Here are the results till 18th of October, 2016:
% of all trades
Avg result in points
|Take Profit Trades||2%||31,50|
|Loss Trades||18%||4,05 (that's an average gain)|
Before describing details of this trading strategy, lets discuss 3 very important aspects of Artista signal.
First of all, there is no martingale applied, thus, no position averaging or additional positions on already opened currency pairs. My previous experience has taught me that martingale might help to solve some short-term problems, however, in the long run there will be this 1 situation when your account will be washed-out. On top of that, I have came to realization that the best way how to overcome some short-term losses is through additional trades in other currency pairs, supporting my point of no martingale usage.
Secondly, as you might see from the trading results, this signal is quite aggressive. Let me remind you that the main goal for me, as both a trader and investor, is to maximize growth/drawdown ratio. If you look at the most popular signals that have many subscribers, you will spot some tendencies. Those who had tremendous growth in the past have already cashed out their profits; these traders have cent accounts and they support themselves purely from the money earned from subscription fees. As a result, these traders tend to minimize drawdown (therefore, also profits), just for the sake of attracting new subscribers rather than generating decent profit margins for their existing subscriber base.
Thirdly, the trades are being performed manually without help of any robot or algorithm. How does this affect you? - well, less trades, thus lower negative effects from slipperage.
About TRADING STRATEGY:
This particular investment strategy combines 2 very crucial market pricing characteristics:
The price tends to move between support and resistance lines;
Price movement is the most fluent when it is in the the same direction as the ongoing trend.
As for the first point, I have not met any individual trader who could draw resistance and support levels and trade from them profitably in the long run. Let me put it in different perspective - if your child asks you whether he has a talent in drawing, you would always answer positively; however, when he starts questioning his future as a possible artist, you come to revelation that he won't be able to earn enough and will probably waste his career. In the currency market, the trader has to be absolutely sure that a particular line will be respected by the market before trading from it; unfortunately, individual support/resistance lines are subjective interpretation of a possible price movement, thus, these lines tend to be unreliable.
My offered solution - Pivot lines. These lines, introduced by the largest financial institutions, give traders an opportunity to calculate support/resistance lines based on previous days highs, lows & closing prices. Because of objectivity behind these lines, they are commonly used by the largest brokerages and banks, thus, becoming extremely reliable.
As for the second point, there are numerous mathematical indicators that allow to determine the ongoing trend. Personally, I use MACD and Exponential Moving Averages.
Besides these technical guidelines, I tend to refrain from trading at the time of news as there happens to be too much stupidity in the market. This trading strategy is centered around trading in European & American sessions using natural price movements between the pivot lines and in the direction of ongoing trend.
In addition to usual news, I do not trade at the hours, when European or American stocks open or close; contrary to currency market, stocks tend to open the trading with GAPS, which might substantially affect price movements in the currency market. To be more precise, each opening of a particular stock market can be considered as a fundamental event, which can potentially brake the movement along the ongoing trend.
And finally, I use the correlation matrix between the largest currency pairs and metals, thus, I will never simultaneously enter in long AUDUSD and short NZDUSD positions (just because of the fact that the correlation between these 2 pairs is close to 1, therefore, almost always these pairs will move in the same direction). Another example - when trading pairs with CAD (or highly correlated AUD/NZD/GBP), I will always look for oil prices, which would confirm the chosen direction of the price.
That's all from me! In case of any questions, you are more than welcome to approach me in Skype (look for mr.sandzza)
MFE and MAE Distribution Point Graphs
Maximum profit (MFE) and maximum loss (MAE) values are recorded for each open order during its lifetime. These parameters additionally characterize each closed order using the values of the maximum unrealized potential and maximum permitted risk. MFE/Profit and MAE/Profit distribution graphs display each order as a point with received profit/loss value plotted along the X-axis, while maximum displayed values of potential profit (MFE) and potential loss (MAE) are plotted along the Y-axis.
Place your cursor over parameters/graph captions to see the best and worst trading series. Find out more about MAE and MFE distributions in the article Mathematics in Trading: How to Estimate Trade Results.
The average slippage based on execution statistics on real accounts of various brokers is specified in points. It depends on the difference between the provider's quotes from "AdmiralMarkets-Live3" and the subscriber's quotes, as well as on order execution delays. Lower values mean better quality of copying.
|2.70 × 10|
|2.73 × 11|
|3.76 × 25|
|5.00 × 2|
|5.00 × 1|
|6.08 × 13|
|9.67 × 3|
|14.92 × 25|
During the last week Artista trading signal showed growth of ~ 19%, while having 21/44 trades closed as Stop-loss trades (that's approximately 47%). The prices did move in choppy manner, which confused a lot of traders, resulting in wide swings. News came from both Great Britain (GBP) as well as FED (USD), but the market remains confussed about short-term directions in both currencies.
With regard to trading process, no force major situations were experienced. Yes, during the Tuesday's American trading session DD spiked to as high as 23%, however, the situation was caused purely by my own mistakes. To be more precise, I did enter in long EURCAD trade, while I was expecting the oil price to bounce lower after hitting that 51 USD/barel mark. Although the oil actuallly did suffer some short-term losses, EUR weakness outweighted CAD weakness, thus, this technically incorrect trade caused some problems. Again, all the necessary steps were taken to ensure the safety of our capital and the position was closed.
