# SLTP Probability

This multifunctional analyzer expert calculates stop loss and take profit execution probability.

### General idea

If we have an open position, there may be three possible future options: stop loss is executed, take profit is executed or position remains open. Using probabilistic methods, the expert performs the following **functions**:

- calculating stop loss and take profit execution probabilities within an hour, a day or a week
- calculating the probability of a position remaining open at the end of the specified intervals
- calculating average profit and loss values as a result of stop loss and take profit execution. The average value is equal to the distance multiplied by execution probability
- assessing the price (trend) and volatility average change
- displaying possible future price movement trajectories within a specified time interval.

The price formation model (Black-Scholes model) assumes independent symbol price increments distributed according to the lognormal law. The equation from the following work are used for the calculation: Antoon Pelsser. Pricing Double Barrier Options: An Analytical Approach. January 15, 1997. ABN-Amro Bank Structured Products Group (AA 4410).

### Settings

**Trend mode**- trend accounting mode: calculate trend - consider the current trend; flat - trend is assumed to be missing;**Show mode**- possible price trajectory display mode**distance to the comment from the left**- distance from the left edge of the screen to a comment in pixels;**distance to the comment from the top**- distance from the upper edge of the screen to a comment in pixels.

### Displayed values

The table of comments displays:

**Position direction**(BUY/SELL) - symbol, take profit and stop loss levels;**TP: Probability of execution**- probability of a take profit activation within an hour, a day, a week;**SL: Probability of execution**- probability of a stop loss activation within an hour, a day, a week;**Hold Position: Probability**- probability of a position remaining open (neither stop loss, nor take profit are activated);**Average TP**=(TP distance) x (TP Probability) - average estimated profit received in case a take profit is activated (distance from the current price to a take profit level multiplied by execution probability);**Average SL**=(SL distance) x (SL Probability) - average estimated loss caused by a stop loss activation (distance from the current price to a stop loss level multiplied by execution probability);**Trend**- average price increment**Volatility**- symbol volatility within the period in %

### Usage features

The model assumes that a symbol price volatility and trend remain unchanged in the future. Regardless of other settings and the availability of an open position, the mode displaying the sample trajectories is always available. A trend value is also displayed at all times. If a symbol has no open positions and/or stop loss/take profit, the values of the corresponding probabilities are also absent.