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Testing Honest Predictor

This simple Testing Honest Predictor (THP) Expert Advisor was created in order to easily and meaningfully test the Honest Predictor indicator (iHP) performances, within the MT4 Strategy Tester.

Given an asset and a timeframe, THP selects a part of the positions displayed by iHP and prints on the journal (screenshot #2) the percentage of winning positions as if they were executed by a user.

It accepts only positions for which iHP suggests a reliability level not "UNRELIABLE" and a probability higher than a given Minimum Accuracy.

From the tests done, the Honest Predictor indicator seems to avoid "naturally" unfavorable market conditions, although a multi-asset approach is needed to compensate for the low frequency of positions (note that the indicator payed version can be attached on as many charts as you want, at the same time).


THP Usage

Input Parameters:
  • Duration of Backtesting in days: the duration of the backtesting used by iHP to evaluate accuracy (=percentage of winning positions) and reliability level
  • Indicator Threshold: the limit above which iHP generates a position.
  • Expiry Time in bars: the expiration (in bars) for the positions generated by iHP.
  • Minimum Accuracy: minimum threshold of the backtesting iHP accuracy above which THP accepts the positions generated by iHP.
  • Verbosity Level: if =1 it also lists all the accepted position.

The first 3 parameters are just passed to the indicator (see here for a full description).

Set the testing period in the Strategy Tester, press Start (Open Price mode can be used) and THP will print on the journal (screenshot #2) the percentage of winning positions that you would have obtained by executing the indicator positions when its estimated accuracy is above the Minimum Accuracy and when the UNRELIABLE condition does not hold.

No trading orders are performed.


Interfacing iHP to an EA

For users who want to embed the iHP within an Expert Advisor, I report below a code example.

HistoryDays, Threshold and Expiration contain the 3 parameters values that have to be passed to the indicator.

Given a bar shift (> 0 and < HistoryDays*1440/Period()), the first 4 buffers can be read to check if iHP found a position at that bar or not:

string IndiName = "HistoryPredictor.ex4"; //name of the available iHP executable
double UpWon=iCustom(NULL,0,IndiName,HistoryDays,Threshold,Expiration,0,shift);
double DownWon=iCustom(NULL,0,IndiName,HistoryDays,Threshold,Expiration,1,shift);
double UpFail=iCustom(NULL,0,IndiName,HistoryDays,Threshold,Expiration,2,shift);
double DownFail=iCustom(NULL,0,IndiName,HistoryDays,Threshold,Expiration,3,shift);

They refer to: winning CALL positions (0), winning PUT positions (1), loser CALL positions (2) and loser PUT positions (3).

EMPTY_VALUE is returned if there is no position of that type at that shift.

Please note that the position outcome is known only if shift > Expiration, i.e. if it expired and the bar entered the backtesting period. Otherwise, while the outcome remains unknown, the position is recorded only in buffers 0 or 1.

WARNING: if you plan to use your EA in the Strategy Tester at shift=1, then intra-bar modeling is needed and Every tick mode must be set! This is because iHP generates positions on various ticks after the closing time of the bar at shift=1.

To obtain statistical information, both the total number of positions (6th buffer) and that of the winning ones (7th buffer) that were found within the iHP HistoryDays-long backtesting period can be read as:

int TotalHistoryPos = int( iCustom(NULL,0,IndiName,HistoryDays,Threshold,Expiration,5,shift ) );
int TotalHistoryWon = int( iCustom(NULL,0,IndiName,HistoryDays,Threshold,Expiration,6,shift ) );

For example, one could evaluate the accuracy and ignore the last indicator predicted position when this accuracy is unknown or below 70%:

if (TotalHistoryPos == 0 || double(TotalHistoryWon)/double(TotalHistoryPos) < 0.7) return;

Moreover, the p-value can be read from the 8th buffer, for instance to exclude UNRELIABLE conditions:

double pvalue = iCustom(NULL,0,IndiName,HistoryDays,Threshold,Expiration,7,shift);
if (pvalue >= 0.1) return;
レビュー 5
Mohammad Oladi
12554
Mohammad Oladi 2018.12.01 15:33 
 

