Forex Weekly EUR/USD

Forex Weekly EUR/USD

3 abril 2017, 04:08
Anderson Braga


Data Review

  • GE IFO Business Climate 112.3 vs. 111.1 Expected
  • GE IFO Expectations 105.7 vs. 104.3 Expected
  • GE IFO Current Assessment 119.3 vs. 118.3 Expected
  • Import Price 0.7% vs. 0.4% Expected
  • EZ Economic Confidence 107.9 vs. 108.3 Expected
  • EZ Business Climate Indicator 0.82 vs. 0.87 Expected
  • EZ Industrial Confidence 1.2 vs. 1.4 Expected
  • EZ Services Confidence 12.7 vs. 14 Expected
  • EZ Consumer Confidence -5 vs. -5 Expected
  • GE CPI 0.2% vs. 0.4% Expected
  • GE Retail Sales 1.8% vs. 0.7% Expected
  • GE Unemployment Change -30k vs. -10k Expected
  • EZ CPI Estimate 1.5% vs. 1.8% Expected
  • EZ CPI Core Estimate 0.7% vs. 0.8% Expected

Data Preview

  • EZ PPI and Unemployment Rate- Potential for downside surprise given lower French and German PPI
  • EZ Retail Sales- Weak French spending, offset by strong spending in Germany
  • GE and EZ Services and Composite PMI Revision- Revisions are hard to predict but can be market moving
  • ECB Account of Monetary Policy- We do not trade minutes but likely positive
  • GE Industrial Production, Trade and Current Account Balance- Will update after factory orders but PMI manufacturing was stronger so likely good data

Key Levels - EUR/USD

  • Support 1.0600
  • Resistance 1.0800

It was a tough week for the euro. Although more than 30K people fell off German unemployment rolls and retail sales in the Eurozone’s largest economy grew strongly according to the most recent reports, inflation is moving in the wrong direction with CPI growth slowing to 1.5% from 2%. A number of ECB officials have talked about the possibility of a rate hike but we think that will be very difficult until inflation starts to rise. The first round of the French election will be a key focus in the month of April and so far it appears that Emmanuel Macron holds a comfortable lead over Marine Le Pen. As April 23rd nears, the euro’s sensitivity to the polls will increase significantly. In the meantime, the account of the most recent ECB meeting, German industrial production and trade along with U.S. data will drive EUR/USD flows.Technically EUR/USD appears weak but there is also support near 1.0650.

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