Takashi Akasaka was born in Yokohama in 1953. After his graduation from the university, Takashi Akasaka worked for 30 years in architectural illustration.
But in 2006 he began to paint using transparent watercolor, so he had to learn a new way to paint using this artistic medium. Takashi Akasaka had to change his point of view, going from illustration that must match the reality to the artistic watercolor painting where he wants to express the feeling of the scene and take care of composition and pallete to use.
The US Dollar rallied sharply after holding key lows through this week’s trading, but today has the Greenback falling sharply versus the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Australian Dollar. What is getting in the way of a more sustained Dollar bounce? We’re looking at two factors in particular—forex volatility and positioning.
Lack of Volatility Getting in the Way of Dollar Strength
The chart below shows that the Dow Jones Dollar Index broke above a major falling trendline through late 2009 as forex volatility likewise moved significantly higher.
Despite the most recent move higher, however, volatility prices have been unable to break a very similar trendline.
A strong correlation between the USDOLLAR and volatility suggests the next big Dollar rally will need to come on a bigger breakout in forex market volatility. There’s another key factor keeping us from calling for a much larger USD rally, and it’s the fact that too many people are making the same trade.
Too Many Traders Calling for the Same Trade – Forex Positioning Needs to Shift
Yesterday we highlighted the fact that there was risk of a major EURUSD reversal and broader Dollar recovery, but that was contingent on a similarly significant pullback in forex trader positions. What does that mean exactly?
Yet the trading crowd was recently its most short EURUSD on record—a clear sign of a potential sentiment and price extreme. It’s at these major turning points that we might actually look to trade in the same direction. Or in other words, when traders are extremely short we might look to sell as well.
Retail Forex Traders were Most Short EURUSD on Record, Remain Heavily Net Short (see image)
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