Thank you for this EA

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BuySellProf lighter
Yurij Batura
多目的エキスパート。 目標を選択する問題を解決します。ヘッジとロックがこのアドバイザーの主要な原則です。高調波変動の法則によれば、価格は常に元の位置に戻り、外国為替市場も例外ではありません。多方向の注文を同時にバランスさせ、ロボットは市場の転換点で利益を上げます。ロボットは、ボラティリティが増加している状況(価格変動の方向に確実性がない)で効果的です。マルチ通貨オプションでは、液体ペアを選択することをお勧めします。 ロボットは、モノ通貨とマルチ通貨の両方のオプションで取引できます。 マルチ通貨オプション(反対の通貨ペア)では、ヘッジが機能し始めます。 これを行うには、ロボットを別の通貨ペアの新しいウィンドウに接続してMagicNumber番号を変更し、この通貨ペアの他の入力パラメーターを変更する必要があります。 ロボットには、口座残高、通貨ペアの利益、口座の種類(実際、デモ、または競合)、および通貨ペアの注文を手動で閉じる機能を表示する情報パネルがあります。 BuySellProf lighter  -ロボットの軽量バージョンです BuySellProf ,  BuySellProf
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397 USD
Isolation
Vasiliy Strukov
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ I am glad to welcome you on the page of my product - I am its author Vasily Strukov.⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐    Isolation - an adviser using the TMA indicator to enter a position. It can be used on simple charts of currency pairs, and it also includes an innovative algorithm that allows you to trade it on Renko bars. When buying an adviser, you can get Renko Builder as gift, which I use  in working with an adviser just pm me. Manual for EA add at comment #8  By  purchasing  this Expert Advisor you are entit
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Yevhenii Mavletbaiev
Smart Scalping Robot is a fully automated Expert that uses a new unique smart scalping strategy in its trading. The price in the Forex market is formed according to the law of supply and demand among the participants in this market, therefore, after an unreasonable rise or fall, it returns to its fair value, this pattern is used by Smart Scalping Robot. The Advisor monitors price changes around the clock to find the optimal entry point. Simply put, the EA determines the moment of price rollback
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ATS Advisor
Ivan Bebikov
There are 0 copies left for the price of $399! In 24 hours, the price will rise to $499. The MT5 version of the expert Advisor is here -  https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/54481 (In MT5 and MT4 versions, there may be slight differences due to the implementation of the code on MT5) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fully automatic adviser, with
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Vladimir Pastushak
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EA Ghost
Vitali Vasilenka
⭐ Anger conquers fear p.s Thomas Shelby ⭐ ⚠️ Settings are available at this link https://1drv.ms/f/s!Ak70UTJrIkV4atAI1ggS5L1Rl5s Telegram   group   here   telegram   channel   here EA Ghost This is a breakthrough in trading algorithms. An Expert Advisor with a unique filtering algorithm for Virtual Orders. The built-in virtual order function allows the EA to determine the market reversal with an accuracy of over 98% The Expert Advisor has no analogues in determining the point of e
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Oon Kar Lee
ONLY 7 OUT OF 10 COPIES AT $349  Next price will be $399.  (Real Profit, Real Trades, Real Signal) After your purchase, drop me a PM.   MEDUSA X is a Revolutionary Momentum and Pullback Algorithm Expert Advisor, specializing on the low spread major pairs, GBPUSD and USDCHF. Dedicated to produce phenomenal performance for its users by strictly adhering to years of mathematical and statistical methods. Extremely EASY-TO-USE, with TREND EMA, RSI, Volatility filters all highly optimized at the
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Lgd Gold
NATALYIA NIKITINA
Impulse movements in the Forex market are formed constantly. The peculiarity of such market segments is that the chart covers a considerable distance in short periods of time. In addition to the chance for earnings, such fragments indicate the position of important support and resistance zones, and the chart reacts to them in the future. Next, we will analyze the Lgd Gold expert Advisor and pulse levels and find out how to use it in work.news – occur when publishing news of the first magnitude
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Ea scalper mt4
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To keep abreast of the latest news and settings, join the telegram group:  ENG  https://t.me/moderntehnology RUS  https://t.me/dynamictime IMPORTANT: Please contact me after buying for the correct paramter.  Before you buy a night scalper please be aware of the risks involved: 1) Past performance is no guarantee of future profitability (the EA could also make losses).  2) The backtests shown (e.g. in screenshots) are highly optimized to find the best parameters but therefore results cannot be t
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TrustyTrader
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Spread Analyser
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フィルタ:
Ovidiu Caslariu
7397
Ovidiu Caslariu 2016.05.06 22:42 
 

ユーザーは評価に対して何もコメントを残しませんでした

削除済み 2017.02.08 14:14 
 

ユーザーは評価に対して何もコメントを残しませんでした

Andrey Litvichenko
7658
Andrey Litvichenko 2017.10.29 04:21 
 

ユーザーは評価に対して何もコメントを残しませんでした

Matthew Todorovski
13296
Matthew Todorovski 2018.06.25 05:05 
 

1 Star (20%) = Bad

2 Stars (40%) = Undecided (still testing)

3 Stars (60%) = Okay

4 Stars (80%) = Good

5 Stars (100%) = Excellente!

Mohammad Oladi
12554
Mohammad Oladi 2018.12.01 15:33 
 

Thank you for this EA

レビューに返信
バージョン 1.9 2015.08.10
It now optimizes and tests versions 2.4 and 2.5 of Honest Predictor (paid versions) with the possibility of handling both the built-in Honest Predictor (iHP) "self-optimizer" and the time management of signal emission.

Added parameters to deal with self-optimization (which regards the iHP threshold, the expiry time and the trend prediction mode):

- 'Self-Optimization Enabled' flag
- 'Self-Optimization Frequency (hours)' (determining how often the indicator is redrawn with the re-optimized parameters)
- 'Max Expiry Time in Self-Optimization (bars)' (the maximum expiry time checked by the self-optimizer).

