces of news to help our EURGBP trade along. 1. The ECB is finally acknowledging inflation concerns by removing any reference about not raising rates from the usual statement. 2. The U.K Prime Minister is having political difficulties which could lead to his resignation and/or damage the electoral prospects of the Tories. Of the two the ECB is by far the biggest factor. Although I am less concerned about the GBPNZD trade due to the improved DD I am still reluctant to add another position unless EURGBP were to clear 0.8460 or even 0.85. Also it may not be necessary. As I said last week "Any half decent retracement will make this trade wildly profitable" so it's a matter of calculated risk vs reward. After a difficult lunch time yesterday where the trade touched multi-year support in the 0.8270's our EURGBP trade has woken up and rallied strongly towards 0.85 with some fundamental news as the wind in it's back. I've carefully added some hedges but I will remain light footed on those in order to avoid swapping one DD for another in the cause of adding too much protection.
Hugu beraht
Hugu beraht 2022.02.04
I also keep gbpnzd on sell, but nibbled does not want to fall ):
Ivan Chen
Ivan Chen 2022.02.04
Looks like your EURGBP will pay out soon :)
Gary Comey
Gary Comey 2022.02.09
Progress but we ain’t there until we’re there.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
Good morning. As you are aware our GBPNZD DD is approximately 12% in the high risk client account. This trade has the potential to kill the high risk account though I feel the other accounts can take the stress. New Zealand has gone into lockdown again for 26 days in order to stamp out a dozen cases of the Omnicron variant of COVID-19. Personally I think it's a mistake both politically, economically and socially but I can also understand there are no easy decisions for the Prime Minister. Anyway essentially this is none of our business because as always our business is with the price. This DD on it's own is simply the cost of trading on a grid pattern and would usually not be concerning. The issue is our long suffering EURGBP positions are continuing to trend lower even as I use profits to close the biggest losers. The November strategy is to use basket 2 to eat the biggest losers in EURGBP and even amongst the stressful trading yesterday I continued to do that. The idea is that "hope" is not a plan after such an extended DD and by closing the biggest EURGBP losers we improve average entry and can take advantage of any EURGBP rally which I can guarantee will happen though I as usual nobody can say when. With the EURGBP trade so extended the trick is to try and stay out of trouble with basket 2 which I have been attempting though I think GBPCAD was difficult and now GBPNZD is difficult. Frankly I cannot trade my way out of EURGBP without taking risks and with the best will in the world I will not time my basket 2 entries perfectly every time. The potential upside here is that if we can hold our nerve this GBPNZD trade has the potential to become very profitable and I will use most of the profit to eat the EURGBP DD. I have been adding a few hedges both in EURGBP and GBPNZD but I am reluctant to stay in the hedges for very long. For example with EURGBP I don't want to find my self stuck in a bunch of sell orders down in the 0.83's only to find later when the price rises that it was the equivalent of buying EURGBP at 0.88. So I have been nipping and tucking and attempting to stay net very long in order to secure a way out of EURGBP. While some short trades are desirable we need to get back to cash and finding myself hugely short EURGBP when we manage to get out of our long trade means we are always as sea so to speak and never get back to shore. In order to protect equity I am unlikely to add further GBPNZD short positions. This market has risen for seven weeks in a row and is very overbought and attempting to nail the very top is too risky. Any half decent retracement will make this trade wildly profitable. In the meantime I will continue to nip and tuck at EURGBP using a combination of hedges both in EURGBP and GBPNZD.
numejak
numejak 2022.02.02
Hi Gary. My sub is expiring in 4 days, but it will not let me renew? Is there a workaround or trick to this?
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
$EURGBP downside pressure relieved in a very powerful bullish D1 candle. No change to the Nov'21 strategy. Stilling eating the DD with basket 2. Any $EURGBP rally will see profit sooner therefore. Can the anonymous keyboard warriors show me their skin in the game. Stats please! 😉
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
Successful enough week with basket 2 though it’s just being used to eat the DD in basket 1. Still it’s better to get it over with and any $EURGBP rally will see profit sooner. One full $EURGBP position opened in Alpine at 0.8776 is now gone using profits.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
This week we improved the average entry on $EURGBP by eating the DD with profits from the second basket eg. $EURCHF and indeed this week I also added a new $EURGBP entry at 0.8354. When (not if) $EURGBP rises this latest entry will also eat a lot of SWAP's.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
A swing lower low for $EURGBP and a deeply oversold $EURCHF. There’s some correlations here and also with new all time highs in the S&P500. The November strategy still applies and we must wait for $EURCHF to advance the cash and cut out some of the bigger $EURGBP losers.
