Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Wednesday 28.10.2015

On Tuesday, the most important event of the week and of the month is due – Fed’s Interest Rates Decision that is going to be published at 8 pm (all times stated in GMT +2). Investors are trying to guess what move the US regulator is going to make, however the number of optimists suggesting the rate is going to be increased is small. There is no unity between the members of the FOMC neither, as some propose to start hiking rates this year while others suggest postponing the decision until 2016. Let us remind that currently the key interest rates in the US stands at 0.25%. Labour market conditions stabilised but low inflation prevents the regulator from starting with monetary policy tightening. Attention also needs to be paid to the FOMC commentaries that could contain some hints of future monetary policy plans.

The RBNZ Interest Rate Decision is due at 10 pm. The rate is also expected to stay unchanged at its current 2.75%. On Wednesday night at 1:50 am, Industrial Production data for September is due in Japan. The index is forecasted to decline by 0.5% that could weaken the Yen against its major competitors.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Tuesday 27.10.2015

On Tuesday, the main suppliers of important macroeconomic statistics are going to be the UK and the US. At 11:30 am (all times stated in GMT +2), the GDP data for the third quarter is going to be published in the UK. The figure is expected to fall to 0.6% from the previous 0.7%. The GDP is important indicator of the general state of the economy that represents the value of all goods and services created in the country during a certain period. A growth in the index will strengthen the GBP, while its decline will weaken the currency. September data on Durable Goods Orders is due at 2:30 pm from the US. The figure is expected to increase from -2.3% to -1.1%. The index represents confidence in the longer prospects of the economy and its growth leads to strengthening in the USD. At 4 pm, October data on Consumer Confidence is due in the US that could fall from 103.00 to 102.9 points. A growth in the indicator supports the USD, while a fall pressures the currency. On Tuesday night at 1:50 am, data on Retail Sales is due in Japan. Retail sales is an important index representing the level of consumer consumption in the economy. Its growth can support the Yen.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Monday 26.10.2015

There will not be plenty of macroeconomic publications on Monday. During the day, attention needs to be paid to the German Buba Monthly Report for September that describes current and future states of the German economy, due at 1 pm (GMT +3), and September data on New Home Sales from the US, due at 5 pm. Let us remind that the construction sector is one of the leading in the American economy. According to forecasts, the index will fall slightly from 0.552 to 0.550 million that would not pressure the USD though.

On Monday night at 1:45 am, Trade Balance data is due in New Zealand. Trade deficit tended to grow during the last 3 months. In September, however, the deficit will remain but may shrink from 1,035 million to 800 million NZD. On the other hand, exports from the country will continue their fall started in March this year. Forecasts confirmation may pressure the NZD.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Friday 23.10.2015

The main publication on Friday is going to be October data on Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI’s for Germany, the US and the eurozone. The PMI represents opinions of purchasing managers from the biggest companies in manufacturing and services sectors regarding current state of the economy and its prospects. The threshold in the index is 50 points, below which these sectors are thought to be contracting.

Preliminary data on October PMI’s in Germany is due at 10:30 am (all times stated in GMT +3). The Services PMI is expected to fall to 53.9 points, while the Manufacturing PMI is going to fall from 52.3 to 51.7 points.

The eurozone statistics is due at 11 am and expected to come out with a decrease as well. In October, the Manufacturing PMI might fall from 52.0 to 51.8 points, while the Services PMI is going to decline from 53.7 to 53.5 points that would pressure the Euro.

October data on Markit Manufacturing PMI from the US that is considered a preliminary figure to the official federal index is due at 4:45 pm. According to forecasts, the index is going to fall from 53.1 to 52.8 points.

