Intermarket Analysis & Ichimoku both have a dire view for Gold (source - dailyfx.com)
Ichimoku is best used to spot good entries in the direction of a strong trend. On the chart above, XAUUSD’s trend has shifted from a potential buy trade on a potential reversal back into a trend resumption trade to the downside that we hope to catch with this trade. Because of the technical set-up and recent price action showing XAU weakness, we’re happy to consider this trade with the stop above the FOMC High of 1,373.
If this is your first reading of the Ichimoku report, here is a recap of the traditional rules for a sell trade: -Price is below the Kumo Cloud -The trigger line (black) is below the base line (light blue) or is crossing below -Lagging line is below price action from 26 periods ago (bright green line) -Kumo ahead of price is bearish and falling (red cloud = bearish Kumo) -Entry price is not more than 300 pips away from base line as it will likely whip back to the line if we enter on an extended move.
Prices are consolidating below resistance at 1341.60, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. This barrier is reinforced by a falling trend line set from the late-August swing top, now at 1346.52. A break above the latter threshold initially targets the September 19 high at 1375.13. Near-term support is at 1320.86, the 38.2% level, with a move beneath that eyeing the 50% Fib at 1304.10.
Forbes : Is Hyperinflation Just Around the Corner?
In his parting act, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has decided to continue printing some $85 billion per month (6 percent of GDP per year) and spend those dollars on government bonds and, in the process, keep interest rates low, stimulate investment, and reduce unemployment.
Prices are moving lower as expected, with sellers now testing 50% Fibonacci retracement support at 1680.30. A break below that targets the 61.8% level at 1667.70. Near-term resistance is at 1693.00, the 38.2% Fib, with a turn above that eyeing the 1700.00 figure and the 23.6% retracement at 1708.70.
British Pound Clearly Overextended, but When Would we Sell? British Pound gains are most extreme since major 2012 top , Forex trading crowds have sold very aggressively into strength, We’re watching...
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (source - dailtyfx.com)
Prices narrowly edged below support at 10530, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, hinting sellers are now poised to challenge the 23.6% threshold at 10500. A narrow break of a minor Fib level does not speak to strong directional conviction however. With that in mind, a rebound from here sees the first major layer of resistance at rising trend line set from early April, now at 10591.
This book is a collection of interviews of a group of successful traders in the 1970s/80s. Their experiences are interesting to hear and traders may draw useful lessons from them. However, some of them were successful only because they were in the right place at the right time. The 1970s were a great commodity bull market and some of them profited from it. Nevertheless this is a classic to read and enjoy. Jack's latest book, Hedge Fund Market Wizards, is also a fantastic read.
Investment strategy has only recently come into vogue on Wall Street. Once upon a time the major investment houses employed brokers, traders, technicians of various types and even economists, but no strategists per se.
Euro Speculators are Most Long Since May 2011 (source - dailyfx)
- Euro COT index is the highest since May 2011 - British Pound net speculative position flips to long - Mexican Peso traders getting whipsawed
The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A light blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A light red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Crosses above and below 0 are in bold. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side.
AUDUSD Is Showing Bullish Pattern Ahead Of RBA Rate decision
Tomorrow RBA will make a decision regarding interest rates. Market does not expect any changes for now which could be supportive for AUD if policy will remain as it is. In fact, a technical side of this pair is also predicting bullish waves as decline from 0.9527 has a corrective look; a three wave decline with possible ending diagonal placed in wave C. Nice support zone* for a completion of the pattern is at 0.9280/50. We will wait on a five wave rally and then ready to pull a trigger on the long side of the pair. For now its too soon! On the other-hand, any surprise from the RBA with rate cut will send AUDUSD sharply lower and then invalidate our count.
Elliott’s pattern consists of motive waves and corrective waves. A motive wave is composed of five subwaves and always moves in the same direction as the trend of the next larger size. A corrective wave is divided into three subwaves. It moves against the trend of the next larger size.
Structure is 5-3-5 wave A must be a motive wave wave B can only be a corrective pattern wave B must be shorter than wave A by price distance wave C must be a motive wave. appears in wave two or four in an impulse, wave B in an A-B-C, wave X in a double or triple zig-zag, or wave Y in a triple threes
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