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In the forex market for over 5 years . In trade used technical analysis indicators , as well as economic and political news. If you are interested in more conservative and lucrative trade might trust.
Evgeniy Piskachev
Сегодня на валютных и товарных рынках наблюдается сильная волатильность, в течение сессии нефть марки WTI потеряла в цене 3%. Инфляция в Великобритании в годовом выражении по ноябрь снизилась до 1,0%, а доллар достиг исторических максимумов относительно рубля, несмотря на неожиданное повышение ставки ЦБ РФ с 10,50% до 17%. Тем временем, спекулятивные сделки в сочетании с политическими рисками толкает пару доллар-турецкая лира к новым историческим максимумам, а спред ставок в еврозоне и Турции полностью компенсирован резким повышением мнимой волатильности.
Радикальные меры ЦБ РФ
Совершенно неожиданным решением Центробанк РФ заявил, что поднимет свою ставку рефинансирования с 10,50 до 17,0%, с незамедлительным вступлением в силу. На первый взгляд, это решение преследует цель замедлить обрушение рубля и снижение инфляционных рисков. Однако такое неожиданное и масштабное изменение ставк отдает паникой и отчаянием. Повышение ставки произошло на фоне крупнейшего однодневного падения курса рубля и является самым крупным повышением учетной ставки с 1998 г. накануне дефолта России. При этом, несмотря на соблазнительно высокую доходность, растет вероятность того, что Россия скатится в рецессию из-за снижения нефтяных цен, которое делает любые длинные позиции в пользу России крайне рискованными.
Кроме того, при значительных изменениях высокодоходных кредитных спредов, важным стратегическим шагом будет уйти от рискованных активов. И прямо сейчас Россия считается одним из наиболее рискованных активов на рынке. Неясно, сможет ли сегодняшнее повышение ставки, несмотря на его масштаб, прекратить снижение рубля. В дополнение к геополитической напряженности, на нефтяной экспорт приходится более 50% дохода России, так что при ценах на нефть ниже 55 понижательное давление на рубль вряд ли ослабнет.
Инфляция в Великобритании опустилась до 1%
Британская инфляция снизилась до 0,3% в месячном исчислении за ноябрь (против ожидавшихся 0,0% и предыдущих 0,1%), что снижает инфляцию в годовом исчислении до 1,0%, что значительно ниже, чем ожидавшиеся 1,2% (против 1,3% в предыдущем месяце). Из-за того, что в целом слабость ИПЦ была уже учтена, курс фунта к доллару быстро оттолкнулся вверх, опустившись до 1,5612.
В своем выступлении по отчету о финансовой стабильности, председатель Банка Англии Карни прокомментировал ситуацию на жилищном рынке, а также с инфляцией и ценами на нефть. По словам Карни, жилищный рынок потерял импульс, а глвной его проблемой является «недостаток предложения», но изменение государственных пошлин и низкие ставки могут его оживить. Карни подчернул, что снижение цен на нефть имеет положительное значение, т. к. оно может поддержать экономический рост, хотя и несет в себе риски для стабильности. «Инфляционные ожидания могут продолжить снижение», – добавил он. Это связано с тем, что нефть опускается до новых минимумов. В сочетании со непреклонной позиции по фискальным аспектам (консолидация), у Банка Англии есть мало свободы для неожиданно «ястребиного» хода, и мы продолжаем прогнозировать снижение курса фунта.
Мнимая волатильность в паре евро-лира поднялась выше 13%
Достигнув нашего верхнего целевого уровня в 2,75, курс евро к турецкой лире резко сменил направление. Главным сигналом снижения является всплеск волатильности; повышение месячной мнимой волатильности с 8-9% до более чем 13% автоматически ликвидировало наш медвежий колл-опцион в паре евро-лира в понедельник. Мы ожидаем, что отток спекулятивного капитала увеличит повышательное давление на курс евро к лиру после его повышения выше 200-дневного СС (2,8790). Пара евро-лира сейчас проверят на прочность уровни сопротивления 2,9488 /3,00 (38,2% уровня Фибоначчи от снижения января-ноября / психологическая отметка). Трехмесячный кроссвалютный базис вновь растет вместе с валютной волатильность, подтверждая, что спред ставок сейчас полностью компенсируется негативной для лиры волатильностью.
Курс доллара к лире достингул нового исторического максимума в 2,3944. Спрос на доллар накануне заседания ФРС должен помочь протолкнуть пару через предложения продажи на 2,40 в следующие торговые сессии. Независимо от новостей из ЕЦБ и ФРС, лира должна пройти через новую волну снижения, т. к. происходит глобальный отток из рискованных активов, что также подкрепляется недавно возросшей геополитической напряженностью. Средняя межбанковская ставка репо достигает верхнего предела коридора суточной ставки ЦБТ (11,25%). Мы готовы к тому, что ЦБТ вмешается, чтобы сгладить снижение лиры.
EUR/TRYEUR/TRY
EUR/USD: Курс евро к доллару закрепляется. Недавняя последовательность более низких максимумов должна быть сломлена, чтобы краткосрочное усиление было поддержано. Часовые уровни сопротивления находятся на отметках 1,2495 и 1,2532. Часовые уровни поддержки находятся на 1,2415 (минимум 15 декабря 2014) и 1,2362. В более долгосрочной перспективе, пара евро-доллар движется в нисходящем тренде с мая 2014 г. Оставление сильной зоны поддержки между 1,2755 (минимум 9 июля 2013 г.) и 1,2662 (минимум 13 ноября 2012 г.) указывает на снижение к сильному уровню поддержки на 1,2043 (минимум 24 июля 2012 г.). Ключевой уровень сопротивления находится на 1,2600 (максимум 19 ноября 2014 г.).
GBP/USD: Курс фунта к доллару снизился до уровня сопротивления, на который указывает его нисходящий диапазон. Часовой уровень сопротивления составляет 1,5757. Часовые уровни поддержки — на отметках 1,5602 (минимум 15 декабря 2014 г.) и 1,5542. Ключевой горизонтальный уровень сопротивления находится на отметке 1,5826. В более долгосрочной перспективе техническая структура негативная, до тех пор, пока котировки остаются ниже ключевого сопротивления на отметке 1,5945 (максимум 11 ноября 2014 г.). Умеренный риск снижения показывает испытание уровня поддержки на 1,5423 (минимум 14 августа 2013 г.). Еще один уровень поддержки находится на 1,5102 (минимум 2 августа 2013 г.).
USD/JPY: Пара доллар-иена остается слабой, на что указывает снижение ниже уровня поддержки 117,24. Еще один ключевой уровень поддержки находится на 115,46 (также см. 38,2% коррекцию). Часовые уровни сопротивления — 118,01 (суточный максимум) и 119,09 (максимум 15 декабря 2014, см. также линию нисходящего тренда). В долгосрочной перспективе ситуация благоприятна для быков, пока держится ключевой уровень поддержки 110,09 (максимум 1 октября 2014 г.). Учитывая сильное сопротивление на 124,14 (максимум 22 июня 2007 г.) и слишком продолжительное ралли доллара, повышаются шансы на среднесрочную консолидацию. Однако, сейчас нет признаков, указывающих на конец долгосрочного бычьего тренда.