Chris Wilpert
Chris Wilpert 2022.01.05
10.07.2021: "Wasn't meant to mean you will live on the streets. Just for the Account. I don't see it from a fundamental perspective but technical. I don't think you trade "news" but when market get overheated in one direction. Grid or not... You do well with positioning. Just the Pattern from march doesn't look bullish and we are only overheated in Monthly. Which happened couple years back as well but saw far deeper price. Fundamentally I am even on your side. I am bearish for GBP. I am actually Bullish for EUR and also see a overheating in EUR/USD. Yes. We both don't know. All the best and compliment again, because 5 years is a long time and you proved your skills often enough. Yet, it seems to be a different now."
Gary Comey
Gary Comey 2022.01.05
Chris, just create your own signal and sell EURGBP. You had plenty of time last night. Come back to me with your own skin in the game.
Chris Wilpert
Chris Wilpert 2022.01.05
I am short EURUSD (1.13468). Don't need to put another EUR basket in for short, thanks. But I got your message. Let me leave you alone. All the best Gary!
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
Our $EURGBP position opened at 0.8773 is some of the way closed with actually the cash a little higher too. I’ve now opened a 13 position at 0.8425 and we’ll soon be back to 12 positions again. Merry Christmas all.
Chris Wilpert
Chris Wilpert 2021.12.30
looks like we dive deeper. Sentiment is bullish as well. Doesn't look good. EURUSD also prepares for another drop. This could get dangerous.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey 2022.01.04
How’s your own signal coming along? Still too busy?
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
Broad based GBP strength has seen $EURGBP reject 0.85 and move lower again amid optimism around vaccines efficacy. That said liquidity is lower and EU/U.K tensions may limit the downside. Another week of eating DD's with profits from basket 2
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
Similarly to last week I have been using profit from basket no.2 to increase cash AND eat the DD in $EURGBP. The BoE surprised traders earlier this week but the drop in $EURGBP was brief. That’s somewhat encouraging though the strategy as described above is working and remains.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
Spent the week using profits to partially eat the DD in $EURGBP so cash goes up, DD goes down etc. $EURGBP has backed off from the weekly highs but the technical picture is a bit encouraging. 0.86 not far away.
Ivan Chen
Ivan Chen 2021.12.11
Bravo!
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
A relatively quiet week with some hints that the BOE may not need to be as aggressive. That said $EURGBP finishing stronger though still firmly in a DD. $EURCHF is a game of patience before an inevitable swing higher.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
Interesting day fuelled by panic and low liquidity given that it's between Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday and the weekend. Dramatic things can happen in low liquidity but that's not to invalidate the moves. Whether COVID-19 induced or not the equity markets are very frothy and needed an excuse. Perhaps there will be follow through next week when people have had the weekend to worry and panic even further (smiley). Interestingly a Friday panic about depreciating the dollar versus the Deutsche Mark caused a "Black Monday" and the crash in the equity markets in 1987. I was 12 years old. Anyway the panic about the pandemic reduced rate expectations, weakened the dollar and by extension strengthened the Euro both against it and against the Pound hence the nice move we've had in EURGBP very comfortably taking out daily resistance in the 0.8430's. Oil price declines weakened the Loonie against major forex so our GBPCAD has had a nice rally. I thought of taking profits at 1.7165 but I'm a bit reluctant to take profits in the High Risk account in GBPCAD because I'd be hitting the bid with 350 lots in poor liquidity. Hopefully we get out of GBPCAD next week and we finally have a win to feel good about having taken some of the medicine up front. Hanging on to winners is harder than hanging on to losers but it's about being self-aware. While currency markets can change and drag our emotions with them one thing that will not change is my determination to move these accounts out of the short term challenges that have overcome them and back on the longer term trajectory that has made us all so much money.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
GBPCAD is trading in and around breakeven with some good momentum behind it. It would suit us to see oil prices decline given the Canadian dollar is correlated to oil and that could come for example following more lockdowns in Europe. That said we don't know what will happen next however it's relative USDCAD is almost at 1.2650 and a convincing break of that level could set up a measured move to 1.2950 which most definitely helps GBPCAD. Profits as discussed are to go towards filling the hole created by closing EURGBP losers.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
Sterling has strengthened somewhat today on positive news flow in BREXIT talks and so our EURGBP has dropped though still trades well above last weeks Bank of England dovish news announcement which was quite a surprise to traders. After falling since February EURGBP has recently shown signs of life however the goal as previously discussed is to use GBPCAD profits and profits from the second basket in general to plug the hole created by closing EURGBP losers. Usefully the BREXIT news has put a bit of a bid under GBPCAD which may be attempting to form a bottom by 1.6720. A close above 1.69 (currently trading 1.6857) with this pair could cause some short covering and attract new buyers turning sentiment bullish. The Loonie has stalled out against the Euro and been weaker against the Dollar and the Yen this week too.