The trading signal was inactive during the Wednesday's session due to the evening's FOMC Minutes announcement. As history has proven, the event tends to be a major market mover, therefore, before the event market might move irrationally and with high volatilty.
Over the period of last 5 trading days, the average value of SL trade was diminished from 3,25 pts to 2,84. This shows that despite the choppy trading conditions, the entries, as well as the exits of the trades, were performed accuratelly, allowing to secure positive growth even without having strong trends in the market.
The following week can be described as "data-busy", therefore, trading calendar will cause some adjustements in my trading schedule. Despite that, I feel optimistic and cheerful (as it should be,:P)!
Enjoy the last hours of these holidays!
I have decided to provide you with weekly reports, in which I will analyze my recent performance as well as rationale behind my main trading activities.
This trading strategy has been up and running for 2 weeks, and, boy, spikes in the volatility have been quite astonishing. Although some of this could have been predictable due to end of the summer holidays, these movements caught many traders off-guard. There are not many days, when 3 of 10 most-subscribed trading signals get washed-out in the matter of minutes.
As most traders are purely interested in growth and drawdown, lets discuss these first:
Growth - 40% in 2 weeks time is quite moderate result. Normally, I would expect this indicator to be above 60%, but it is what it is... A huge part of this can be explained by enormous amount of SL trades, which in more detail I will describe later.
Drawdown - max drawdown did reach 24%, which I am no satisfied with, this is too high. If we look in the larger perspective, there were 3 times when drawdown approached 20% mark - 2 times occured in the middle of European sessions. while the last one happened last Friday after Canadian unemployment news. First 2 cases were triggered by sudden moves in GBP pairs, which were not associated with any kind of news. To be more precise, I do not expect to have 80-90 point movements against the ongoing trends, which does happen in less than an hour. Frankly, I cannot explain the rationale behind these movements; all I can say is that my entries were technically correct and I did the absolute maximum to preserve the capital.
With regards to the last Friday, I made impulsive entries in USDCAD/EURCAD pairs, which were based on my belief that CAD unemployment news were extremely positive. Although at first the price movement supported my opinion, in less than 90 minutes the price made an U-turn movement, thus creating significant problems for me. As the situation quickly became much worse, I had to apply martingale (or price averaging, whatever you call it) and exit from these trades with minimal losses. Contrary to those cases in the European sessions, these problems were caused by technically wrong entries, therefore, in the future I will try to avoid such cases at all costs. Martingale is still no option for me - even after Friday's shenanagans, the usage of Martingale is below 3%.
Despite having drawdown of 24%, I still believe that I risks were well-managed. Why? - Continue reading...
I can split all my trades in 5 groups:
TP (Take Profit) trades – predetermined profit goals have been reached;
Profit trades – predetermined profit goals have not been reached; I have closed these trades due to upcoming news or due to monetary reasons;
Neutral trades – trades that are being closed with minimal profit or loses; these trades are not closed due to technical reasons, more likely due to upcoming news or opening/closing trading sessions;
Loss trades – trades that are incorrectly opened or that are contrary to my trading strategy; sometimes these trades tend to be with positive outcomes, suggesting that my forecast about market’s movements has been correct, even if it is against my trading conditions. All in all, such trades are not welcome, as they have ruined my trading accounts in the past.
SL (Stop Loss) trades – trades that are closed due to technical reasons; I don’t have predetermined SL levels, thus, I have to closely monitor the situation and decide when the technical conditions have changed enough to consider closing a position.
After dividing my trades in these categories, I calculate the size of each category (in terms of total number of trades) and the average result (both in points and USD) of each categories’ trades.
Of all trades that I openned, approximately 55% were SL trades, while additional 20% were Loss trades. How was that growth generated? - Through 4% TP trades and additional 10% Profit trades. This should tell you that, despite those extreme cases, the openned positions were tightly monitored, not allowing any uncontrolled-movement. On top of that, on average each TP trade generates me income from 31 points, while each SL trade takes away loss of 3,5 points; as the difference is close to 10 times, 1 TP trade is equivalent to 10 SL trades.
Usually, in each of my future reports I will try to provide you with statistics about these % as well as my opinion how the results could be improved. For now, there should be 2 main goals for me:
a) decrease the amount of Loss trades. Although these trades generate me on average profit of ~5 pts, there might be cases when they can result in tremendous losses. AFter GBP flash-crash, there is no need to look for significant examples, you all saw one.
b) decrease the size of each SL trade. At the moment, average weight of SL trade is 3,25 pts - this should point in the direction of 0 as close as possible. As I previously mentioned, I am trying not only to strictly monitor open positions, but also make perfect entries. Through this, even if techincals of a particular trade go bust, there is a possibility for me to exit the trade with little or no loss at all.
That's it from my side. Although this was quite long report, it was important for me to introduce you, existing/future subscribers, with my devision of trades as well as the ways how this might help me/us in the future.
Lets hope for less stressful following week!