Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra / Perfil

The fundamental focus will shift temporarily from the Dollar over the coming week - just as trend pressure comes into view - with China's NPC meeting and the ECB rate decision drawing traders' anxiety.

US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Tumble Threatens Long-Term Trend Again, FOMC Too Far Away

The Dollar tumbled this past week as a tempered view for Fed rate hikes rendered the currency incapable of taking advantage of the improved sentiment across global markets.

Euro Forecast - Euro Unlikely to Stay Lower Unless ECB Meeting Yields Big Bazooka

Another swell in volatility is a near-certainty across the EUR-crosses with the European Central Bank’s meeting this Thursday. Without a surprise, the ECB seems destined to send the Euro on an early-December 2015 replay.

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD Rebound at Risk as BoE Speaks on U.K. Referendum

After posting the first five-consecutive days of advances since June, GBP/USD stands at risk facing near-term headwinds should Bank of England (BoE) officials endorse a wait-and-see approach ahead of their next interest rate decision on March 17.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Japanese Yen Poised to Gain this week if Big Event Disappoints

A great week for the US S&P 500, Japanese Nikkei 225, and other global financial bellwethers pushed the inversely-correlated Japanese Yen lower against almost all G10 counterparts.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Outlook Hinges on ECB Meeting, China News-Flow

The Australian Dollar will look to the impact of the ECB rate decision on risk appetite trends and news-flow from China’s NPC for fuel to extend the largest rally in four years.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - RBNZ Will Provide Guidance on NZ Dollar’s Recent Flight

The New Zealand Dollar has out-performed every currency aside from its rival Australian Dollar over the last week.

Chinese Yuan Forecast - Yuan To Remain in Focus at the NPC Conference

The offshore Yuan rate (CNH) climbed over 260 pips against the US Dollar on Thursday and extended gains going into the Friday close.

Gold Forecast – All That Glitters is Gold

This title is a line taken from Shakespeare. He actually said ‘all that glisters is not gold,’ but ‘glisters’ was the word for ‘glitters’ in the 17th century, so the saying has held while the English language has evolved.

Post publicado Pivot Points-Hourly

Due to it being a state holiday in Russia on 8th March, 2016, - International Women’s Day - trading of USDRUB and EURRUB currency pairs will be closed.

Trading of these pairs will resume as normal on 9 th

March, 2016.

THE NFP REPORT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK ABOVE 200,000 NEW JOBS IN FEBRUARY

U.S. employment data has been mixed ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. A weak Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Employment Index showing a contraction on Thursday is being balanced against a strong ADP Private payrolls report that beat expectations on Wednesday. The ADP Research Institute reported that US private payrolls grew by 214,000 in February beating the forecast of 185,000. Usually there is a low correlation between the ADP and the NFP due Friday, but aside from the employment change disappointment in January they have consistently beaten expectations in the past four months. The private payrolls report shows manufacturing is still weak with a loss of 9,000 jobs, but the optimism comes from the expansion of the services sector that added 59,000 new jobs.

The USD declined against the EUR after the release of the ISM Employment Index that posted a contraction at 49.7 in February. Overall the U.S. service sector continues to expand albeit at a slower pace, but given the focus on employment data this week investors sold U.S. dollars ahead of what could be a disappointing Non-farm payrolls number. Last month even though the NFP headline number was less than anticipated the fact that wages grew and the unemployment rate was lower was enough to boost the USD.

The NFP will be published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, March 4 at 8:30 am EST. Employment is the strongest pillar of the U.S. economic recovery since the credit crisis and the influence on the Fed's interest rate decision is significant. Economist's forecasts range around 185,000 to 200,000 new jobs added. Anything outside of that range for the biggest forex indicator will set a direction for the USD.

Crude Oil (WTI) (J6) Intraday: supported by a rising trend line.

Prev Top

Pivot: 34.30

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 34.30 with targets @ 35.60 & 36.30 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 34.30 look for further downside with 33.55 & 33.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Gold spot Intraday: further upside.




Pivot: 1248.50





Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1248.50 with targets @ 1268.50 & 1276.00 in extension.





Alternative scenario: below 1248.50 look for further downside with 1240.00 & 1235.00 as targets.





Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails. Prev Next

Pivot: 0.7295

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 0.7295 with targets @ 0.7385 & 0.7420 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7295 look for further downside with 0.7250 & 0.7200 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

USD/JPY Intraday: the bias remains bullish. Prev Next

Pivot: 113.20

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 113.20 with targets @ 114.25 & 114.55 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 113.20 look for further downside with 112.85 & 112.50 as targets.

Comment: the RSI advocates for further upside.

GBP/USD Intraday: the upside prevails. Prev Next

Pivot: 1.4095

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.4095 with targets @ 1.4215 & 1.4255 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.4095 look for further downside with 1.4020 & 1.3980 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails. Prev Next

Pivot: 1.0890

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.0890 with targets @ 1.1000 & 1.1030 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.0890 look for further downside with 1.0850 & 1.0820 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is well directed.