The Bitcoin’s Great Depression at Mt. Gox Continues as Prices went below $100 Mark (based on forexminute article)
By the end of the previous week, Bitcoin’s prices at Mt. Gox were in its tropospheric range when its prices plunged below the $100 mark. Confirming the news were the ill-famed Japanese exchange itself that admitted the Bitcoin prices falling to $91.50, while recovering back to $142 by the end of Friday. The record-fall was noticed post the shutting of Silk Road. The news left the investors in a sour stir. People are still counting on Mt. Gox to fix their overlong halt so that they recover their money. But the exchange have been unable to show them one single ray of hope, while the Bitcoin’s value there is still hanging on a thick line, waiting to recover back to its base.
Although, the crypto-currency’s value falling scenarios were not just limited to Mt. Gox. Other leading Bitcoin exchange platforms BTC-e and BitStamp too recorded the fall in Bitcoin’s value. The currency was trading below the $600 mark at the end of week post the Silk Road shut down.
We typically go against the crowd; if everyone has sold we prefer to buy. Yet retail traders are often their most short at important tops and their most long at significant lows. The caveat is clear: the sentiment and price extreme is only clear in hindsight.
The fact that these extremes are happening as the pair reverses off of important technical resistance nonetheless suggests that the EURUSD may soon reverse lower. A larger shift towards crowd buying would help confirm the EUR top; our sentiment-based Momentum2 strategy may soon sell if the pair does indeed turn lower.
Trade Implications – Gold: One-sided US Dollar positioning suggests that the Greenback may be near an important turning point. Yet outperformance in Gold prices give us pause in calling for a reversal of recent gains. Our bias would change if trading crowds bought into any XAUUSD declines.
Retail FX traders remain short Gold against the US Dollar for the first time since the metal set an important top near $1430 over six months ago. Our trading bias remains bullish XAUUSD above $1280.
USDCHF Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
- The USDCHF may have completed a corrective decline from the 2012 high in late December. The decline is in 3 waves, channels in a corrective manner (connect the origin of waves A and C and project a parallel from the terminus of wave A to project the terminus of wave C), and consists of 2 equal waves (would be exactly equal at .8888…the lowest weekly close was actually .8885). - The market must stay above the December low in order to maintain a constructive longer term bias. Failure to hold could result in a drop towards .8566. USDCHF needs to overcome .8940 in order to flip the near term picture. .8830 is the last level before the low could produce a low.
Hong Kong Will Have the First Retail Outlet for Bitcoin (based on forexminute article)
Though Bitcoin is sliding internationally as it traded below $100 yesterday and it looks like a lot of trouble is ahead for it if the situation continues for a couple of weeks, there is no dearth of the takers of the digital currency. Now, Hong Kong is going to have the first ever retail outlet for the virtual currency Bitcoin. This is expected to be unveiled on Friday.
According to the local sources the retail outlet will spread on the 400 sq ft shop in Sai Ying Pun, in Hong Kong Island's Western district. The idea was given by Asia Nexgen Bitcoin Exchange which has been a great advocate of the digital currency which can definitely play great role in retail business. It is evident that Bitcoin will get new life once this outlet starts offering its services.
If Lo Ken-bon, the co-founder and chief executive of Asia Nexgen is to be believed, the biggest issue people have right now is buying the Bitcoin and they have to put money in, trade it through an exchange online and it according to him takes time. However, now, he says that customers can walk into the store, hand over your cash and send the Bitcoin to their digital wallet.
USDCAD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
- Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875. - From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low. - The close above the line that extends off of the 2002 and 2009 highs as well as the close above corrective channel resistance add credence to the 3rd of a 3rd wave position. - USDCAD has reacted at support.