Ivan Chen
Ivan Chen 2021.11.12
I've been looking at your trading activity and you finally took the bullet to take the losses. I am happy that you take that loss! What would you do differently if the same situation arise in the future?
Gary Comey
Gary Comey 2021.11.12
The entry on EURGBP was not correct. Consequence of a few years of trading.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
EURGBP has had the rally we've been looking for helped on by overly hawkish expectations on interest rates that were dashed by the Bank of England yesterday to weaken the Pound. Further follow through may soon by helped on by the triggering of article 16 of the Brexit agreement which will cause further trade tensions with the E.U and tension with the U.K over the Northern Ireland protocol of the BREXIT agreement. EURGBP is now more than 100 pips higher than the lows of last week. As Sterling weakened that GBPCAD second basket dropped to longer term support from October and May 2020 at circa 1.6720 before rallying back up towards 1.68 tonight. GBPCAD remains oversold daily and almost weekly and the strategy therefore is to buy while partially hedging EURGBP. Frankly we need to see the balance of the DD improve decisively towards EURGBP before I would consider buying more GBPCAD. Of course the Canadian dollar may help us out too but there are a lot of moving parts such as the performance of GBPUSD and USDCAD and probably EURUSD too. Rising EURGBP and rising GBPCAD off oversold conditions and a weaker Canadian dollar, too much to ask...maybe! However a partial hedge is just that, partial so it is possible.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
You might call the -7.36% in the cash of the high risk account this month a strategic withdrawal. We took some medicine in order that the patient gets indulge again in the future. EURGBP is sort of in a holding pattern and probably needs to get above 0.85 or even 0.8530 in order to alleviate selling and put the focus on higher levels like 0.8660 which is close to the new average entry (admittedly before SWAPS). EURUSD is always a big driver of Euro based pairs so the ECB leaning more aggressively towards inflation would help a lot. Eurozone consumer inflation is running at 4.1%, more than twice the ECB's target for price stability but Lagarde is trying to hold out while bullish bets on the Euro seem to be rising. So while further weakness in EURGBP cannot be ruled out I think the balance of probabilities is for the market to rise rather than fall. GBPCAD is slow for now but the average true range in greater than what we have been witnessing. Rising weekly support is holding and was well supported at 1.6910 earlier in the week. I still like this trade and while the Loonie is strong for well documented reasons that is the strategy. We buy on a grid when it moves significantly away from the M.A and the weekly 14 period MA sits at 1.7266 tonight.
Chris Wilpert
Chris Wilpert 2021.10.31
I like the weekly candle... Only problem is the sentiment from my perspective. Too many people are bullish (85/15). Good luck!
numejak
numejak 2021.11.03
So it won't let me extend my subscription. What happens tomorrow when my signal expires? I still have all of your trades open at a loss.
