Forex Weekly AUD, NZD, CAD

Forex Weekly AUD, NZD, CAD

27 março 2017, 02:17
Anderson Braga
0
186

AUD, NZD, CAD

Data Review

Australia

  • House Price Index 4.1% vs. 2.2% Expected
  • RBA Minutes paint mixed picture showing concern over labour market conditions

New Zealand

  • Westpac Consumer Confidence 111.9 vs. 113.1 Prior
  • PMI Services 58.8 vs. 59.5 Prior
  • GDT Auction Prices Up 1.7%
  • RBNZ Keeps Rates Steady at 1.75%
  • Trade Balance -18m vs. 180m Expected

Canada

  • Wholesale Sales 3.3% vs. 0.5% Expected
  • Retail Sales 2.2% vs. 1.3% Expected
  • CPI 0.2% vs. 0.2% Expected

Data Preview

Australia

  • CH Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI- Chinese data is hard to predict but can be market moving

New Zealand

  • No Data

Canada

  • CA GDP- Potential for upside surprise given stronger trade balance and retail sales

Key Levels

  • Support AUD 7500 NZD 6900 CAD 1.3200
  • Resistance AUD .7700 NZD .7200 CAD 1.3500

The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars fell off their highs this past week. These losses came in spite of stronger data and less dovish views from the Reserve Banks. The minutes from the most recent Reserve Bank of Australia meeting showed the central bank growing more optimistic about growth and inflation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% and while the central bank continued to feel that the currency needs to fall further to balance growth and while monetary policy needs to remain accommodative for a considerable period of time, they also see inflation rising in the months ahead. They now believe CPI will return to target in the medium term instead of gradually and felt that the weak Q4 GDP numbers were due in part to temporary factors. As a result, they view the current growth outlook as positive. The RBNZ has grown less dovish at recent meetings and for this reason we believe that the New Zealand dollar could outperform other major currencies.

As for USD/CAD, retail sales in Canada rose 2.2%, nearly doubling expectations at the start of the year and while consumer price growth eased slightly t the year over year rate remained at 2%. Taken together, the rise in spending and pickup in inflation should cap gains for USD/CAD as they are likely to make the Bank of Canada less dovish. Looking ahead, in the coming week, commodity currency traders will be focused on China’s PMI reports, Canada’s GDP release and a speech from Bank of Canada Governor Poloz.



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