Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra / Perfil

AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 0.7520

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 0.7520 with targets @ 0.7440 & 0.7410 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 0.7520 look for further upside with 0.7550 & 0.7590 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

USD/JPY Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 106.10

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 106.10 with targets @ 107.45 & 107.85 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 106.10 look for further downside with 105.50 & 105.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

GBP/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 1.4575

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.4575 with targets @ 1.4465 & 1.4400 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.4575 look for further upside with 1.4620 & 1.4660 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 1.1540

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1540 with targets @ 1.1450 & 1.1415 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.1540 look for further upside with 1.1600 & 1.1660 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD succeeded to overtake 1.2585 peak, which reinforce the probability of a bullish reversal in the near-term.

Actually, the pair is trading near the psychological barrier of 1.2700 and an hourly close above this level will trigger another rally in the direction of 1.2750 peak before to find new sellers again.

While in the daily chart, the pair will remain under pressure as far as 1.2995 peak is in place.

Finally, our outlook turned positive for the coming hours and 1.2750 area will be under our radar.

Support 1.2450-1.2330-1.2175

Resistance: 1.2700-1.2750-1.2820

Crude Oil (WTI) (M6) Intraday: key resistance at 44.18.

Pivot: 44.18

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 44.18 with targets @ 43.16 & 42.56 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 44.18 look for further upside with 44.66 & 45.35 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 0.7550

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 0.7550 with targets @ 0.7465 & 0.7440 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 0.7550 look for further upside with 0.7590 & 0.7630 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.

Gold spot Intraday: the downside prevails.





Pivot: 1291.00





Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1291.00 with targets @ 1270.00 & 1264.00 in extension.





Alternative scenario: above 1291.00 look for further upside with 1301.50 & 1314.00 as targets.





Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

USD/JPY Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 106.10

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 106.10 with targets @ 107.45 & 107.85 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 106.10 look for further downside with 105.50 & 104.70 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

GBP/USD Intraday: under pressure. Prev Next

Pivot: 1.4600

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.4600 with targets @ 1.4465 & 1.4400 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.4600 look for further upside with 1.4660 & 1.4715 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is badly directed.

EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 1.1540

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1540 with targets @ 1.1450 & 1.1415 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.1540 look for further upside with 1.1600 & 1.1660 as targets.

Comment: The pair broke below the lower boundary of a bullish channel.

RBA takes the plunge

The RBA cut rates overnight, a move that was no wholly a surprise given the much weaker than expected inflation data seen last week. That said, when combined with the tone from the accompanying statement, the Aussie plunged more than 1 big figure to the 0.7560 area, before staging a modest recovery into the European close. One of the factors holding back the RBA in recent months has been the housing market, but here the RBA noted the strengthening lending standards and easing price pressures, which effectively removed the last barrier to easier policy. The move is the latest in an easing cycle that started with rates at 4.75% back in mid-2011, the longest pause being see mid-2013 to late 2014, where rates sat at 2.50%. The effect has been to move the Aussie from over-valued carry trade favourite to a more ‘rank and file’ commodity currency. The move will focus attention on both the RBNZ and BoC, both of whom are now stronger candidates for lower rates.

The other stand-out in overnight price action has been the yen, where we’ve seen a push below the 106.00 level on USDJPY. BoJ Governor Kuroda yesterday warned of the consequences of yen strength on the economy and once again re-iterated the BoJ’s willingness to take further policy measures to hit the 2% inflation target. But markets have become pretty immune to such talk. The yen remains under-valued on many longer-term measures, so for now markets are betting that this will dominate anything that the authorities can do to weaken the currency. The generally weaker tone to the US dollar has also seen the euro and sterling push through key levels, with EURUSD through the 1.1495 mid-October high and cable now at levels seen early Jan. The data calendar is on the light side today for FX markets, with just manufacturing PMI data for the UK at 08:30 GMT and jobs data in New Zealand the next key focus overnight.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD remain under pressure as far as 1.2995 peak is in place, and only a break above this level will call for a larger correction.

In the near-term, 1.2585 peak represents the bearish pivot in the near-term and should continue to cap any recovery attempt in the coming hours. In addition, we saw a break below 1.2500 psychological support, which can be an additional negative signal in this pair.

Finally, our outlook remains strongly negative as bears continue to dominate this pair.

Support 1.2500-1.2330-1.2175

Resistance: 1.2585-1.2610-1.2695

Post publicado Pivot Points Hourly