Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra / Perfil

EUR/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.1360.



Pivot: 1.1360

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1360 with targets @ 1.1430 & 1.1455 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1360 look for further downside with 1.1335 & 1.1310 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

NEWS

Monday, Apr 11, 2016 12:06 pm +03:00
DAX 30 Tries to Carve Out Low As Energy Shares Are On The Rise
The DAX 30 has turned less bearish this morning as the sequence of lower swing highs in place since March 18 ended.
Continue Reading

Monday, Apr 11, 2016 5:20 am +03:00
EUR/USD Adrift at Sea, Waiting for ECB and Fed Winds to Blow
Saturday, Apr 9, 2016 6:54 am +03:00
Chinese, Global Growth Forecasts Top Fundamental FX Drivers This Week
Saturday, Apr 9, 2016 3:50 am +03:00
The Practicality of FX Intervention: Japan to China to Mexico

EUR/USD Trader (QuieT)

Attention:
THIS SIGNAL (AND ALL QUIET SIGNALS) ARE TRADING SINGLE TRADE, WITH NO SCALPING, NO GRID & NO MARTINGALE
USING SMART INDICATORS, SMART STRATEGY & SMART FILTER
AUTOMATED TRADING
STARTING FROM 100 USD
ACCEPTING ALL BROKERS AND ALL TYPES
THE MOST KNOWN GOOD RESULTS & LOWEST DD% IN BACK TESTER SETTINGS ARE SELECTED
WORKING IN 1 MINUTE CHART
DON'T TRADE MANUALLY WHILE YOU FOLLOW THIS SIGNAL
VPS (SERVER) IS NEEDED FOR FOLLOWING THIS SIGNAL (OR ANY SIGNAL)
MAX. DD 5.82%
NO STOP LOSS
TAKE CARE!

movers

DOVISH FOMC MINUTES DEPRECIATED DOLLAR BEFORE GLOBAL RISK APPETITE DROP BROUGHT IT BACK

The USD struggled all week to string gains against majors on the back of mixed economic data. The U.S. trade balance showed a higher tan forecasted deficit (-47.1 billion) and a decrease of job openings (5.45 million) put downward pressure on the USD, but the non-manufacturing PMI rose higher than anticipated to 54.5. The release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes shed more light on the conversations that shaped the dovish statement and logically put downward pressure on the greenback.
Thursday risk-off trading punished emerging markets and equities boosting the dollar despite previous trends. Global risk aversion pushed the Japanese Yen higher versus the USD as investors sought safety. The Canadian dollar was able to offset some losses with a monster jobs report that saw the economy add 40,600 jobs; four times the estimate.
The US rally will have to pass the test of monthly retail sales to be announced on Wednesday, April 13 at 8:30 am EDT. American retail sales have remained flat despite a recovery in employment as consumers are saving more. The U.S. economy depends on consumer demand for 70 percent of economic activity and while the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) exceeding expectations will not change the Fed's mind about an interest hike in April, its another sign that consumer sentiment will continue to improve.

Volatility in currency markets had spread into equities, fixed income and other asset classes the past week. US equities dropped by more than 1% ahead of Q1 earning season kick off, with S&P 500 trading in excess of 1% in three of the past five trading days, causing the volatility index VIX to soar by more than 20%. Although U.S. economy isn’t in a recession, corporate earnings are, and Q1 will most likely be the worst since the end of 2008 financial crisis, thanks to the crash in oil prices and strong dollar. But earnings won't be the key catalyst for FX traders the week ahead. Here’s the top events to watch:

China, the platinum sponsor of volatility in first quarter is due to release load of data that’s likely to rock the markets if it deviates from expectations. Monday will be a warm up with inflation data, followed by trade balance on Wednesday, and the key event will be Friday’s GDP figures. China’s data had always been a catalyst

Latest News
Inflation in China grew at a 2.3% year-on-year basis, slightly below forecasts of 2.4%, due mainly to a surge in food prices. Similarly, producer price index from China contracted by less than anticipated, at -4.3% vs expectations of -4.6%, driving optimism that the worst is over with three consecutive months of improving data. The Aussie on the other hand, remained fairly oblivious to the Chinese data, seesawing between gains and losses in early trading thus far – current trading just below 0.7550. Lastly, oil prices have opened this week lower, following last week’s 8% surge, which has pushed USDCAD once again below 1.30, at least for the time being.
Today’s economic calendar is fairly light, with only the US’ Treasury Secretary and the FOMC’s Dudley scheduled to speak later this afternoon. Something of note, the FED has announced a closed door meeting for today, to discuss interest rates. As a reminder, the FED raised interest rates less than a month after the last time they had a meeting like this in November of last year.