USD/CHF: Курс доллара к франку опустиля ниже линии восходящего тренда, указывая на сохраняющееся понижательное давление. Часовой уровень поддержки находится на уровне 0,9595. Часовые уровни сопротивления задаются краткосрочным нисходящим диапазоном (около 0,9687) и 0,9723. В более долгосрочной перспективе техническая структура способствует полному возврату большой коррективной фазы, начавшейся в июле 2012 г. Ключевой диапазон сопротивления находится между 0,9972 (максимум 24 июля 2012 г.) и 1,0067 (максимум 1 декабря 2010 г.). Ключевой уровень поддержки находится на 0,9351 (минимум 19 ноября 2014 г.).
Радикальные меры ЦБ РФ
Совершенно неожиданным решением Центробанк РФ заявил, что поднимет свою ставку рефинансирования с 10,50 до 17,0%, с незамедлительным вступлением в силу. На первый взгляд, это решение преследует цель замедлить обрушение рубля и снижение инфляционных рисков. Однако такое неожиданное и масштабное изменение ставк отдает паникой и отчаянием. Повышение ставки произошло на фоне крупнейшего однодневного падения курса рубля и является самым крупным повышением учетной ставки с 1998 г. накануне дефолта России. При этом, несмотря на соблазнительно высокую доходность, растет вероятность того, что Россия скатится в рецессию из-за снижения нефтяных цен, которое делает любые длинные позиции в пользу России крайне рискованными.
Кроме того, при значительных изменениях высокодоходных кредитных спредов, важным стратегическим шагом будет уйти от рискованных активов. И прямо сейчас Россия считается одним из наиболее рискованных активов на рынке. Неясно, сможет ли сегодняшнее повышение ставки, несмотря на его масштаб, прекратить снижение рубля. В дополнение к геополитической напряженности, на нефтяной экспорт приходится более 50% дохода России, так что при ценах на нефть ниже 55 понижательное давление на рубль вряд ли ослабнет.
Инфляция в Великобритании опустилась до 1%
Британская инфляция снизилась до 0,3% в месячном исчислении за ноябрь (против ожидавшихся 0,0% и предыдущих 0,1%), что снижает инфляцию в годовом исчислении до 1,0%, что значительно ниже, чем ожидавшиеся 1,2% (против 1,3% в предыдущем месяце). Из-за того, что в целом слабость ИПЦ была уже учтена, курс фунта к доллару быстро оттолкнулся вверх, опустившись до 1,5612.
В своем выступлении по отчету о финансовой стабильности, председатель Банка Англии Карни прокомментировал ситуацию на жилищном рынке, а также с инфляцией и ценами на нефть. По словам Карни, жилищный рынок потерял импульс, а глвной его проблемой является «недостаток предложения», но изменение государственных пошлин и низкие ставки могут его оживить. Карни подчернул, что снижение цен на нефть имеет положительное значение, т. к. оно может поддержать экономический рост, хотя и несет в себе риски для стабильности. «Инфляционные ожидания могут продолжить снижение», – добавил он. Это связано с тем, что нефть опускается до новых минимумов. В сочетании со непреклонной позиции по фискальным аспектам (консолидация), у Банка Англии есть мало свободы для неожиданно «ястребиного» хода, и мы продолжаем прогнозировать снижение курса фунта.
Мнимая волатильность в паре евро-лира поднялась выше 13%
Достигнув нашего верхнего целевого уровня в 2,75, курс евро к турецкой лире резко сменил направление. Главным сигналом снижения является всплеск волатильности; повышение месячной мнимой волатильности с 8-9% до более чем 13% автоматически ликвидировало наш медвежий колл-опцион в паре евро-лира в понедельник. Мы ожидаем, что отток спекулятивного капитала увеличит повышательное давление на курс евро к лиру после его повышения выше 200-дневного СС (2,8790). Пара евро-лира сейчас проверят на прочность уровни сопротивления 2,9488 /3,00 (38,2% уровня Фибоначчи от снижения января-ноября / психологическая отметка). Трехмесячный кроссвалютный базис вновь растет вместе с валютной волатильность, подтверждая, что спред ставок сейчас полностью компенсируется негативной для лиры волатильностью.
Курс доллара к лире достингул нового исторического максимума в 2,3944. Спрос на доллар накануне заседания ФРС должен помочь протолкнуть пару через предложения продажи на 2,40 в следующие торговые сессии. Независимо от новостей из ЕЦБ и ФРС, лира должна пройти через новую волну снижения, т. к. происходит глобальный отток из рискованных активов, что также подкрепляется недавно возросшей геополитической напряженностью. Средняя межбанковская ставка репо достигает верхнего предела коридора суточной ставки ЦБТ (11,25%). Мы готовы к тому, что ЦБТ вмешается, чтобы сгладить снижение лиры.
EUR/TRYEUR/TRY
EUR/USD: Курс евро к доллару закрепляется. Недавняя последовательность более низких максимумов должна быть сломлена, чтобы краткосрочное усиление было поддержано. Часовые уровни сопротивления находятся на отметках 1,2495 и 1,2532. Часовые уровни поддержки находятся на 1,2415 (минимум 15 декабря 2014) и 1,2362. В более долгосрочной перспективе, пара евро-доллар движется в нисходящем тренде с мая 2014 г. Оставление сильной зоны поддержки между 1,2755 (минимум 9 июля 2013 г.) и 1,2662 (минимум 13 ноября 2012 г.) указывает на снижение к сильному уровню поддержки на 1,2043 (минимум 24 июля 2012 г.). Ключевой уровень сопротивления находится на 1,2600 (максимум 19 ноября 2014 г.).
GBP/USD: Курс фунта к доллару снизился до уровня сопротивления, на который указывает его нисходящий диапазон. Часовой уровень сопротивления составляет 1,5757. Часовые уровни поддержки — на отметках 1,5602 (минимум 15 декабря 2014 г.) и 1,5542. Ключевой горизонтальный уровень сопротивления находится на отметке 1,5826. В более долгосрочной перспективе техническая структура негативная, до тех пор, пока котировки остаются ниже ключевого сопротивления на отметке 1,5945 (максимум 11 ноября 2014 г.). Умеренный риск снижения показывает испытание уровня поддержки на 1,5423 (минимум 14 августа 2013 г.). Еще один уровень поддержки находится на 1,5102 (минимум 2 августа 2013 г.).
USD/JPY: Пара доллар-иена остается слабой, на что указывает снижение ниже уровня поддержки 117,24. Еще один ключевой уровень поддержки находится на 115,46 (также см. 38,2% коррекцию). Часовые уровни сопротивления — 118,01 (суточный максимум) и 119,09 (максимум 15 декабря 2014, см. также линию нисходящего тренда). В долгосрочной перспективе ситуация благоприятна для быков, пока держится ключевой уровень поддержки 110,09 (максимум 1 октября 2014 г.). Учитывая сильное сопротивление на 124,14 (максимум 22 июня 2007 г.) и слишком продолжительное ралли доллара, повышаются шансы на среднесрочную консолидацию. Однако, сейчас нет признаков, указывающих на конец долгосрочного бычьего тренда.
USD/CHF: Курс доллара к франку опустиля ниже линии восходящего тренда, указывая на сохраняющееся понижательное давление. Часовой уровень поддержки находится на уровне 0,9595. Часовые уровни сопротивления задаются краткосрочным нисходящим диапазоном (около 0,9687) и 0,9723. В более долгосрочной перспективе техническая структура способствует полному возврату большой коррективной фазы, начавшейся в июле 2012 г. Ключевой диапазон сопротивления находится между 0,9972 (максимум 24 июля 2012 г.) и 1,0067 (максимум 1 декабря 2010 г.). Ключевой уровень поддержки находится на 0,9351 (минимум 19 ноября 2014 г.).