Attention should also be paid to the publication of September data on the Consumer Price Index from Canada, due at 3:30 pm. On a year-to-year basis, the index is expected to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%, while on a month-to-month basis it will fall to -0.1% to show deflation for the first time since April this year. Forecasts confirmation is going to pressure the Canadian Dollar.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Thursday 22.10.2015

The most important event of Thursday is going to be the European Central Bank meeting. However, the day will start with a publication of September data on Retail Sales in the UK at 11:30 am (all times stated in GMT +3). The index is expected to grow, from 0.2% to 0.4% on a month-to-month basis and from 3.7% to 4.8% in yearly terms, which would support the Pound. The ECB Interest Rate Decision is due at 2:45 pm and the regulator is likely to leave it at its current 0.05%. Closer attention will be paid to the ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference, due at 3:30 pm. Market participants are guessing whether the regulator is going to apply additional stimulus measures amid falling oil prices and a possibility of deflation in the eurozone. However, according to experts from Goldman Sachs, further monetary easing is unlikely. The decision by the ECB could lead to high volatility on the market. August data on Retail Sales in Canada is due at 3:30 pm. The index is expected to fall from 0.5% to 0.1%that would pressure the Canadian Dollar. Existing Home Sales data for September is due at 5 pm in the US. The figure should grow a little to 5.38 million. The CB leading Indicator that represents averaged dynamics of the 9 most important US indicators is due at 5 pm. The index can fall from 0.1% to 0%. On Thursday night at 4:45 am, data on Caixin Manufacturing PMI, a leading indicator to the official figure, is due from China. It is worth noting that the index remained below its 50 points threshold since March this year and could show a further slowdown of the Chinese manufacturing sector.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Wednesday 21.10.2015

The most important event on Wednesday is going to happen in Canada, where the central bank is going to announce its decision on interest rates. Before that, however, attention needs to be paid to the Public Sector Net Borrowing for September from the UK, due at 11:30 am (all times stated in GMT +3), which represents the amount of debt held by the government. The figure is expected to increase to 9.1 billion Pounds, which is less than in August but might still pressure the GBP. The BoC Interest Rate Decision is due at 5 pm. Markets do not expect the regulator to change the rate, which would remain at its current 0.5%. It is worth noting that interest rates were lowered twice during this year that lead to weakening in the Canadian currency and small inflation increase in the country. Investors will also pay attention to the BoC Rate Statement and its Press Conference, due at 5:30 pm, where some commentaries on the current state of the Canadian economy and possible directions in its monetary policy could be announced. After that, markets will focus on speeches by officials from the UK, Australian and the US regulators. The BOE’s Governor Carney speech is due at 8 pm in Oxford, the FOMC Member Powell speech is due at 8:30 pm, while on Wednesday night at 1:45 am, the RBA Assistant Governor Edey will appear at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association meeting. In their speeches, investors traditionally look for hints on further regulators’ actions.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Tuesday 20.10.2015

On Tuesday, it is worth noting the following macroeconomic statistics. Trade Balance, Exports and Imports indicators for September are due at 9:00 a.m. (GMT+3) in Switzerland. Trade Balance is expected to remain in surplus but decline from the previous value and reach 2.510 billion Swiss francs.

American Housing Market is one of the key sectors of the US economy and its statistics is due at 15:30. According to the forecasts, Building Permits are to remain at the previous level of 1.17 million, while Housing Starts are to grow from 1.126 million to 1.150 million that, in general, will support the American currency.

Moreover, ahead of the FOMC October meeting, attention needs to be paid to FOMC Member Powell Speech, due at 4:15 p.m. during the Conference: The Evolving Structure of the U.S. Treasury Market, and Fed's Yellen Speech, due at 6:00 p.m. in Washington.

On Wednesday night, at 02:50 a.m., Japan releases Exports, Imports and Trade Balance statistics. It is the first time since last March when the country is expected to post a trade surplus of 84.4 billion yen that will support the national currency.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Monday 19.10.2015

In addition to GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production statistics, which have already been published in China, there will be a few fundamental events and macroeconomic releases on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. (GMT+3), attention should be paid to NAHB Housing Market Index, which evaluates the business activity of the housing market The indicator is expected to stop growing and remain at 62 points, which is still highly above the key level of 50 points. Fed's Lacker speech is due at 7:00 p.m. and worth noting due to the forthcoming Fed meeting. On Tuesday night, at 04:30 a.m., RBA Meeting's Minutes may shed light on the future of the monetary policy in Australia.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Friday 16.10.2015

There will not be plenty of important macroeconomic statistics on Friday. At 9:30 am (all times stated in GMT +3), Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will appear at the annual meeting of credit cooperatives in Tokyo. His speeches traditionally attract investors’ attention, as there is a chance to find out his opinion on the future monetary policy direction. September data on the Consumer Price Index for the eurozone is due at 12 pm. The index is expected to increase by 0.2% on a month-to-month basis, but remain at the previous level of -0.1% in yearly terms. The European economy, therefore keeps balancing at near deflationary level. September data on the Industrial Production is due at 4:15 pm from the US. According to forecasts, the index will shrink by 0.2%. After few months of growth the American industrial sector could start contracting again, which would pressure the US Dollar. Attention should also be paid to the Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index that is due at 5 pm. The index could increase to 89.0 points.