US Dollar Forecast – Dollar to Move from Consolidation to Trend, But What Sparks the Move?

The Dollar was little changed this past week – which is an impressive turn of events for the currency considering the previous bouts of painful selling.

British Pound Forecast – British Pound Risks Near-Term Correction on Rising U.K. Inflation

The Bank of England’s (BoE) April 14 policy meeting may spur a limited market reaction as the central bank is widely anticipated to retain its current policy ahead of the referendum in June, but signs of sticky U.K. inflation accompanied by dovish comments from Fed officials may generate a near-term rebound inGBP/USDas U.S. interest-rate expectations falter.

Australian Dollar Forecast – Aussie Dollar Selloff May Continue on Jobs Data, Risk Aversion

The Australian Dollar may continue downward after last week’s losses as a soft jobs report boosts RBA rate cut bets while US economic and earnings news-flow drives risk aversion.

Chinese Yuan (CNH) Forecast – A Heavy Calendar Has Chinese Yuan at Risk from Home: GDP, CPI Due

The onshore and offshore Yuan rates moved in opposite directions this past week: the offshore Yuan (CNH) held a bearish position against the US Dollar while the onshore Yuan (CNY) closed slightly higher on Friday.

Canadian Dollar Forecast - Strong Employment Report Primes CAD for Bank of Canada

The Canadian Dollar has been on a run that likely has more gas in the proverbial tank that could mean furtherCADgains.

Gold Forecast – Gold to Remain Supported on Dovish Fed- Bullish Invalidation 1193

Gold pricerallied for a second consecutive week with the precious metal advancing 1.26% to trade at 1237 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

EUR/USD

The Euro keep fighting for a clear direction in the near-term as prices continue to trade sideways between 1.1430/50 zone in the upside and 1.1335/00 in the downside.

Consequently, we maintain our neutral outlook in the short-term while in the daily chart; the trend remains bullish as far as the single currency keep trading above 1.1140 level.

In the meantime, momentum indicators began to show some signs of slowdown in the near-term, which may keep the scenario of a downside correction likely, especially if the pair breaks below 1.1335 hourly support.

Support: 1.1335-1.1300-1.1250

Resistance: 1.1450-1.1500-1.1710

The combination of risk aversion and falling commodity prices this trading week may have provided a foundation for bullish investors to install another round of buying momentum in Gold. I remain bullish on the yellow metal and the IMF’s gloomy outlook of global growth coupled with a cautious Fed may continue to boost this metal’s attraction. A key deciding factor for further inclines to come may be Dollar weakness, which could trigger another sharp incline towards $1250 and potentially higher. Market participants should keep in mind that factors such as interest rate hike expectations, Dollar strength, and risk appetite were the factors that kept Gold capped in 2015. With these factors rapidly fading away, Gold bulls have been unchained consequently opening a path for a positive 2016. From a technical standpoint, previous light resistance around $1235 could act as a dynamic support for a surge towards $1250.

Crude Oil (WTI) (K6) Intraday: further advance.



Pivot: 37.44

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 37.44 with targets @ 39.00 & 39.85 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 37.44 look for further downside with 36.70 & 36.16 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is well directed.

Gold spot Intraday: under pressure.



Pivot: 1243.30

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1243.30 with targets @ 1226.00 & 1220.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1243.30 look for further upside with 1249.50 & 1255.50 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

AUD/USD Intraday: rebound.



Pivot: 0.7490

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 0.7490 with targets @ 0.7590 & 0.7635 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7490 look for further downside with 0.7455 & 0.7420 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is well directed.

USD/JPY Intraday: key resistance at 109.30.



Pivot: 109.30

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 109.30 with targets @ 107.70 & 107.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 109.30 look for further upside with 109.95 & 110.50 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.