· 11
Evgeniy Piskachev
Post publicado Можно ли остановить рубль?
Вчера Центральный БАНК в ходе экстренного заседания поднял ключевую ставку до рекордных 17%. Однако даже это не помогло стабилизировать курс рубля. На валютном рынке началась паника...
· 7
260
Evgeniy Piskachev
Post publicado Ралли доллара продолжатся!!!!
Американский доллар начинает новую неделю ростом против всех основных валют за исключением японской иены, которая начала небольшую коррекцию после достижения очередных локальных минимумов...
· 7
183
Evgeniy Piskachev
Post publicado Brent зациклилась на негативе
Возврату котировок Brent к области пятилетнего минимума способствовала информация о росте занятости вне сельскохозяйственного сектора США на 321 тыс. в ноябре...
· 5
104
Evgeniy Piskachev
Post publicado Евро в руках у Марио Драги
Падение EUR/USD к уровню 28-месячного минимума в преддверии декабрьского заседания ЕЦБ породило слухи о том, что в котировках уже заложен факт «голубиной» риторики Марио Драги и снижения прогнозов по инфляции в 2015-2016 годах с текущих 1,1-1,4...
· 7
194
Evgeniy Piskachev
Post publicado Заседание ОПЕК: слухи и ожидания
Цены на нефть замерли в ожидании заседания ОПЕК. В преддверии мероприятия рынок полон слухов и интриг. Накануне в СМИ появилась информация о том, что ОПЕК может освободить от снижения добычи нефти Ирак, Иран и Ливию, в связи с тем, что производство в этих странах и так низкое...
· 7
334
Evgeniy Piskachev
Post publicado Торговый план на 27 ноября
EUR/USD на этой неделе восстановила позиции, но держится ниже отметки 1.2500 на европейских торгах. Пробой этого уровня наверх откроет путь для нового ретеста уровней 1.2550 и 1.2600. В четверг в зоне евро выйдет блок данных средней важности во главе с инфляцией в Германии за ноябрь...
· 6
193
Evgeniy Piskachev
The capital markets are mostly quiet amid a light news stream, and ahead of three key events in the coming days, with US markets closed tomorrow and light participation expected on Friday. The key events are tomorrow's OPEC meeting, the flash euro area inflation reading on Friday, and month-end portfolio and hedge adjustments.
The odds of a substantial output cut from OPEC appear to have slipped. The Saudi oil minister continues to play down the need for output cuts, apparently on grounds that to stabilize the oil market, more than OPEC cuts are necessary. Although there have been some, suggestions that Russia could cut output to help facilitate an OPEC cut were not seen as particularly credible. A Rosneft (MCX:ROSN) official was quoted on the newswires indicating Russia does not plan on reducing its output.
Simply put, as a cartel, OPEC ostensibly is interested in keeping prices higher than they would otherwise be. However, for numerous reasons, OPEC is not the price setter it once was. Especially with the rise of US output, there has been a significant shift in the underlying fundamentals, and this requires a new strategy. Essentially, prices may have to fall to levels that begin curtailing production in a significant way. This is seen as closer to $70 for Brent and $60-$65 for WTI.
Part of the challenge is that in industries that have high fixed costs, which in this case may be more a function of fiscal need than the cost of production, there are incentives to produce even at a loss. Or worse, increase production in the face of falling prices to try to preserve revenue levels. Of course, this serves to exacerbate the problem.
The failure of OPEC to indicate a serious cut in output will likely encourage fresh selling of oil. This would likely support sovereign bond markets and could support equity markets, outside of energy. It may mean little relief for high yield bond market indices for which energy sector bonds account for a significant part.
The continued fall in oil prices won't do the ECB any favors in its battle to arrest disinflationary forces. It will report the flash November CPI on Friday, ahead of next week's ECB meeting. Although some economists/analysts are predicting a sovereign bond purchase plan will be unveiled, we are less sanguine. We understand recent comments as indicating that a consensus favors waiting until next year to see the second takedown of the TLTRO, which is expected to be substantially more than the first, and the covered bond and ABS purchases.
We continue to be impressed with the legal, political and operation challenges of a sovereign bond purchase program in the EMU. Moreover, we can't help but wonder if all this speculation of sovereign purchases distracts from 1) the existing extremely accommodative stance--negative deposit rate, full allotment of refi operations at a fixed rate just above zero, and 2) the need for structural reforms to boost growth potential and support aggregate demand.
The main economic news today has been the second look at UK Q3 GDP. Although the 0.7% quarter-over-quarter growth was left unchanged, the details were disappointing. Although private consumption edged up (0.8% from 0.6%), it was government spending that really was the standout. Despite the talk about Tory austerity, government spending rose 1.1%. The market expected a 0.2% increase. Business INVESTMENT fell 0.7% (a 2.3% increase was expected after a 3.3% rise in Q2). Exports fell 0.4%, while the market had expected a 0.1% decline. Imports jumped 1.4% after having fallen 0.3% in Q2.
Sterling looks to be tracking short-sterling futures. The December 2015 contract initially ticked up to new highs, but then reversed. This coincided with sterling falling on the news, but then recovering to back to session highs. The key is $1.5740 on the upside. A move through there could see a quick move toward $1.58, were sellers likely lurking.
The dollar has lost some momentum against the yen. Initial support is being tested near JPY117.70-80. A break could force a bigger short squeeze in the yen and push the dollar toward JPY117.00. Former MOF official, Sakakibara has opined that the 14% fall in the yen since mid-year has largely run its course. This echoes comments by some current officials, like Finance Minister Aso. Separately, we note that Sakakibara warned that the LDP will likely lose more seats in the December 14 snap-election than many anticipate. According to newswires he has intimated that a loss of 100 or more seats could force Abe to step down. This would indeed be a shock to investors.
Due to the holiday tomorrow, the US economic diary is chock-full today. The initial focus will be on the volatile durable goods orders for insight into business INVESTMENT. Personal consumption and expenditure data will be helpful for economists to firm up Q4 GDP forecasts. Note that the core PCE deflator is expected to be unchanged at 1.5%.
Later in the US morning, the Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and pending and new home sales will be reported. The Chicago PMI is often correlated with the national figures while the University of Michigan’s measure of consumer confidence is highly correlated with the equity market. The drop in gasoline prices and improvement in the labor market may help as well to lift the measure toward 90 in its final read. Small improvement is expected in the housing data. The bottom line is that the slew of data is unlikely to distract from the US-friendly divergence theme.
The odds of a substantial output cut from OPEC appear to have slipped. The Saudi oil minister continues to play down the need for output cuts, apparently on grounds that to stabilize the oil market, more than OPEC cuts are necessary. Although there have been some, suggestions that Russia could cut output to help facilitate an OPEC cut were not seen as particularly credible. A Rosneft (MCX:ROSN) official was quoted on the newswires indicating Russia does not plan on reducing its output.
Simply put, as a cartel, OPEC ostensibly is interested in keeping prices higher than they would otherwise be. However, for numerous reasons, OPEC is not the price setter it once was. Especially with the rise of US output, there has been a significant shift in the underlying fundamentals, and this requires a new strategy. Essentially, prices may have to fall to levels that begin curtailing production in a significant way. This is seen as closer to $70 for Brent and $60-$65 for WTI.
Part of the challenge is that in industries that have high fixed costs, which in this case may be more a function of fiscal need than the cost of production, there are incentives to produce even at a loss. Or worse, increase production in the face of falling prices to try to preserve revenue levels. Of course, this serves to exacerbate the problem.