On Sunday night, Chinese data is going to move the markets. The Gross Domestic Product (YoY) figure for the third quarter of the year is due at 5 am. It is worth noting that the Chinese GDP was gradually falling since 2010 before reaching 7% this year. September data on the Industrial Production (YoY), which are expected to fall slightly from 6.1% to 6.0%, and Retail Sales (YoY) that are going to remain at previous 10.8%, is due at 8:30 am.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Thursday 15.10.2015

On Thursday, important statistics are going to come out in the US. September data on the Consumer Price Index is due at 3:30 pm (all times stated in GMT +3). Both yearly and monthly figures are expected to continue falling, form 0.2% to -1% and from -0.1% to -0.2% respectively. The American economy therefore keeps sliding into deflation. It should be noted that inflation remains one of the key factors for the Fed when making its interest rate decision and this publication is going to be the last before the FOMC October meeting. On Thursday, investors are also waiting for appearances of two Fed officials – Fed’s Bullard speech and Fed’s William Dudley speech are due at 5:30 pm. Their opinions could be particularly interesting before the Fed meeting in the end of the month. On Thursday night at 00:45 am, the Consumer Price Index data for the third quarter of the year is due in New Zealand. The index is expected to remain at the previous level of 0.3% on a year-to-year basis, and to fall from 0.4% to 0.2% quarterly. Confirmation of forecasts will pressure the NZD.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Wednesday 14.10.2015

Wednesday is going to have plenty of important publications that could affect dynamics in currencies. Labour market data from the UK is due at 11:30 am (all times stated in GMT +3). The most important publications will include the ILO Unemployment Rate for August that is forecasted to remain at the previous level of 5.5%, and the Claimant Count Change for September. The number of claimants is expected to fall by 2.1 thousands that would support the Pound. August data on Industrial Production for the eurozone countries is due at 12 pm and its forecasts are rather negative. The Industrial Production w.d.a. is expected to fall from 1.9% to 1.8%, while the Industrial Production s.a. could decrease by 0.5%. If forecasts are confirmed the Euro is going to be under serious pressure.
The US data will also include important releases. Retail Sales for September are due at 3:30 pm. The figure is expected to remain at the previous level of 0.2%, while Retail Sales ex Autos will continue its 3-month fall and comes out at -0.1%. At 9 pm, investors are going to follow the publication of the Fed’s Beige Book that contains data on country’s manufacturing, agriculture, consumer spending, credit and property sector for 12 federal districts in the US. It is worth noting that the report is coming out 2 weeks before the planned FOMC meeting and the data could result in new monetary policy decisions.
On Wednesday night, macroeconomic statistics are released in Asian markets. September labour market data is due at 3:30 am in Australia. It is worth paying attention to the Unemployment Rate s.a. that could increase from 6.2% to 6.3%, and to the Employment Change s.a. The number of employed could increase by 5 thousands, which however is a low reading and would pressure the AUD. Finally, at 7:30 am August data on Industrial Production is due in Japan. The figure is expected to remain at the previous -0.5%.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
The news of the day. Tuesday 13.10.2015

The most important releases on Wednesday are going to be the publications on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September for Germany, the UK and China, as well as ZEW Surveys for Germany and the eurozone. The Consumer Price Index is the major indicator of inflation in the county as it measures the retail prices change for a fixed basket of goods and services. In Europe, inflation remains very low for a long time now. In Germany, where the index is due at 9 am (all times stated in GMT +3), the data could show a 0% change on a year-to-year basis and a 0.2% contraction in monthly terms. The UK’s data is also expected to be around 0%, as the index could fall from 0.2% to 0% in monthly, and remain at 0% in yearly terms. Both indices are due at 11:30 am. At 12 pm the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment data for October is due for the eurozone and Germany. The index represents a difference between optimistic and pessimistic sentiments in the economy. The indices are expected to fall from 33.3 to 30.1 points for the eurozone and from 12.1 to 6.0 points for Germany, which could pressure the Euro.
On Tuesday night at 00:30, markets are going to focus attention on the RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speech, Some Reflections on the World of Central Banking. At 4:30 am, September CPI data is due in China. While inflation was at the optimal 2% in August, in September it could fall to 1.8%, which however is still a lot better than in the eurozone and in the US.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Monday 12.10.2015

