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Solid US economic data yesterday and a ‘risk-on’ day in Asia today; there ought to be smiles at the Federal Reserve: So far, so good for their plan to persuade markets to price in a faster pace of rate hikes without throwing the baby (and the S&P

NZD traders - Fonterra says NZD is high, impacting milk price and forecasts Global dairy giant Fonterra comments Announced an opening forecast farmgate milk price of $4.25 per kgms for the 2016/17 season Say "conditions on farm are very challenging"

We are becoming even more selective in how we express our long USD bias – equal attention will need to be paid to both the vulnerabilities on the short leg and the strengths on the USD leg.  For EUR/USD, higher US interest rates can have

Views on the majors EUR/USD:  We are overall bearish and would prefer to fade upticks against resistance in the 1.1245 area. A move below our initial downside targets near 1.1100 would open the 1.0990 area. USD/JPY:  No change. We are

The wording wasn't the most elegant but the meaning was clear "It's appropriate, and I've said this in the past, I think for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time and probably in the coming months, such a

There's a conundrum in markets and the Fed. If they promise to hike it sets off a round of US dollar strength, bond sales and risk aversion that sends them scurrying back to dove-land. In turn, that reaction function makes it almost impossible to

Next to Japan, EMU represents another case where the yield curve has been 'exhausted'. This environment has seen FX driven by money markets and less by long-term investment flows. Recall, negative nominal yields that find it difficult to fall further

The USD has been relatively well supported. Even if this week’s Fed minutes made a bigger case of the central bank considering higher rates as soon as in June, incoming data must support such prospects, especially when considering that the

From Deutsche Bank: We expect EUR/USD to at least revisit 1.05 lows this year on the back of a very weak basic balance, a broadly stronger dollar and more scope for ECB balance sheet expansion, including the new TLTRO II auctions. Sell EUR/USD

The USD staged a bigger comeback mainly on the back of this week’s release of Fed minutes, from the 26-27 April FOMC meeting, which provided a greater case of June being considered as a live meeting. However, the central bank also explained that

EUR/USD reached a temporary peak on 3 May above 1.16 but has since moved lower. We believe the risks are to the downside near term . Firstly , positioning is now much cleaner than earlier in the year. Secondly,  we believe that the market is too

It has certainly been a busy week in the foreign-exchange market with the dollar rising against most of the major currencies. Sterling was the only currency to outperform the greenback and we’ll talk more about that later. USD/JPY was the primary

The US 2s10s curve has been flattening since the start of May. We have run a regression analysis of each currency vs the USD against changes in the US 2s10s curve. In a flattening environment the SEK is expected to depreciate the most in G10 while

Like war and making movies, trading is basically 99% boredom and 1% action. That's what makes it so dangerous. We all know that we need to eat our vegetables. Drink eight water glasses per day and exercise regularly. Blah. Blah Blah. How many of us

...but what's going on in China is a special kind of stupid One way or another, China is going to wreck the party. It's only a question of when the debt-filled red balloon pops. Stories like this lead me to believe it will end in some unimaginably

Officials at the Federal Reserve (Fed) saw little reason to delay the next increase in short-term interest rates beyond the summer if economic data keep improving. A key issue that surfaced in the April meeting minutes was the discomfort some

Comments from the Fed's Williams in New York: Expects GDP growth of about 2% Lower inflation expectations somewhat worrying US economy to face some headwinds from abroad US is basically at full employment Sees inflation moving to 2% over next year or

USD: Buy USD vs Commodity. & EM Currencies. Bullish. The Fed's broad USD index has rallied by 2% since the start of May, driven by a reduction of extreme short positioning in USD and a correction in commodity markets which we expect to continue

We continue to stress that while improving labour market conditions and robust consumer fundamentals are key to underpinning growth expectations,  inflation developments are a more important determinant of the pace of rate normalisation. While