The failure of OPEC to indicate a serious cut in output will likely encourage fresh selling of oil. This would likely support sovereign bond markets and could support equity markets, outside of energy. It may mean little relief for high yield bond market indices for which energy sector bonds account for a significant part.
The continued fall in oil prices won't do the ECB any favors in its battle to arrest disinflationary forces. It will report the flash November CPI on Friday, ahead of next week's ECB meeting. Although some economists/analysts are predicting a sovereign bond purchase plan will be unveiled, we are less sanguine. We understand recent comments as indicating that a consensus favors waiting until next year to see the second takedown of the TLTRO, which is expected to be substantially more than the first, and the covered bond and ABS purchases.
We continue to be impressed with the legal, political and operation challenges of a sovereign bond purchase program in the EMU. Moreover, we can't help but wonder if all this speculation of sovereign purchases distracts from 1) the existing extremely accommodative stance--negative deposit rate, full allotment of refi operations at a fixed rate just above zero, and 2) the need for structural reforms to boost growth potential and support aggregate demand.
The main economic news today has been the second look at UK Q3 GDP. Although the 0.7% quarter-over-quarter growth was left unchanged, the details were disappointing. Although private consumption edged up (0.8% from 0.6%), it was government spending that really was the standout. Despite the talk about Tory austerity, government spending rose 1.1%. The market expected a 0.2% increase. Business INVESTMENT fell 0.7% (a 2.3% increase was expected after a 3.3% rise in Q2). Exports fell 0.4%, while the market had expected a 0.1% decline. Imports jumped 1.4% after having fallen 0.3% in Q2.
Sterling looks to be tracking short-sterling futures. The December 2015 contract initially ticked up to new highs, but then reversed. This coincided with sterling falling on the news, but then recovering to back to session highs. The key is $1.5740 on the upside. A move through there could see a quick move toward $1.58, were sellers likely lurking.
The dollar has lost some momentum against the yen. Initial support is being tested near JPY117.70-80. A break could force a bigger short squeeze in the yen and push the dollar toward JPY117.00. Former MOF official, Sakakibara has opined that the 14% fall in the yen since mid-year has largely run its course. This echoes comments by some current officials, like Finance Minister Aso. Separately, we note that Sakakibara warned that the LDP will likely lose more seats in the December 14 snap-election than many anticipate. According to newswires he has intimated that a loss of 100 or more seats could force Abe to step down. This would indeed be a shock to investors.
Due to the holiday tomorrow, the US economic diary is chock-full today. The initial focus will be on the volatile durable goods orders for insight into business INVESTMENT. Personal consumption and expenditure data will be helpful for economists to firm up Q4 GDP forecasts. Note that the core PCE deflator is expected to be unchanged at 1.5%.
Later in the US morning, the Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and pending and new home sales will be reported. The Chicago PMI is often correlated with the national figures while the University of Michigan’s measure of consumer confidence is highly correlated with the equity market. The drop in gasoline prices and improvement in the labor market may help as well to lift the measure toward 90 in its final read. Small improvement is expected in the housing data. The bottom line is that the slew of data is unlikely to distract from the US-friendly divergence theme.
· 7
Evgeniy Piskachev
Post publicado Обзор рынка
В пятницу мировые фондовые индексы дружно выросли. Этому способствовало снижение учётных ставок в Китае и очередные заявления о смягчении денежной политики Евросоюза...
· 7
158
Evgeniy Piskachev
Post publicado Евро показывает зубы
Выход в свет протокола октябрьского заседания Комитета открытого рынка ФРС позволил EUR/USD отметиться повышенной волатильностью...
· 3
115
Evgeniy Piskachev
As my colleague Kathleen Brooks highlighted Tuesday, Japan’s economy has had a wild 48 hours. An abysmal Q3 GDP report, PM Shinzo Abe has pushed back next year’s planned sales-tax hike calling for snap elections in less than a month to consolidate his political power.
While the yen hasn’t seen an immediate reaction to the recent political and economic turmoil, this week’s decisions will have a long-term effect on both Japan’s economy and its currency. The decision to push back the tax hike will decrease inflationary pressures over the next year, though it will prevent the tax from kicking away the crutch of the already-hobbling Japanese economy. It could also force the BOJ to continue its extraordinary stimulus for longer than previously expected, adding a long-term headwind to the yen’s value. With a suddenly highly anticipated BOJ meeting scheduled for Tuesday night, yen traders found themselves on edge.
Techncial View: EUR/JPY
While USD/JPY continues to consolidate below the 117.00 level, EUR/JPY has seen a major breakout above resistance at 145.60-70. This level represents the convergence of the pair’s previous 6-year high and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the September-October drop. Now that rates have broken through this key barrier, there is minimal overhead supply -- essentially, any trader that has bought and held EUR/JPY at any point in the last 6 years is looking at an unrealized profit and has little incentive to sell for now.
Meanwhile, the price action and secondary indicators are showing about what you’d expect. Tuesday’s big rally is creating an (unfinished) Bullish Marubozu Candle* on the daily chart, showing strong buying pressure and a potential bullish continuation heading into the middle of the week. Momentum is strongly bullish, as shown by the MACD trending higher above its signal line and the “0” level. Of course, the RSI indicator is now deeply overbought, but until EUR/JPY hits a resistance level, further gains will be favored.
While the yen hasn’t seen an immediate reaction to the recent political and economic turmoil, this week’s decisions will have a long-term effect on both Japan’s economy and its currency. The decision to push back the tax hike will decrease inflationary pressures over the next year, though it will prevent the tax from kicking away the crutch of the already-hobbling Japanese economy. It could also force the BOJ to continue its extraordinary stimulus for longer than previously expected, adding a long-term headwind to the yen’s value. With a suddenly highly anticipated BOJ meeting scheduled for Tuesday night, yen traders found themselves on edge.
Techncial View: EUR/JPY
While USD/JPY continues to consolidate below the 117.00 level, EUR/JPY has seen a major breakout above resistance at 145.60-70. This level represents the convergence of the pair’s previous 6-year high and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the September-October drop. Now that rates have broken through this key barrier, there is minimal overhead supply -- essentially, any trader that has bought and held EUR/JPY at any point in the last 6 years is looking at an unrealized profit and has little incentive to sell for now.
Meanwhile, the price action and secondary indicators are showing about what you’d expect. Tuesday’s big rally is creating an (unfinished) Bullish Marubozu Candle* on the daily chart, showing strong buying pressure and a potential bullish continuation heading into the middle of the week. Momentum is strongly bullish, as shown by the MACD trending higher above its signal line and the “0” level. Of course, the RSI indicator is now deeply overbought, but until EUR/JPY hits a resistance level, further gains will be favored.
· 4
Evgeniy Piskachev
Evgeniy Piskachev
Join! ! ! Stablly 15-20% a month! ! !
Присоединяйтесь!!! Стабильно 15-20% в месяц!!!
https://www.mql5.com/ru/signals/6922
https://www.mql5.com/ru/signals/52212
https://www.mql5.com/ru/signals/64999
Join! ! ! Stablly 15-20% a month! ! !
Присоединяйтесь!!! Стабильно 15-20% в месяц!!!
https://www.mql5.com/ru/signals/6922
https://www.mql5.com/ru/signals/52212
https://www.mql5.com/ru/signals/64999
· 4
Evgeniy Piskachev
Post publicado Ставки по кредитам будут расти
Российский фондовый рынок во вторник утром открылся разнонаправленно. В начале торгов индекс РТС прибавляет 0,5%, индекс ММВБ падает на 0,4%. В лидерах спроса отмечены бумаги ММК и Медиахолдинга. В лидерах падения МегаФон. Внешний фон к сегодняшним торгам сложился нейтральным...