On Monday there will be few appearances of responsible for economic decisions officials from the US and Canada. At 3:10 pm (all times stated in GMT +3) Fed’s Lockhart speech is due, while at 5:30 pm Fed’s Evans speech is given. The markets are going to find out their vision of the American economy. BoC Governor Poloz speech is due at 8:20 pm, when he is going to touch a problem of integrating financial stability into monetary policy in Canada at the National Association for Business Economics. On Monday night, attention should be paid to the BRC Retail Sales Monitor from the UK, which is due at 02:01 am. At 02:50 am, BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are due that could have some hints regarding the future direction of monetary policy in Japan.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Friday 09.10.2015

Friday is not going to have many important publications. Attention needs to be paid to data on the UK’s trade balance and the labour market in Canada. At 11 am (GMT +3) data on Goods Trade Balance and Trade Balance; non-EU are due in the UK. In both cases a deficit is expected – total world trade is going to be in deficit by 10 billion Pounds, while non-EU trade’s deficit can amount to 2.5 billion Pounds. This is not going to be new to the markets, however, as UK’s exports exceeds its imports for a long time now. The labour market data for August is due in Canada at 3:30 pm (GMT +3). The Unemployment Rate is expected to fall from 7% to 6.9%, while the Net Change in Employment is going to grow by 10 thousands. The current number may come out smaller than the previous figure of 12 thousands but would still be a significant employment increase. A confirmation of forecasts would strengthen the Canadian Dollar.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Thursday 08.10.2015

Thursday will start with a publication of August data on the Trade Balancefrom the eurozone engine – Germany, due at 9 am (all times stated in GMT +3). Country’s both Exports and Imports could fall by 1.2% and that would the worst fall in exports since January. At 2 pm bloc of news will come out from the UK. The Bank of England will publish its Interest Rate Decision that is expected to remain at the current 0.5%, and will comment on the future monetary policy direction. The regulator’s Asset Purchase Facility is also expected to stay unchanged at 375 billion Pounds. The Bank of England Minutes are also going to attract markets attention as it could contain some comments on the future economic policy decisions. The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts are due at 11:30 am. From the American fundamental news, attention needs to be paid to the Fed Minneapolis's Narayana Kocherlakota speech, due at 8 pm and the FOMC Member Williams speech at 10:30 pm. The most important piece of news, however, will be September’s FOMC Minutes that could shed some light on opinions of the committee members regarding interest rate change and possible timing of the decision.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Wednesday 07.10.2015

On Wednesday attention of the markets is going to be focused on Industrial Production data, which is due at 9 am in Germany (all times stated in GMT +3) and at 11:30 am in the UK. This is one of the main indexes representing the state of national manufacturing, mining and refinery. The German Industrial Production s.a. for August on a month-to-month basis is expected to fall from 0.7% to 0.2%, and could continue falling in early terms. Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a in the UK could come out slightly better and grow in monthly terms from -0.4% to 0.2% and from 0.8% to 1.2% early. A confirmation of forecasts could strengthen the GBP against its major opponents. In addition, pay attention to the NIESR GDP Estimate that is due at 5 pm in the UK, and which is considered as a leading indicator for the official GDP figure.
On Wednesday night at 2:50 am, a bloc of macroeconomic statistics is due in Japan, the most important of which is going to be the Current Account n.s.a. for August. Country’s current account is the difference between payments for exports coming in from outside of the country and payments for import leaving the country. The figure is expected to slightly fall to 1221.0 million Yen. Another important publication is going to be the Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Survey, due at 8 am.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Tuesday 06.10.2015

