Oil is at lows last four weeks , gold is trying a comeback
Protests in Libya have stopped at one of the largest oil fields , allowing future resumption of production and increase supply by 300 thousand barrels of good quality, "sweet" . Not only Brent lost 3.14% , but WTI ( New York) recorded a nearly 5.43% minus 1 to January 6. Profits need to mark the upcoming moderating idea very relaxed monetary policy contributed to slipping on January 2 . But the situation remains unpredictable. Rival power groups can pause Libyan ports , and Iraq is the scene of violence affecting a transmission line of 600 thousand barrels per day. The government is fighting militants with links to Al- Qaeda. At the same time the cold weather in the U.S. blocks the road, but increased demand for heating oil . Located at the beginning of oppression sellers , oil could attempt a corrective recovery , both in New York and London.
Gold has contradicted the first sessions of generalized pessimism , managing to recover from the 1180 dollars / ounce - on 31 December - over 1240 dollars in Monday's session . India consider reducing import barriers , which would increase demand from the consumer world ranked two . But markets seem to begin to understand that although in relative terms would be dollar appreciation against other currencies , however, money growth generates long-term inflationary risks insufficiently integrated into current prices . Gold , however , unlike oil, seems vulnerable to the hours and days ahead.
today's important news: Trade Balance at 15.30 (gmt+2), Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month;
Why we care: Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers;
European stock markets fell after the U.S. services sector shows signs of weakness. American Stock Exchange continued decline in European markets following the publication in the estimate of the ISM service sector index. Asian capital market has been declining after posting disappointing expansion index of U.S. services industry.
2014 begins with some corrections in equity markets and a hesitant Euro
2014 has begun! Concentration gradually returns after a holiday . Greater attention should have an informed trader , trying to relearn working atmosphere with market sentiment , with liveliness news feeds and emotional burden of trading .
Debut of the Year has already brought some corrections of overflowing enthusiasm , especially in some of the capital markets. After the celebration, more cautious investors decided to bring the barn harvest some profits. Bernanke 's bold choices for the future of the U.S. economy this year was also the occasion of marking profits - heralding a new stop providing liquidity , and hence an increase in interest and desire certainly that capital markets do not satisfy.
Euro "comfort" the $ 1.39 , the low liquidity during the holidays, but later restored to near 1.36 at levels that better reflect the different movements of the two major economic blocs .
The EUR fell the most in the last two months against the dollar amid strengthening U.S. economy. New Zealand dollar appreciated against its counterparts from the expectations of an increase in interest rate. Pound continued its appreciation against the euro as a result of expansion in the UK housing market.
The next period may be relaxed , but not necessarily boring
2013 trading year for most currency markets actually ends on December 31 , but even months liquidity will become much smaller , with the entry into holiday trading services major banks . The next period will not necessarily be dull and new home sales reports , 24 at 17:00 in U.S. retail sales in Japan on Friday at 1.50 , consumer confidence in the U.S. 31 at 17 , ISM Industrial on Thursday January 2 at 17 can bring even fluctuations , especially in the short term .
In your support we made a compilation of days off and the most important macroeconomic events .
Even if markets will not engage in well-defined trends can be observed current direction favorable actions and dollars, temporary corrective adjustments in line marking profits before Christmas and New Year.
Euro is no longer leave impressed
Rating agency S & P cut the rating of the European Union one step below AAA , but exceeded Euro nonchalantly time . Spell a mechanism to resolve future crises in the banking system is visible, as well as moderate revival estimated for future anticipated ZEW and IFO surveys already . Confidence built in Germany sees and GfK indicator . Will Euro to orchestrate a comeback at the beginning of the week ? The partially digested the Fed's surprise , an episode of moderate appreciation of the European currency is possible, but seems unlikely to be stopped dollar appreciation over the medium .
Bernanke , end of an era troubled and controversial
Yesterday veteran Ben Bernanke has justified for the last time before the public policy decisions monateră they took as president of the Federal Reserve ( central bank) , marking the end of a tumultuous and controversial era that brought the greatest world economy from the deepest recession and the worst financial crisis after the Second World War .
Yesterday's Fed meeting was the last for which Bernanke has scheduled a press conference commitment to transparency in which he had made a tradition. Legacy it leaves behind is an economic and monetary policy aggressively unprecedented interest based on zero and trillions of dollars injected into the U.S. economy and the economies of other countries and even in markets, a legacy that reveals how much influence world what is happening in the U.S..
Bernanke has made U.S. the epicenter of the global financial and economic crisis in one of the main growth engines of the world economy . His place will be taken in February next year, one of his closest allies and followers of Bernanke , Janet Yellen .
A moderate or postpone : question for the Fed and market response
Markets are not prepared to reduce monetary incentives
Some investment banks see the first step towards stopping bailout in January , others only in March . The manager of the largest bond fund in the world sees a 60% probability to start slowing tonight. Spectrum of opinions on tonight 's very broad . Enough to generate large variations , whatever the outcome . But what will decide whether the Fed is not followed by market direction .
If we focus on the dollar , assuming the probable ( from our perspective ) a reduction in the QE program by 5 billion dollars, the initial assessment should be the pulse of a magnitude of at least 0.5 % against major currencies .
If the contents of the statement will appear that will go in the near future in this direction, even if it is not announced an immediate cut , the dollar would benefit and equity markets and gold would suffer visible corrections .
Fed could choose a third option : to avoid action , or even a push in the future , such as dropping 6.5% unemployment rate would start raising interest rates. The positive risk sentiment could push up shares and gold and currency pairs like EUR / USD or GBP / USD .
Communication can be viewed on the website of the Federal Reserve .