Fredrik Ek
Fredrik Ek 2021.11.04
@numejak You positions will be open after the subscription is ended but you have to handle them manually. Hopefully it will not drop below your last position so try to wait for break-even and then close all positions. Br Fredrik
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
In the context of the overall downtrend EURGBP has had a particularly good day amid mixed U.K data this morning and could finish towards the upper end of recent days. Sterling declined against the Euro and the dollar today, indeed GBPUSD may be swinging lower off the 1.3830's and any continued move lower can in theory continue to help our suffering EURGBP trade. Certainly if I am to be closing EURGBP losers I'd rather be doing it with EURGBP continuing to move higher. GBPCAD mirrors USDCAD pretty closely and so I am not so much worried about the Sterling element of this trade. The BOC may deliver more tapering in next weeks meeting but according to ING this is probably already "fully priced in" so any measured move above 1.24 next week could attract more buyers and lead to further Loonie weakness and thus our GBPCAD will still likely mirror it higher in such a scenario. That's what we want. If I can close GBPCAD in the 1.71's it will go a long way to absorbing the recent loss I took closing the EURGBP biggest loser. The 1.71's are entirely within reach.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
So right now the high risk account has breached the 50% soft stop. The largest loser in EURGBP has been cut across High, medium and low risk accounts and the plan as discussed yesterday is to use the second basket to drive the cash forward into the hole created by closing EURGBP positions at a loss. It's useful to consider the strategy which was created under zero stress for use in times of stress. It trades two pairs in a manually traded grid using RSI to time entry. When profit targets are hit trades are closed. If the market continues to move against the initial position new trades are added. Risk control is achieved through position size etc etc. EURGBP will surely go up just as night follows day, the only question is when and all the T.A and fundamental analysis in the world won't get the timing right unless by chance. In the meantime I think it's practical to continue with the strategy that was built to trade two pairs for the very reason that one might not be working or might not work in the timeframe that we find reasonable. What would be very silly would be to capitulate to fear over a strategy that's worked since 2015 though such an emotion is entirely reasonable. We've shown that we can take a loss but if I cut everything as soon as trading conditions got difficult since 2015 I'd have nothing now. Reminds me of Kipling's poem "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs..."
Gary Comey
Gary Comey 2021.10.15
Chris, Good luck back at ya, it says you have a few subscribers too if I am reading mql5 correctly ( I might be wrong) . I think you mean well. I suspect you are not copying any of the accounts you are talking about. In stressful times "interested parties" take an interest, sometimes it's all well meaning.. However if you are an actual copy trader you are free to execute your 2nd scenario. To be fair you could have taken any of my baskets in the last five years and given me a point at which the account blows though I can only imagine you have a figure based on the current balance and with no other positions traded until the account presumably blows. Not that I am aiming in this direction but my own figures right now assuming GBPCAD positions don't move gives me 300 pips lower or around 0.8120 for the high risk account. Nothing is impossible though some things are more improbable than others. Yes I use the technical indicator RSI but with a heathy suspicion of false Gods hence positions size.
Chris Wilpert
Chris Wilpert 2021.10.16
No bad intentions at all. Just my 50 Cents. I was copying you for couple of month and made some DD at the beginning of EURGBP. Thats why I know the entries etc pp. I took some loss and moved couple of month ago for my own signal, but I stopped due to missing time (still have work and travel). Anyway. I can't follow you. Maybe my bad English. I was mentioning fundamentals because your trades are technical and with the DD it feels you defend or explain moves with fundamental reasons... If I do it it just reflects my insecurities in the trade rather focus on the technical. Again, I don't want to troll and I honestly hope it all will work out fine. I was thinking about a EURGBP trade. I mean if it would be passible to copy know with the DD of your medium account it would be already 40% if you manage to get back on track but I don't trust the pair. EUR/USD is better for me. To sum it up. I simply think you are a good trader.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey 2021.10.16
Yes Chris I trade fundamentals and RSI/candlesticks. I used to be a stockbroker so watching politics and economics is an old habit. I’ve also been interested in politics and economics since I was probably a teenager. No offence taken, if you develop a signal of your own let me know and I’ll keep an eye on you.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
