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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.02 09:21
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD and GOLD (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.04 07:04
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 34 pips price movement
2016-04-04 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
AUD/USD M5: 34 pips price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.05 07:48
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Trade Balance and 25 pips price movement
2016-04-05 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]
[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.
AUDUSD M5: 25 pips price movement by Australia Trade Balance news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.05 08:02
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rates and 42 pips price movement
2016-04-05 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]
[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.
AUDUSD M5: 42 pips price movement by Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rates news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.06 09:46
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent Speaks and 23 pips price movement
2016-04-06 08:00 GMT | [AUD - RBA Assist Gov Kent Speech]
[AUD - RBA Assist Gov Kent Speech] = speaking about economic forecasting at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart.
AUDUSD M5: 23 pips price movement by RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent Speaks news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.11 07:14
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Home Loans and 42 pips price movement
2016-04-11 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Home Loans]
[AUD - Home Loans] = Change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes.
AUD/USD M5: 42 pips price movement by Australian Home Loans news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.12 07:12
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NAB Business Confidence and 30 pips price movement
2016-04-12 01:30 GMT | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]
[AUD - NAB Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry.
AUD/USD M5: 30 pips price movement by NAB Business Confidence news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.13 07:37
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment and 18 pips price movement
2016-04-13 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment]
[AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment] = Change in the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers.
AUD/USD M5: 18 pips price movement by Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.14 07:55
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 32 pips price movement
2016-04-14 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]
[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.
AUD/USD M5: 32 pips price movement by Australian Employment Change news event
Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.18 10:29
After Doha failure - new intra-day levels for AUD/USD and USD/CAD
USD/CAD M15: ranging on the bearish reversal area after good bullish breakout. This price for this pair broke 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for good breakout up to 1.2989 resistance level. Intra-day price is located on the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within key s/r levels for the intra-day bullish trend to be continuing or to the bearish reversal to be started.
AUD/USD M15: breaking 0.7696 resistance to above for the reversed back to intra-day bullish. The price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging reversal area to below for the primary bearish market condition. Intra-day price is on bear market rally for now for trying to break 100 SMA/200 SMA together with 0.7696 resistance once again to above to be reversed back to the bullish market condition.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.18 20:04
Technical evaluation of long-term BNZ forecasts (adapted from the article)
Bank of New Zealand made a long-term forecasts for some pairs as the following:
As we do not know the trading system they used for this forecast so let's evaluate on technical way by Metatrader together with using free Codebase indicators.
EUR/USD. As we see from the chart below - weekly price is on bearish market condition with the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:
The price is on local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started in the end of February this year: price is testing Fibo resistance level at 1.1464 to above for the rally to be continuing. The next alternative scenario was evaluated by BNZ and it is related to the following: the price will be on bearish ranging within narrow support/resistance levels such as the following: 23.6% Fibo level at 1.1241 and 50.0% Fibo level at 1.0993. Bank of New Zealand is expecting for this ranging bearish condition to be continuing up to the end of Q1'17 for example.I think the more likely sscenario for this pair in long-term situation is to ranging with more wide levels within 1.1400 and 1.1000, and those levels are fully related to the daily chart's s/r/ levels together RSI and price pattern's expectation for example.
NZD/USD. BNZ is estimating for this pair to be on bearish ranging within very narrow levels with the bearish trend to be continuing since 0.6500 to 0.6100. But if we look at weekly chart so we can see the bearish market condition with the different ranging levels: the price is on ranging within Fibo resistance level at 0.6965 and 61.8% Fibo support level at 0.6564. By the way, the ascending triangle p[attern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bear market rally to be continuing with the possible buloish reversal to be started in the future.
RSI indicator is also estinating the secondary rally with possible bullish reversal.Thus, the most likely scenarios for the pair are the following: bearish ranging within 0.69/0.65 levels, or the bullish erversal to be started in case the price breaks 0.6965 to above.