Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
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8+ años
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Developer en Beirut
Llevo en el mercado de divisas desde 2005.

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Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Greece’s creditors reached a deal to avoid a summer car crash in a way that only they know how, involving extension of maturities, adjustment of interest rate payments with a good dose of things still to be decided, some of them after the German federal elections next year. The often used headline in recent years was “kicking the can down the road” and for the most part, this amounts to another example of that. The IMF remains involved, but retains its demand for meaningful debt restructuring. Still, for the single currency, this has removed one of the potential risks for the summer, with the deal unusually being reached comfortably ahead of the loan disbursement next month.

Yesterday saw a sharp move lower on EURGBP, pushing 3.5 month lows as the single currency was favoured vs. the dollar by yen bulls. On the other side, sterling is gaining more confidence that the EU referendum will see a win for the ‘remain’ side next month. The Bank of England Governor had a charged appearance in front of the Treasury Select Committee yesterday largely focusing on the issue. Sterling is again, so far, the strongest performing major currency this week. For today, there may be a stronger focus than usual on the German IFO data at 08:00 GMT, with yesterday’s GDP data showing a better than expected balance of growth for Germany. The market expects a modest rise in the headline index. The yen remains cautiously optimistic going into the G7 meeting this coming weekend, USDJPY struggling for a sustained push above the 110 level.
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Latest News
Figures out of Germany showed that economic sentiment in the country fell in May, mostly due to uncertainties regarding the economic outlook and the upcoming “Brexit” referendum. Meanwhile, yesterday's new home sales in the US smashed estimates, coming in at 619K vs forecasts of 521K, causing EURUSD to fall 0.8% on the day. GBPUSD in the meantime gained 0.9% yesterday, as the stay camp continues to gain momentum ahead of the June 23 referendum vote. Eurogroup ministers agreed on a formal deal with Greece to release 10.3B Euros after Greek officials agreed on further austerity measures. Lastly, the FED’s James Bullard stated that “there’s no reason to prejudge June”, however that labour data suggested it was time to hike interest rates in the summer.
Today’s economic calendar begins with German IFO business climate, expected to have risen to 106.9 from 106.6. This report comes after yesterday’s disappointing economic sentiment figures from the region which showed that the population was uncertain regarding Germany’s economic outlook. The spotlight for today will turn to Canada’s central bank and their announcement regarding the country’s latest monetary policy stance. The majority of analysts believe that the BOC will leave interest rates unchanged, yet highlight the damaging effects on the economy from the fall in the price of oil.
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
It’s the Aussie and euro feeling the pressure at the start of the European session and for very different reasons. The Aussie has reacted to comments from RBA Governor Stevens, where he talked in more detail about the continued low inflation outlook, with indications that he expects this to persistent for foreseeable future. This has given some life to expectations of further rate cuts, hence the push towards the 0.7060 level as we enter the European session. Meanwhile, the euro appears to be finding the going tougher as the dollar becomes more confident regarding the prospects of a tightening of rates as early as June. Furthermore, ahead of the main G7 meeting later this week, investors are becoming more cautious of going long the yen vs. the USD, even though the indications from this weekend’s meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors suggested there was a wide gap between the US and Japan on the appropriate response.

With less than a month go to until the EU referendum in the UK, BoE Governor Mark Carney appears before the UK Parliamentary Treasury Committee today. He’s been in some hot water in recent weeks for appearing to favour remaining in the EU, which does not fit with the Bank’s remit of independence and impartiality. Expect him to have a tough time of it. Meanwhile, the currency appears to be gaining more confidence that the result will be a win for the ‘remain’ camp, but the result is far from a done deal at this point in time. As such, we’re likely to see sterling continuing to take greater notice of polls in the coming days.
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Today's important market news Time: GMT
Med 08:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing
Med 09:00 Ger ZEW Survey - Current Situation
Med 09:00 Ger ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment
High 09:00 UK Inflation Report Hearings
Med 09:00 EU ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment
Med 12:00 EU Eurogroup meeting
Med 12:00 EU EU Financial Stability Review
Med 14:00 US New Home Sales (MoM)
Med 14:00 US New Home Sales Change (MoM)
Med 22:45 AUS Trade Balance (MoM)
Med 22:45 AUS Exports
Med 22:45 AUS Trade Balance (YoY)
Med 22:45 AUS Imports
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
NEWS

Monday, May 23, 2016 5:41 pm +03:00
Webinar: USD Crosses in Focus as Index Eyes Resistance
Setups we’re tracking as the USDOLLAR attempts a fourth consecutive week of gains. Here are the updated targets & invalidation le...Continue Reading

Monday, May 23, 2016 3:00 pm +03:00
USDOLLAR Index Turns to Fed Speakers for Breakout Catalysts
Monday, May 23, 2016 11:37 am +03:00
EUR/USD Slightly Lower After Soft Markit Euro-Zone PMI Figures
Monday, May 23, 2016 6:06 am +03:00
Euro to Look Past PMI Data, US Dollar May Rise on Fed Comments
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Latest News

The USDJPY pair dipped below 110 this morning following the release of disappointing Japanese trade balance and manufacturing data which showed that exports fell 10.1% year-on-year in April. Boston’s FED president, Eric Rosengreen, stated that the US is on the edge of meeting most of the economic conditions set forth in order for FOMC members to be able to raise interest rates at the June meeting. Despite the latest chatter by hawkish FED members, the options markets has begun pricing in less of a chance for the US to raise interest rates in June – currently at 26% versus last week’s +30% probability.

Europe will publish services and manufacturing PMI figures this morning, both expected to have risen marginally in April. The FED’s James Bullard (Voter, Hawk) is scheduled to speak in Beijing this morning about US economic and monetary policy. The North American session will see volumes slightly lower as Canadian banks are off due to a public holiday. Meanwhile, the US is anticipated to show that the manufacturing sector slightly rebounded in April as it releases its latest flash manufacturing PMI figures.
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra

Pivot Points WEEKLY

23 mayo 2016, 00:44
Pivot Points WEEKLY Last Updated: May 23, 1:00 am +03:00 Symbol S3 S2 S1 P R1 R2 R3 EUR/USD 1.091 1.10787 1.11473 1.12474 1.1316 1.14161 1.15848 USD/JPY 105.456 107.581 108.835 109.706 110.96 111.831 113.956 GBP/USD 1.38334 1.41648 1.43297 1.44962 1.46611 1.48276 1.5159 USD/CHF 0.94788 0.96662 0...
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra

Pivot Points Daily

23 mayo 2016, 00:40
Pivot Points Daily Last Updated: May 23, 1:00 am +03:00 Symbol S3 S2 S1 P R1 R2 R3 EUR/USD 1.11339 1.11748 1.11953 1.12157 1.12362 1.12566 1.12975 USD/JPY 108.69 109.429 109.759 110.168 110.498 110.907 111.646 GBP/USD 1.42753 1.44028 1.44487 1.45303 1.45762 1.46578 1.47853 USD/CHF 0.98396 0...
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Post publicado Pivot Points Hourly
Pivot Points Hourly Last Updated: May 23, 1:00 am +03:00 Symbol S3 S2 S1 P R1 R2 R3 EUR/USD 1.12024 1.12101 1.1213 1.12178 1.12207 1.12255 1.12332 USD/JPY 109.84 109.983 110.036 110.126 110.179 110.269 110.412 GBP/USD 1.44705 1.44824 1.44885 1.44943 1.45004 1.45062 1.45181 USD/CHF 0.98669 0...