On Tuesday, attention needs to be paid to September’s data on the Consumer Price Index from Switzerland, which is due at 10:15 am (GMT +3). The yearly figure is expected to remain at -1.4% indicating deflation. At the same time, the monthly figure could grow to 0.1%, which however is unlikely to bring much confidence to investors. At 5 pm (GMT 3), the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, s.a for September is due in Canada. According to forecasts, the figure could decrease from 58.0 to 56.5 points, which would pressure the Canadian Dollar, however slightly as the indicator remains above the threshold of 50 points. At 8 pm (GMT 3), the ECB President Draghi's Speech is due, which traditionally attracts investors’ attention as it might include some comments regarding the current state of the eurozone economy. On Tuesday night, the Bank of Japan Press Conference regarding monetary policy matters of the country is going to be in the markets’ focus.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Monday 05.10.2015

Monday is not going to have plenty of important macroeconomic statistics and markets will be resting after busy Friday. However, attention needs to be paid to Retail Sales data for August from the eurozone, due at 12 pm (all times stated in GMT +3). These figures can differentiate from one another. For example, in July sales grew by 0.4% in monthly terms and by 2.7% on the previous year. Nevertheless, positive tendency continuation would lead to strengthening in the Euro. At 11 am, Markit Services PMI data for September is due in the eurozone, while at 5 pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is due in the US. Both figure are expected to come out significantly higher than 50 points threshold. On Monday night at 6:30, the RBA Interest Rate Decision is going to be published, while economists expect the rate to remain at its current 2%. At the same time, market participants will pay close attention to the RBA Rate Statement, in which the regulator is going to share its view on the Australian economy and its future prospects.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Friday 02.10.2015

The key economic event of the week is due today. Data on the American labor market is going to be published at 3:30 pm (GMT +3), of which the most important are the Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls for September. After falling in August, unemployment is expected to remain at the previous 5.1%. Nonfarm Payrolls, on the other hand, could grow from 173 to 203 thousands. It is also worth noting that the leading indicator Employment Change, released by the Automatic Data Processing, grew in September to 200 thousand new jobs and exceeded forecasts. At the same time, data on Initial Jobless Claims and Continuous Jobless claims showed a decrease from 276 to 270 thousands and from 2260 to 2223 thousands respectively. The only negative piece of data that came out was Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) for September that grew from 41186 to 58877. Most likely, the Nonfarm Payrolls will grow in September but not going to reach the forecasted numbers, which would not stop the US Dollar from strengthening. Amongst other news, attention needs to be paid to the data on Factory Orders (MoM) form the US, due at 5 pm (GMT +3). The figure is forecasted to fall slightly to 0.3%. Fed’s Stanley Fischer speech onMacroprudential Regulation and Supervisionis due in Boston at 10 pm (GMT +3), in which he is going to talk about the current state of the US economy.
Claws and Horns
Claws and Horns
News of the day. Thursday 01.10.2015

Thursday can be called the day of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. Data on this important indicator is going to come out from Switzerland at 10:30 am (all times stated in GMT +3), the eurozone at 11 am, the UK at 11:30 am, Canada at 4:30 pm and the US at 5 pm. Figures for most of the countries are expected to fall. The Manufacturing PMI measures business activity in manufacturing sector and is calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers of the leading companies in the country about the current state of the economy and theirexpectations for the future. According to forecasts, Swiss SVME – PMIfor September is going to fall from 52.2 to 51.7 points but will remain above the level of 50, below which it stayed for 7 months in the beginning of the year. Markit Manufacturing PMI in the eurozone is going to remain at its previous level of 52.0, around which it keeps balancing since February. Markit Manufacturing PMI in the UK, however, can fall to its lowest level since April 2013 at 51.3 points, which could pressure the GBP. RBC Manufacturing PMI in Canada can decline to 49.4 points, and once it falls below the 50 points benchmark, that indicates a contraction of the business activity in the manufacturing sector. The index is likely to stay below 50 for September again. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI, released by the Institute for Supply Management, can fall to its lowest level since May 2013 of 50.7 points, which could significantly pressure the USD.

Amongst other news, attention needs to be paid to the data on Real Retail Sales (YoY) from Switzerland, which is due at 10:15 am. The figure is expected to grow by 0.3% for August,while it was falling for three previous months. On Thursday night at 4:30 am, Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) for August are due in Australia. The figure is forecasted to grow by 0.4% after it declined by 0.1% in July.