· 4
178
Evgeniy Piskachev
Post publicado Экономика РФ: от спада к сильному провалу
ВВП РФ в 4-м квартале 2014 года, скорее всего, продемонстрирует снижение в годовом выражении, в 1-м квартале 2015 года эта тенденция может усилиться, что будет означать начало рецессии в экономике, говорится в периодическом обзоре Центра развития НИУ ВШЭ "Комментарии о государстве и бизнесе...
· 4
166
Evgeniy Piskachev
Summary
“The market” has done well this year. The S&P 500, the best of the bunch, is up over 10%.
How about you? If you haven’t kept pace, here’s a rock-solid sector that has hit a temporary speed bump.
If history is any guide - and it is - these great companies won’t stay cheap for long.
The time to do your due diligence is today - and if you agree, the time to buy is now.
As recently as 24 hours ago, I would have included Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) in my discussion below. But near the close on Thursday, Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) divulged that it would like to acquire its very large rival Baker Hughes. BHI jumped 15% in 25 minutes. (Not that anyone would invest in just one company, of course, but that's 50% better than the S&P has done all year long!)
That's what happens when oil and gas stocks become temporarily cheap. As I wrote to the (too few, in retrospect) clients of ours that owned BHI:
"I did not have inside information prior to BHI's 15% jump just prior to the close today. But I know the energy industry and know that, when quality companies get this cheap, (1) competitors will buy them out rather than build new business from scratch, and (2) these companies will inevitably rebound. This one just started to rebound faster in light of Halliburton's possible buyout."
BHI WeeklyBHI Weekly
All oil and gas explorers, producers, servicers, drillers, machinery providers, and transport and storage firms are considerably cheaper today than they were just 6 weeks ago - so cheap, in fact, that one might make enough by buying them to do every bit as well as the market this year - even starting this late.
It couldn't come at a better time, in my opinion! I was cautious on the market by the end of summer, expecting an October time frame pullback. Our clients were mostly in preferred stocks and bond funds, with a healthy dollop of long/short mutual funds and even a few put options. Ouch. It certainly felt like the right thing to do all the way through mid-October as the market was falling and we were making money.
But then the market rebounded in a V-shaped recovery that, in 12 days, undid the entire 10% decline. We didn't immediately go long because every bear correction (well, every other bear correction!) is punctuated by a series of head-fake rallies, but then resumes its decline. After 5 years straight up, those two weeks were our entire correction?? Couldn't be. But it was. So now we are starting from the uncomfortable position of making less than the market this year, and that will not stand. We have sold all those bonds, bond funds, preferreds, preferred ETFs and other income-only investments.
Fortunately, the sector I have known the best for the past 40 years in this business is oil and gas - fortunate because that is where the bargains are today, if only we have the fortitude to buy them. Oil and gas always suffer a so-called glut after the summer vacation driving season ends and people no longer need their air conditioner when it stays light until 9 p.m. or so. And that glut, during which time we can normally pick up some fine bargains as people tear their hair out over the demise of oil and gas, is ended when the days get shorter, the lights go on earlier, and we need heat here in the Northern Hemisphere. The glut goes away, and we who have bought oil and gas in the "glut" pocket our profits.
This year the problem has been exacerbated, however, by a serious slowing of manufacturing and production in Europe and Asia and by the marvelous enhanced oil & gas production we are enjoying in North America; not just US shale production, but Canadian and soon to be Mexican successes as well.
Goldman Sachs recently wrote that worldwide demand is likely to stay flat for some time because China and the developing nations will consume less. I don't think they will. People with a bicycle want a motorbike; those with a motorbike want a car. This trend is unstoppable, as is the need to mine resources or manufacture "things" for export.
Goldman further sees U.S. shale as a target for the Saudis and their OPEC brethren to break by producing all-out. While it is true that the Saudis can be profitable at a lower price point, I don't think US shale producers are their target. I think it is their fellow OPEC partners and other competitors. It wouldn't hurt the Saudis' feelings if arch-enemy Iran were squeezed and brought to the bargaining table. And it wouldn't hurt US diplomacy, either, if Russia, Iran and Venezuela were eating crow instead of selling oil & gas at a profit.
Indeed, unlike Goldman, I see US shale production as a way to defeat any attempt to put the US over a barrel (so to speak.) According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), producers in the Marcellus Shale can make a 20% pre-tax return on investment in the Marcellus even if oil goes below $40 a barrel. The Eagle Ford, Utica and Bakken are still that profitable at less than $60 a barrel. In fact, according to the IEA, only 4% of shale production needs $80 oil to return that 20% pre-tax profit.
I further break down the oil and gas industry in the energy sector into four rough sub-sectors: machinery and equipment; transport and storage; field services (to include offshore;) and the drillers, both land-based and offshore. It would be pretty cumbersome to put all these in a single article, so I will cover the first two sub-sectors here and will include the other two big sectors, plus (bonus round!) two more speculative special situations I think have superb potential in my second post. Let's start with…
Machinery & Equipment
National Oilwell Varco's stock symbol is NOV, which customers and nervous competitors sometimes say stands for "No Other Vendor." With good reason: NOV controls about 50% of the deepwater equipment market, while competing against the likes of Halliburton, Baker Hughes, FMC Technologies (NYSE:FTI), Weatherford International (NYSE:WFT), and Cameron International (NYSE:CAM), all fine companies in their own right. (I have not included Dresser-Rand Group Inc (NYSE:DRC) because its merger with giant conglomerate Siemens (OTC:SIEGY) looks like a done deal, or Bolt Technology Corporation (NASDAQ:BOLT), because it is a smaller player, albeit with great strength in the niche market of subsea vehicles and equipment.)
These firms, and scores of others, build, sell and service entire rig systems, both offshore and land-based, as well as any of the hundreds of individual pipes, pumps, control systems, fluid handling and power systems, and all the rest that goes into the rigs. They also provide wellbore support with everything from drill bits and drilling fluid to coring services and waste management. For an in-depth overview, I suggest you go to nov.com and click on "Products." Every single item on that page has its own link for further info.
The bottom line is—without these companies making finely-honed, sturdy, and reliable equipment, there would be no exploration or production of oil and gas. As investors, we don't need in-depth knowledge of all the components that make this all come together; we need to know (1) that this is an essential industry that offers above-average growth, and (2) which companies are the most attractive to buy right now. While many other industries have run to new highs and are now on every momentum investor's buy list, none of these firms have set the world on fire. NOV is selling for 5% less than it did 12 months ago. BHI (well, until about 3:35 Thursday afternoon, anyway) was down 14%, HAL is down 4%, and WFT is down 4%. CAM is up 5%, while FTI is up 9%, the only one that has even come close to keeping pace with the market.
I don't think you could go wrong buying any of these. But of the 5, leaving BHI out for now, HAL has the biggest enterprise value, NOV the lowest P/E, HAL and FMC the best ROA and ROE, NOV the best operating and net margins and the lowest debt/equity ratio, and HAL and NOV the best 5-year revenue and earnings growth. Of the two that seem to float to the top here, NOV beats HAL on valuation criteria like Price/Book, Price/Sales and the PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings Growth.) Of the bigs, NOV is still our favorite. And when the biggest, most competitive and most highly-regarded firms in the industry have sold off every bit as much as the less well-managed or less well-capitalized firms, why not buy the best? We are buyers first of NOV, then of HAL.