Regarding the time management, five flags enabling/disabling signals emission on each weekday plus the 'Alert Time Slots' parameter were added to manage time alert emission.

All these parameters are passed "as is" to the indicator.

This allows a complete testing and "experimentation" of the indicator by the user. Internal iHP backtesting can also be ignored (and consequently, the self-optimizer as well) by setting 'Duration of the backtesting' to zero.
This can be done if one wants to replace the internal backtesting with the long-term backtesting done by the Testing Honest Predictor EA.

Please, notice that a frequent self-optimization can considerably slow down the EA.

Read periodically the product comments to see examples of usage.
バージョン 1.8 2015.07.03
It now optimizes and tests the ver. 2.3 of Honest Predictor (paid version) which has a faster (and more stable) execution in comparison with the previous version.
バージョン 1.7 2015.07.01
It now optimizes and tests the ver. 2.2 of Honest Predictor (paid version).

-Added "Trend Prediction Mode" parameter (to be passed to the iHP indicator) that allows the user to choose between the REVERSAL and CONTINUATION trend modes that iHP tries to predict (it won't change anymore during iHP execution).

- A simulation of the development of an initially given balance has been implemented, similarly to what normally done in backtesting forex trading Expert Advisors (see the added parameters below).

- Added "Initial Balance" parameter.

- Added "Single Position Investment" parameter. It represents the amount of money the EA simulates to invest in each position.
If "Risk Factor" is zero, then this investment will be always the same. Otherwise, this parameter is ignored and the investment will be determined automatically according to the "Risk Factor" and the balance
(see below).

- Added "Risk Factor" parameter (in %). If larger than 0, it represents the percentage of the balance that will be invested each time in a position by the EA.
If it is =0, then the investment won't change, being always equal to the "Single Position Investment" parameter.

-Added "Minimum Investment" and "Maximum Investment" parameters to allow the user to set the minimum and maximum values for the automatically determined investment (many brokers have a minimum threshold for the investment to be accepted).

-Now optimization maximizes the balance instead of the profit factor.

-Now, if "Verbosity" is =PRINT_BALANCE, in addition to positions outcomes, also the Balance and the Net Profit will be printed in the Journal every time a position expires.
If "Verbosity" is =SAVE_BALANCE, this information is also written on a file.
This file is saved as "tester\files\TestHonestPredictor.csv" and it is a CSV file, in which each line shows the expiry time of a position, the balance, the net profit and the amount of investment at the same time.
The user may want to use this file to plot a graphical representation (e.g. using Excel) of the Balance development, as it is done by the Strategy Tester with forex trading EA.

Comments will follow regarding the optimization procedure.
バージョン 1.6 2015.06.19
It now optimizes and tests the ver. 2.1 of Honest Predictor (paid version).

-IMPORTANT BUG CORRECTION: now the EA doesn't stop if sufficiently numerous bars are not immediately available to do backtesting. It continues execution until the number of bars is high enough. This allows to do backtesting and optimization on very long times (as is normally done for forex trading).

- Now optimization maximizes the profit factor (f) instead of accuracy. Here, f is defined as the ratio between the final balance and the investment for the single option (assumed to be always the same). It depends on the number of both won and lost positions and on the corresponding broker's payout percentages (see below).
Try the optimization by varying the 'Indicator Threshold' and the 'Expiry Time' and see the results (Optimization Graph in the Strategy Tester)!
It is also interesting to see how the profitability is heavily influenced by the spread (see below).

Comments will follow regarding the optimization procedure.

- Added "Spread" (in pips) parameter to be passed to the iHP indicator. See https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/8700 (ver. 2.1 in "What's new" section).

- Added "Out-of-the-money" position payout parameter (in %, broker-dependent).

- Added "In-the-money" position payout parameter (in %, broker-dependent).
バージョン 1.5 2015.06.08
The possibility to exclude the internal backtesting of the Honest Predictor indicator (iHP) has been introduced: if the "Duration of backtesting in days" Expert parameter is set to 0, then this EA will accept all the positions suggested by iHP.
Thus, the "Minimum Accuracy" and the "Minimum Reliability Level" parameters will be just ignored.

This is especially useful when testing iHP on short timeframes (say, shorter than M15), on which the internal backtesting cannot be done with sufficiently long duration because the number of bars usually available on a chart is not large enough.
バージョン 1.4 2015.05.29
- It now includes Free ver. 2.0 of iHP for testing.
- Minor bugs corrected.
バージョン 1.3 2015.05.19
- Ver. 1.9 of the Free version of iHP included.

Read the Comment I posted on May, 7th, 2015
バージョン 1.2 2015.05.11
- Ver. 1.8 of the Free version of iHP included.
- Added the option "Minimum Reliability Level" to specify the minimum level of the reliability, as indicated by iHP, above which positions are executed.

Read the Comment I posted on May, 7th, 2015