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# SLTP Probability

This multifunctional analyzer expert calculates stop loss and take profit execution probability.

### General idea

If we have an open position, there may be three possible future options: stop loss is executed, take profit is executed or position remains open. Using probabilistic methods, the expert performs the following functions:

• calculating stop loss and take profit execution probabilities within an hour, a day or a week
• calculating the probability of a position remaining open at the end of the specified intervals
• calculating average profit and loss values as a result of stop loss and take profit execution. The average value is equal to the distance multiplied by execution probability
• assessing the price (trend) and volatility average change
• displaying possible future price movement trajectories within a specified time interval.

The price formation model (Black-Scholes model) assumes independent symbol price increments distributed according to the lognormal law. The equation from the following work are used for the calculation: Antoon Pelsser. Pricing Double Barrier Options: An Analytical Approach. January 15, 1997. ABN-Amro Bank Structured Products Group (AA 4410).

### Settings

• Trend mode - trend accounting mode: calculate trend - consider the current trend; flat - trend is assumed to be missing;
• Show mode - possible price trajectory display mode
• distance to the comment from the left - distance from the left edge of the screen to a comment in pixels;
• distance to the comment from the top - distance from the upper edge of the screen to a comment in pixels.

### Displayed values

• Position direction (BUY/SELL) - symbol, take profit and stop loss levels;
• TP: Probability of execution - probability of a take profit activation within an hour, a day, a week;
• SL: Probability of execution - probability of a stop loss activation within an hour, a day, a week;
• Hold Position: Probability - probability of a position remaining open (neither stop loss, nor take profit are activated);
• Average TP=(TP distance) x (TP Probability) - average estimated profit received in case a take profit is activated (distance from the current price to a take profit level multiplied by execution probability);
• Average SL=(SL distance) x (SL Probability) - average estimated loss caused by a stop loss activation (distance from the current price to a stop loss level multiplied by execution probability);
• Trend - average price increment
• Volatility - symbol volatility within the period in %

### Usage features

The model assumes that a symbol price volatility and trend remain unchanged in the future. Regardless of other settings and the availability of an open position, the mode displaying the sample trajectories is always available. A trend value is also displayed at all times. If a symbol has no open positions and/or stop loss/take profit, the values of the corresponding probabilities are also absent.

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