Transport and Storage
The benefit of owning pipeline and storage companies is that they get paid on through-put, not on the price of the commodity. Also, these are by and large domestic, or at least North American, firms, so their earnings are less dependent upon the currently-weaker economies of Europe, Asia and the emerging markets. If Americans consume more oil and gas this winter, the transport and storage outfits make money. It doesn't much matter if that oil-equivalent barrel is priced at $70 a barrel or $100 a barrel; they get paid to transport something regardless of its value. Think of these companies as a UPS or FedEx (NYSE:FDX) - whether the contents of the package UPS delivers is worth $10 or $100, UPS charges by weight and distance, not by the value of the contents. That's what pipeline companies do. The storage end of the equation is slightly different; the prices received for storage are less subject to federal regulation and are therefore more subject to the laws of supply and demand.
So what are the best pipeline companies to own? That depends upon your end-goal. If you're looking solely for current income you might buy Niska Gas Storage (NYSE:Niska Gas Storage Partners LLC (NYSE:NKA) which pays at a 30% yield - but has lost 69% of its value over the last 12 months. I can name another dozen that pay double-digit yields, though I personally wouldn't buy a one of them for myself or our clients. I'd rather have steady, conservative growth with a well-managed company that increases its DCF (distributable cash flow) every year and its distributions as often.
Pipeline firms don't really "compete" with each other; FERC, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, regulates most aspects of interstate pipelines, and gives an effective monopoly to the pipeline from point A to point B and sets rates for flow that are "just and reasonable." So when reviewing competitive position in this sub-sector, we want to select those companies with management that is most astute and a network of pipelines that are in basins with lots of proven reserve life left in them instead of old fields only pumping with tertiary recovery methodologies.
A few names percolate to the top as pipeline builders in the newest and most prolific areas. Among these are TransCanada (NYSE:TRP), Enbridge (NYSE:ENB), Oneok (NYSE:OKE) and Statoil (NYSE:STO).
Statoil? Statoil? What am I smoking, you ask? For those who only know STO as the Norwegian state oil company, a powerhouse in Europe and the supplier of the world's newest LNG terminal (the Klaipeda terminal in Lithuania, which completely eradicates the Russian stranglehold on Lithuania,) you may wonder at its inclusion here. But STO also spent $4 billion to buy the US company Brigham Exploration, a major Bakken player, and is hard at work building storage facilities here in the U.S. STO is now a serious producer in the Marcellus and the Eagle Ford. And in addition to its 5,000 miles of pipelines in Europe, it now owns pipelines from the Marcellus shale direct to New York City and Toronto. This is yet another concrete example that there is tremendous overlap in each of these sub-sectors - here's a major integrated oil company that is now expanding its pipelines and storage divisions.
Midstream: Capturing Value in the US MarketMidstream: Capturing Value in the US Market
You'll notice there is something missing from my analysis of the transporters. We made superb money and attracted lots of followers in previous years talking about the steady-Eddie income, growth and tax benefits of MLPs. Where are the MLPs (Master Limited Partnerships) that have done so well for us in the past? Well, old favorites Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE:KMP) and El Paso Pipeline Partners LP (NYSE:EPB) are being absorbed by our also-favored parent company Kinder Morgan Inc (NYSE:KMI). That leaves Plains All American (NYSE:PAA) and, for both growth and yield, QR Energy (NYSE:QRE), Linn Energy (NASDAQ:LINE), and EV Energy (NASDAQ:EVEP) atop our few remaining MLPs we might still consider buying, except...
...I am more and more interested in acquiring the parent companies that pay ordinary dividends rather than the MLPs that pay tax-advantaged distributions via K-1s these days. My reason has nothing to do with K-1s, however. It has to do with the growing sentiment in Congress to do in the U.S. what the Canadians did in 2011 and remove the tax-advantaged status of LPs. It makes me uneasy at best. It doesn't have to even happen to cause a big downdraft in MLPs; just being floated as an idea by some Congressman will be enough to send them down 10% in a day. We've seen enough of that kind of volatility, thank you. If I have to pick only one, it would be KMI.
Bottom line - we are buyers of NOV, HAL, STO and KMI, with a dozen more to come next. In Part II, I'll cover the dirt-cheap drillers (where we are placing most of our funds right now) and the biggest and best servicing outfits, as well as our favorite big integrated oil and gas companies. Oh, and those special situations for
“The market” has done well this year. The S&P 500, the best of the bunch, is up over 10%.
How about you? If you haven’t kept pace, here’s a rock-solid sector that has hit a temporary speed bump.
If history is any guide - and it is - these great companies won’t stay cheap for long.
The time to do your due diligence is today - and if you agree, the time to buy is now.
As recently as 24 hours ago, I would have included Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) in my discussion below. But near the close on Thursday, Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) divulged that it would like to acquire its very large rival Baker Hughes. BHI jumped 15% in 25 minutes. (Not that anyone would invest in just one company, of course, but that's 50% better than the S&P has done all year long!)
That's what happens when oil and gas stocks become temporarily cheap. As I wrote to the (too few, in retrospect) clients of ours that owned BHI:
"I did not have inside information prior to BHI's 15% jump just prior to the close today. But I know the energy industry and know that, when quality companies get this cheap, (1) competitors will buy them out rather than build new business from scratch, and (2) these companies will inevitably rebound. This one just started to rebound faster in light of Halliburton's possible buyout."
BHI WeeklyBHI Weekly
All oil and gas explorers, producers, servicers, drillers, machinery providers, and transport and storage firms are considerably cheaper today than they were just 6 weeks ago - so cheap, in fact, that one might make enough by buying them to do every bit as well as the market this year - even starting this late.
It couldn't come at a better time, in my opinion! I was cautious on the market by the end of summer, expecting an October time frame pullback. Our clients were mostly in preferred stocks and bond funds, with a healthy dollop of long/short mutual funds and even a few put options. Ouch. It certainly felt like the right thing to do all the way through mid-October as the market was falling and we were making money.
But then the market rebounded in a V-shaped recovery that, in 12 days, undid the entire 10% decline. We didn't immediately go long because every bear correction (well, every other bear correction!) is punctuated by a series of head-fake rallies, but then resumes its decline. After 5 years straight up, those two weeks were our entire correction?? Couldn't be. But it was. So now we are starting from the uncomfortable position of making less than the market this year, and that will not stand. We have sold all those bonds, bond funds, preferreds, preferred ETFs and other income-only investments.
Fortunately, the sector I have known the best for the past 40 years in this business is oil and gas - fortunate because that is where the bargains are today, if only we have the fortitude to buy them. Oil and gas always suffer a so-called glut after the summer vacation driving season ends and people no longer need their air conditioner when it stays light until 9 p.m. or so. And that glut, during which time we can normally pick up some fine bargains as people tear their hair out over the demise of oil and gas, is ended when the days get shorter, the lights go on earlier, and we need heat here in the Northern Hemisphere. The glut goes away, and we who have bought oil and gas in the "glut" pocket our profits.
This year the problem has been exacerbated, however, by a serious slowing of manufacturing and production in Europe and Asia and by the marvelous enhanced oil & gas production we are enjoying in North America; not just US shale production, but Canadian and soon to be Mexican successes as well.
