thenews / Profile

Regarding the USD, we have been a bit surprised about the significant upward move in EURUSD despite the recent relatively strong US data. In our view this illustrates that the cross is increasingly giving in to fading policy divergence of the ECB vs

The Fed’s broad trade weighted USD has declined over 4.5% from its peak on January 20, so we have two questions: whether the USD is now oversold against certain currencies and whether we want to short the USD, which currencies have lagged the recent

Thanks to the just released February diary of Fed chief Yellen, we now know exactly when she called Bank of England Governor (and former Goldman Sachs employee) Marc Carney and ECB President (and former Goldman Sachs employee) Mario Draghi . Can you

The euro slumped on Tuesday after a number of explosions in Brussels at the airport and on the metro system, with some media informing of multiple deaths and injuries. The cause of the explosions are still to be determined. The pair traded 0.38%

Once European markets closed yesterday, Treasury yields started to move higher again. The Richmond Fed index was strong, but I’m not sure that’s really the driver. The only data today comes from New Home Sales, likely to be stronger too. The Treasury

The pound has clearly been the under-performer this week and in the G10 space is the worst performing currency, notes BTMU. "The resignation of Ian Duncan Smith late on Friday has fuelled concerns over a more damaging division within government over

The US dollar has one more round of fight left in it. But its bull run has been tiring for a while now and, after a final bout of strength mid-year, the greenback will hit the mats versus a range of other currencies. The dollar has been taking a bit

By compiling detailed daily diaries of his market observations for over a decade, Cook was able to develop a slew of original, high-reliability trading strategies" - Jack Schwager, discussing insights from Mark Cook. Building a winning trading system

In an interview with the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) back in 2010, Warren Buffett answered several questions about what he thought caused the housing and credit bubble. During the interview process, he also gave a crystal clear

According to research conducted by the Bank of England, Sterling has been “fashionable” and has driven movements in G-10 FX five times since the start of the Global Financial Crisis . In the year to date, Sterling has already weakened significantly

"We will see a variant of helicopter money (perhaps thinly disguised) in the next 10 years if not the next five," says Colombia University economist Richard Clarida. "All central banks can do it. The question is, if and when is it opportune," says

The pound to dollar exchange rate is forecast to fall into the 1.20s by 2017 on a combination of a UK's economic slowdown and repatriation of capital into the US. 65% chance UK votes to stay in the European Union say Morgan Stanley Worst case

The EUR has been under pressure for most of last week, mainly in reaction to this week’s terrorist attacks in Brussels and rising Fed rate expectations. Elsewhere, it must be noted that medium-term inflation expectations as measured by 5Y inflation

PCE report a setback for Fed hawks The idea at the core of the Fed, and most economists' models, is that more jobs will lead to increased spending and rising inflation. It's inarguably true. At least at some level it's inarguable true and there's the

Over the next three months or so, EUR trading will likely depend on three factors: i) efficacy of the ECB policy package, ii) external environment, especially Fed policy and risk sentiment, and iii) ECB willingness to ease further, including rate

Goldman Sachs says to go long US dollar into Fed meeting With the US economy continuing to grow above trend, printing very robust employment gains month after month, and with unemployment at 4.9% and a sharper-than-expected acceleration in core

We expect the March meeting to break as follows: i) The dot plot.DB’s econ team expects the median dots to come down by 25bps for all of 2016, 2017, 2018 and the longer-run. Prima facie this may seem dovish but the dots will have to come down by more

In our view, the March FOMC statement was more dovish than anticipated. The committee upgraded its assessment of economic activity, saying that activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, driven by moderate household spending , an improved

As widely expected, the Fed maintained the Fed funds target rate unchanged at 0.25%-0.50% - but the Fed sent a dovish signal. The median ‘dot’ for this year was lowered down to signalling two hikes (down from four) as the Fed thinks that ‘global

The Fed kept rates unchanged in March but lowered significantly its median projections for future rates in 2016, 2017 and beyond. The Fed did all that while keeping its growth, inflation and unemployment forecasts for the US little changed. During