It's an early Friday update today due primarily to the EURGBP positions and the fact that we have both Non-Farm payrolls and Canadian employment data later today. While EURGBP found support at 0.8471 the situation has become difficult and given primarily technical factors it's not unrealistic to say there would be further downside. EURUSD has dropped quickly for the last few days dragging EURGBP lower with it. IF I were not in any positions right now I'd be looking to buy EURUSD given it's technically oversold nature. As you know I have no official stop loss but a "soft stop loss" instead. A soft stop loss is essentially an area of DD where I will consider taking new measures to protect equity. The options are simple enough when this stretched and involved taking full or partial losses and/or adding equity to the accounts. I may take a partial loss of the biggest losers. I am thinking of adding money to my own accounts up to 10% deposit. I say this because I added money before and people asked me to give them the heads up if I do it again therefore while it is not certain it is a possibility. The economist John Maynard Keynes famously said "the market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent" however he may not have had more money to add nor is solvency even really an issue here, simply my self imposed soft stop loss levels. It is also not certain that I will take any measures, my preference is to do nothing. When markets are falling technical analysis will tell you the trend is down and give you support/resistance and the next downside target and when markets rise they will do the opposite. It can get into your head and cause stress and anxiety if you are trading because it is one thing to know your levels but another to handle your emotions. Yet technical analysis is simply the weather forecast, when downside targets are not hit they simply change the forecast so while it is useful it is not gospel nor do those who make the forecast intend people to hang their hats on those levels with the certainty of a German government bond. When the rain doesn't arrive they cheerily tell you it didn't rain as if that doesn't make their previous announcement wrong. Since we got into EURGBP the cash is considerably higher and my first preference is to continue to drive it higher with the certainty that no market, even EURGBP is likely to continue to drop especially given the many domestic issues in the U.K, tensions with the E.U over trade, supply chain problems regarding fuel and other supplies etc. Higher cash = more options and protection. I hope you don't mind that I have not given you certainty as to my next actions but rather the options I am considering.
Chris Wilpert
Chris Wilpert 2021.10.08
Well said. EURUSD looks good indeed. A bit lower and we hit the pullbback of the downside trendline from 2008. Very bullish in mid- and long-term. I still would love to see a heavy reversal first. I still want to see 0.845 in EURGBP to kick out Sl's once more and than heavy turn like the recent days... Yet the risk is real to see more downside. Both measure sound reasonable... Realize part loss or increase equity. Not sure if 10% help a lot but at least people who follow the signal should be able to afford 10% raise. Good luck!
Jhonny Franco
Jhonny Franco 2021.10.11
I would like to know your opinion about this Mr. Comey. Thanks in advance https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-englands-saunders-says-get-ready-early-rate-rise-2021-10-09/
Gary Comey
Gary Comey 2021.10.14
Already gave an opinion on Twitter: @blackwaveFX
Gary Comey
Gary Comey
Cash higher again, it's been a 2% week and September was a 3.5% month in the higher risk account. Earlier in the week I said "lets see what the rest of the week brings" and now we know that EURGBP weakened partially due to EURUSD weakness (U.S Yields etc) and partly due to Sterling strength eg GBPUSD. EURGBP probably needs to close above 0.86 to provide any bullish signal. Rabobank had previously put an end of year target of 0.84 have now raised it to 0.85 which is not good enough for us but keep in my that is an end of year target and there can be lots of volatility around that number. They may also be just plain wrong.....again. Personally I think BREXIT won't be easy and while the end result may or may not be a success for the U.K, the road will be bumpy irrespective. Volatility is good for us and that is picking up as we move into October an historically volatile month.
Chris Wilpert
Chris Wilpert 2021.10.07
Wasn't meant to mean you will live on the streets. Just for the Account. I don't see it from a fundamental perspective but technical. I don't think you trade "news" but when market get overheated in one direction. Grid or not... You do well with positioning. Just the Pattern from march doesn't look bullish and we are only overheated in Monthly. Which happened couple years back as well but saw far deeper price. Fundamentally I am even on your side. I am bearish for GBP. I am actually Bullish for EUR and also see a overheating in EUR/USD. Yes. We both don't know. All the best and compliment again, because 5 years is a long time and you proved your skills often enough. Yet, it seems to be a different now.
Gary Comey
Gary Comey 2021.10.07
Agreed with your last comment but I’d add that it’s different every time.
Feng Xue
Feng Xue 2021.10.08
Hello, I'd like to inquire about the signal