Goldman Sachs recently wrote that worldwide demand is likely to stay flat for some time because China and the developing nations will consume less. I don't think they will. People with a bicycle want a motorbike; those with a motorbike want a car. This trend is unstoppable, as is the need to mine resources or manufacture "things" for export.
Goldman further sees U.S. shale as a target for the Saudis and their OPEC brethren to break by producing all-out. While it is true that the Saudis can be profitable at a lower price point, I don't think US shale producers are their target. I think it is their fellow OPEC partners and other competitors. It wouldn't hurt the Saudis' feelings if arch-enemy Iran were squeezed and brought to the bargaining table. And it wouldn't hurt US diplomacy, either, if Russia, Iran and Venezuela were eating crow instead of selling oil & gas at a profit.
Indeed, unlike Goldman, I see US shale production as a way to defeat any attempt to put the US over a barrel (so to speak.) According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), producers in the Marcellus Shale can make a 20% pre-tax return on investment in the Marcellus even if oil goes below $40 a barrel. The Eagle Ford, Utica and Bakken are still that profitable at less than $60 a barrel. In fact, according to the IEA, only 4% of shale production needs $80 oil to return that 20% pre-tax profit.
I further break down the oil and gas industry in the energy sector into four rough sub-sectors: machinery and equipment; transport and storage; field services (to include offshore;) and the drillers, both land-based and offshore. It would be pretty cumbersome to put all these in a single article, so I will cover the first two sub-sectors here and will include the other two big sectors, plus (bonus round!) two more speculative special situations I think have superb potential in my second post. Let's start with…
Machinery & Equipment
National Oilwell Varco's stock symbol is NOV, which customers and nervous competitors sometimes say stands for "No Other Vendor." With good reason: NOV controls about 50% of the deepwater equipment market, while competing against the likes of Halliburton, Baker Hughes, FMC Technologies (NYSE:FTI), Weatherford International (NYSE:WFT), and Cameron International (NYSE:CAM), all fine companies in their own right. (I have not included Dresser-Rand Group Inc (NYSE:DRC) because its merger with giant conglomerate Siemens (OTC:SIEGY) looks like a done deal, or Bolt Technology Corporation (NASDAQ:BOLT), because it is a smaller player, albeit with great strength in the niche market of subsea vehicles and equipment.)
These firms, and scores of others, build, sell and service entire rig systems, both offshore and land-based, as well as any of the hundreds of individual pipes, pumps, control systems, fluid handling and power systems, and all the rest that goes into the rigs. They also provide wellbore support with everything from drill bits and drilling fluid to coring services and waste management. For an in-depth overview, I suggest you go to nov.com and click on "Products." Every single item on that page has its own link for further info.
The bottom line is—without these companies making finely-honed, sturdy, and reliable equipment, there would be no exploration or production of oil and gas. As investors, we don't need in-depth knowledge of all the components that make this all come together; we need to know (1) that this is an essential industry that offers above-average growth, and (2) which companies are the most attractive to buy right now. While many other industries have run to new highs and are now on every momentum investor's buy list, none of these firms have set the world on fire. NOV is selling for 5% less than it did 12 months ago. BHI (well, until about 3:35 Thursday afternoon, anyway) was down 14%, HAL is down 4%, and WFT is down 4%. CAM is up 5%, while FTI is up 9%, the only one that has even come close to keeping pace with the market.
I don't think you could go wrong buying any of these. But of the 5, leaving BHI out for now, HAL has the biggest enterprise value, NOV the lowest P/E, HAL and FMC the best ROA and ROE, NOV the best operating and net margins and the lowest debt/equity ratio, and HAL and NOV the best 5-year revenue and earnings growth. Of the two that seem to float to the top here, NOV beats HAL on valuation criteria like Price/Book, Price/Sales and the PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings Growth.) Of the bigs, NOV is still our favorite. And when the biggest, most competitive and most highly-regarded firms in the industry have sold off every bit as much as the less well-managed or less well-capitalized firms, why not buy the best? We are buyers first of NOV, then of HAL.
Transport and Storage
The benefit of owning pipeline and storage companies is that they get paid on through-put, not on the price of the commodity. Also, these are by and large domestic, or at least North American, firms, so their earnings are less dependent upon the currently-weaker economies of Europe, Asia and the emerging markets. If Americans consume more oil and gas this winter, the transport and storage outfits make money. It doesn't much matter if that oil-equivalent barrel is priced at $70 a barrel or $100 a barrel; they get paid to transport something regardless of its value. Think of these companies as a UPS or FedEx (NYSE:FDX) - whether the contents of the package UPS delivers is worth $10 or $100, UPS charges by weight and distance, not by the value of the contents. That's what pipeline companies do. The storage end of the equation is slightly different; the prices received for storage are less subject to federal regulation and are therefore more subject to the laws of supply and demand.
So what are the best pipeline companies to own? That depends upon your end-goal. If you're looking solely for current income you might buy Niska Gas Storage (NYSE:Niska Gas Storage Partners LLC (NYSE:NKA) which pays at a 30% yield - but has lost 69% of its value over the last 12 months. I can name another dozen that pay double-digit yields, though I personally wouldn't buy a one of them for myself or our clients. I'd rather have steady, conservative growth with a well-managed company that increases its DCF (distributable cash flow) every year and its distributions as often.
Pipeline firms don't really "compete" with each other; FERC, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, regulates most aspects of interstate pipelines, and gives an effective monopoly to the pipeline from point A to point B and sets rates for flow that are "just and reasonable." So when reviewing competitive position in this sub-sector, we want to select those companies with management that is most astute and a network of pipelines that are in basins with lots of proven reserve life left in them instead of old fields only pumping with tertiary recovery methodologies.
A few names percolate to the top as pipeline builders in the newest and most prolific areas. Among these are TransCanada (NYSE:TRP), Enbridge (NYSE:ENB), Oneok (NYSE:OKE) and Statoil (NYSE:STO).
Statoil? Statoil? What am I smoking, you ask? For those who only know STO as the Norwegian state oil company, a powerhouse in Europe and the supplier of the world's newest LNG terminal (the Klaipeda terminal in Lithuania, which completely eradicates the Russian stranglehold on Lithuania,) you may wonder at its inclusion here. But STO also spent $4 billion to buy the US company Brigham Exploration, a major Bakken player, and is hard at work building storage facilities here in the U.S. STO is now a serious producer in the Marcellus and the Eagle Ford. And in addition to its 5,000 miles of pipelines in Europe, it now owns pipelines from the Marcellus shale direct to New York City and Toronto. This is yet another concrete example that there is tremendous overlap in each of these sub-sectors - here's a major integrated oil company that is now expanding its pipelines and storage divisions.
Midstream: Capturing Value in the US MarketMidstream: Capturing Value in the US Market
You'll notice there is something missing from my analysis of the transporters. We made superb money and attracted lots of followers in previous years talking about the steady-Eddie income, growth and tax benefits of MLPs. Where are the MLPs (Master Limited Partnerships) that have done so well for us in the past? Well, old favorites Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE:KMP) and El Paso Pipeline Partners LP (NYSE:EPB) are being absorbed by our also-favored parent company Kinder Morgan Inc (NYSE:KMI). That leaves Plains All American (NYSE:PAA) and, for both growth and yield, QR Energy (NYSE:QRE), Linn Energy (NASDAQ:LINE), and EV Energy (NASDAQ:EVEP) atop our few remaining MLPs we might still consider buying, except...
...I am more and more interested in acquiring the parent companies that pay ordinary dividends rather than the MLPs that pay tax-advantaged distributions via K-1s these days. My reason has nothing to do with K-1s, however. It has to do with the growing sentiment in Congress to do in the U.S. what the Canadians did in 2011 and remove the tax-advantaged status of LPs. It makes me uneasy at best. It doesn't have to even happen to cause a big downdraft in MLPs; just being floated as an idea by some Congressman will be enough to send them down 10% in a day. We've seen enough of that kind of volatility, thank you. If I have to pick only one, it would be KMI.
Bottom line - we are buyers of NOV, HAL, STO and KMI, with a dozen more to come next. In Part II, I'll cover the dirt-cheap drillers (where we are placing most of our funds right now) and the biggest and best servicing outfits, as well as our favorite big integrated oil and gas companies. Oh, and those special situations for
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Evgeniy Piskachev
The price action has drifted above and below $400 in recent days and Bitcoin (BTC-eUSD) saw large selling pressure that pushed the price to a low of $375.00, slightly above the low posted last week at $369.00. The price action tested the first daily support today at $378.24, but was rejected. The second daily support lies at $366.62, while the first daily resistance level lies at $398.24. Trading volumes surged last week as the price extended above $400, with the Chinese exchanges experiencing the largest volume. Many exchanges experienced a rise in volumes in excess of 100%, such as BitStamp and Bitfinex, with larger percentage increases in the Chinese exchanges.
The U.S. Marshals Service has announced that it will auction 50,000 Bitcoins, worth around $20 million that were seized from Ross Ulbricht, accused of running the Silk Road dark net market. The deadline for bids ends on Monday December 1st, with the auction taking place over two rounds. The Bitcoins being auctioned have been confiscated by computers owned by Ulbricht, according to the US Marshals service. The large amount of Bitcoins available may supress the price, increasing supply on the markets.
Bankiter, a Spanish bank, has invested in a Bitcoin start-up, known as Coinffeine, which aims to create a new distributed exchange platform. Coinffeine is developing a distributed platform for the exchange of fiat money for crypto-currencies in an anonymous way. The design allows users to send money (fiat or crypto-currency) without the use of banks in a peer-to-peer fashion. Bankiter will lend support to the start-up and may become a client of Coinffeine in the future. Low fees are another advantage provided by this platform for users.
The chart below shows the 2-hour price action on the BitStamp exchange, along with the Ichimoku cloud indicator. The price action has closed below the cloud and the lagging line is now below the cloud, indicating the start of a downward move. The price additionally looks set to close below the base line, signalling bearish momentum. The cloud will act as resistance going forward at around the $386-$395 level for the next couple of days. The price action attempted to break above the cloud earlier today but was rejected, therefore the price should remain below the $395 level for the time being.
The U.S. Marshals Service has announced that it will auction 50,000 Bitcoins, worth around $20 million that were seized from Ross Ulbricht, accused of running the Silk Road dark net market. The deadline for bids ends on Monday December 1st, with the auction taking place over two rounds. The Bitcoins being auctioned have been confiscated by computers owned by Ulbricht, according to the US Marshals service. The large amount of Bitcoins available may supress the price, increasing supply on the markets.
Bankiter, a Spanish bank, has invested in a Bitcoin start-up, known as Coinffeine, which aims to create a new distributed exchange platform. Coinffeine is developing a distributed platform for the exchange of fiat money for crypto-currencies in an anonymous way. The design allows users to send money (fiat or crypto-currency) without the use of banks in a peer-to-peer fashion. Bankiter will lend support to the start-up and may become a client of Coinffeine in the future. Low fees are another advantage provided by this platform for users.
The chart below shows the 2-hour price action on the BitStamp exchange, along with the Ichimoku cloud indicator. The price action has closed below the cloud and the lagging line is now below the cloud, indicating the start of a downward move. The price additionally looks set to close below the base line, signalling bearish momentum. The cloud will act as resistance going forward at around the $386-$395 level for the next couple of days. The price action attempted to break above the cloud earlier today but was rejected, therefore the price should remain below the $395 level for the time being.
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Evgeniy Piskachev
Home Depot Inc (N:HD), the world's largest home improvement chain, reported a 14 percent rise in quarterly profit as an improving job market encouraged Americans to spend more on renovations.
Home Depot quarterly profit rises 14 percentHome Depot quarterly profit rises 14 percent
Net income rose to $1.54 billion, or $1.15 per share, in the third quarter ended Nov. 2, from $1.35 billion, or 95 cents per share, a year earlier.
Same-store sales rose 5.2 percent.
Net sales rose 5.4 percent to $20.52 billion.
Home Depot quarterly profit rises 14 percentHome Depot quarterly profit rises 14 percent
Net income rose to $1.54 billion, or $1.15 per share, in the third quarter ended Nov. 2, from $1.35 billion, or 95 cents per share, a year earlier.
Same-store sales rose 5.2 percent.
Net sales rose 5.4 percent to $20.52 billion.
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Evgeniy Piskachev
Post publicado Драги: экономический прогноз все больше отрезвляет
Экономика еврозоны в летние месяцы потеряла импульс к росту, а экономический прогноз "все больше отрезвляет", заявил председатель Европейского центрального банка (ЕЦБ) Марио Драги, выступая в комитете по экономической и монетарной политике Европарламента в понедельник...
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142
andrey Cheredin
2014.11.18
Что думал ,сама экономика начнет расти, без стимулов . Лето просто просидел ничего сделал для экономике , потом еще удивляются почему экономика падает в рецесию .
Evgeniy Piskachev
Post publicado Британский премьер вновь пригрозил России ужесточением санкций
Подход властей РФ к ситуации на востоке Украины недопустим и может привести к ужесточению санкций со стороны США и ЕС, заявил в пятницу премьер-министр Великобритании Дэвид Кэмерон...
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121
Evgeniy Piskachev
Britain's finance ministry will hand the country's anti-fraud agency all the funds it needs to conduct a criminal investigation into alleged rigging of the $5.3 trillion-a-day currency market, a Treasury source said.
UK hands fraud agency all funds needed for forex probe: sourceUK hands fraud agency all funds needed for forex probe: source
Finance minister George Osborne has written to the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) to say it will be given the financial support it needs for the investigation.
"I understand that the SFO is in the early stages of a major investigation into forex trading. Given the importance of this work, the Treasury will provide the required funding for this investigation," the source said the letter states.
The SFO opened a criminal investigation into allegations of fraudulent conduct in the foreign exchange market in July and said individuals could be charged next year. This is in addition to a regulatory clampdown which resulted in six major banks being fined a total of $4.3 billion on Wednesday.
The fines were for failing to stop traders from trying to manipulate the foreign exchange market, following a year-long global investigation.
The levies brought total penalties for manipulation of financial benchmarks to more than $10 billion over two years.
UK hands fraud agency all funds needed for forex probe: sourceUK hands fraud agency all funds needed for forex probe: source
Finance minister George Osborne has written to the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) to say it will be given the financial support it needs for the investigation.
"I understand that the SFO is in the early stages of a major investigation into forex trading. Given the importance of this work, the Treasury will provide the required funding for this investigation," the source said the letter states.
The SFO opened a criminal investigation into allegations of fraudulent conduct in the foreign exchange market in July and said individuals could be charged next year. This is in addition to a regulatory clampdown which resulted in six major banks being fined a total of $4.3 billion on Wednesday.
The fines were for failing to stop traders from trying to manipulate the foreign exchange market, following a year-long global investigation.
The levies brought total penalties for manipulation of financial benchmarks to more than $10 billion over two years.
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