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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for AUD/USD

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2016.04.02 09:50 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.02 09:21

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD and GOLD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "Monetary policy considerations are front and center for the Australian Dollar in the week ahead, with key event risk on tap on the domestic and the external fronts. First, the RBA will deliver its monthly policy announcement. Then, minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting FOMC committee will give insight on policymakers’ thinking about on-coming rate hike prospects."




Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2016.04.04 07:13  

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.04 07:04

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 34 pips price movement

2016-04-04 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.2% in February 2016. This follows a rise of 0.2% in January 2016 and a rise of 0.3% in December 2015."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate was relatively unchanged (0.0%) in February 2016. This follows a rise of 0.3% in January 2016 and a relatively unchanged (0.0%) December 2015."
  • "In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 3.7% in February 2016 compared with February 2015."
  • "The following industries rose in trend terms in February 2016: Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.7%), Household goods retailing (0.3%), Food retailing (0.1%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.1%) and Department stores (0.2%). Other retailing (0.0%) was relatively unchanged in trend terms in February 2016."
  • "The following states and territories rose in trend terms in February 2016: New South Wales (0.2%), Victoria (0.2%), Queensland (0.2%), the Australian Capital Territory (1.1%), South Australia (0.3%), Tasmania (0.3%) and the Northern Territory (0.3%). Western Australia (-0.2%) fell in trend terms in February 2016."

==========

AUD/USD M5: 34 pips price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event :



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2016.04.05 07:50  

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.05 07:48

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Trade Balance and 25 pips price movement

2016-04-05 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -3.16B
  • forecast data is -2.55B
  • actual data is -3.41B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

==========

  • "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,600m in February 2016, a decrease of $14m on the deficit in January 2016."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,410m in February 2016, an increase of $254m (8%) on the deficit in January 2016."

==========

AUDUSD M5: 25 pips price movement by Australia Trade Balance news event :



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2016.04.05 08:04  

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.05 08:02

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rates and 42 pips price movement

2016-04-05 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

AUDUSD M5: 42 pips price movement by Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rates news event :



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2016.04.06 09:49  

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.06 09:46

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent Speaks and 23 pips price movement

2016-04-06 08:00 GMT | [AUD - RBA Assist Gov Kent Speech]

[AUD - RBA Assist Gov Kent Speech] = speaking about economic forecasting at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart.

==========


==========

AUDUSD M5: 23 pips price movement by RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent Speaks news event :



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2016.04.11 07:18  

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.11 07:14

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Home Loans and 42 pips price movement

2016-04-11 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Home Loans]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Home Loans] = Change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes.

==========

  • "The trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 0.4%. Owner occupied housing commitments fell 0.6%, while investment housing commitments was flat."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 2.6%."
  • "In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance were flat in February 2016."
  • "In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings fell 1.5%, the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings fell 0.2%, and the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings rose 0.1%."
  • "In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments fell to 14.7% in February 2016 from 15.1% in January 2016."

==========

AUD/USD M5: 42 pips price movement by Australian Home Loans news event :



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2016.04.12 07:14  

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.12 07:12

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NAB Business Confidence and 30 pips price movement

2016-04-12 01:30 GMT | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]

  • past data is -3
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is 6 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - NAB Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry.

==========

"The latest Survey provides strong evidence that the Australian business environment has not only weathered global uncertainties, but appears to have strengthened. There are also signs that the non-mining recovery is becoming a little more broad-based. Consequently, our outlook for the economy remains fundamentally unchanged, with no more cash rate cuts expected, although recent statements from the RBA reinforced the point that were the non-mining sector to show any signs of weakening, lower inflation and AUD strength has increased the RBA’s willingness to lower rates."

==========

AUD/USD M5: 30 pips price movement by NAB Business Confidence news event :



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2016.04.13 07:41  

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.13 07:37

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment and 18 pips price movement

2016-04-13 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment] = Change in the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers.

==========

It's hard to stay ahead of the markets, which is why Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans and his team produce this bite-sized roundup of the week's economic news and events, with clear analysis and insight plus the outlook for the week ahead. It's all you need to stay one step in front.



==========

AUD/USD M5: 18 pips price movement by Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment news event :



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2016.04.14 08:04  

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.14 07:55

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 32 pips price movement

2016-04-14 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

  • Employment increased 26,100 to 11,909,600. Full-time employment decreased 8,800 to 8,180,400 and part-time employment increased 34,900 to 3,729,200.
  • Unemployment decreased 7,300 to 723,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 7,900 to 515,900 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 1,800 to 208,400.
  • Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 5.7%.
  • Participation rate remained steady at 64.9%.
  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 17.5 million hours to 1,632.3 million hours.

==========

AUD/USD M5: 32 pips price movement by Australian Employment Change news event :



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2016.04.18 10:31  

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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.18 10:29

After Doha failure - new intra-day levels for AUD/USD and USD/CAD

USD/CAD M15: ranging on the bearish reversal area after good bullish breakout. This price for this pair broke 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for good breakout up to 1.2989 resistance level. Intra-day price is located on the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within key s/r levels for the intra-day bullish trend to be continuing or to the bearish reversal to be started.


  • if the price breaks 1.2989 resistance so the primary bullish trend will be continuing;
  • if the price breaks 1.2819 support level so the bearish reversal will be started without secondary ranging with good possible breakdown;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel.
Resistance
Support
1.29891.2918
1.2984
1.2819

AUD/USD M15: breaking 0.7696 resistance to above for the reversed back to intra-day bullish. The price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging reversal area to below for the primary bearish market condition. Intra-day price is on bear market rally for now for trying to break 100 SMA/200 SMA together with 0.7696 resistance once again to above to be reversed back to the bullish market condition.


  • if the price breaks 0.7696 resistance so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish condition will be started;
  • if the price breaks 0.7642 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing without ranging up to 0.7630 level as the nearest bearish target;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel.
Resistance
Support
0.76960.7642
0.7722
0.7630

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev 2016.04.19 06:50  

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.18 20:04

Technical evaluation of long-term BNZ forecasts (adapted from the article)

Bank of New Zealand made a long-term forecasts for some pairs as the following:

 PairBy end of Q2'16
(June 2016)
By end of Q3'16
(September 2016)
By end of Q4'16
(December 2016)
By end of Q1'17
(March 2016)
EUR/USD
1.1200
1.1100
1.0900
1.0900
NZD/USD
0.6500
0.6300
0.6100
0.6100

As we do not know the trading system they used for this forecast so let's evaluate on technical way by Metatrader together with using free Codebase indicators.

EUR/USD. As we see from the chart below - weekly price is on bearish market condition with the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • Fibo resistance level at 1.1464 located near the border between the primary bearish and the ranging bullish trend on the chart, and
  • support level at 1.0821 located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area on the primary bearish trend.


The price is on local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started in the end of February this year: price is testing Fibo resistance level at 1.1464 to above for the rally to be continuing. The next alternative scenario was evaluated by BNZ and it is related to the following: the price will be on bearish ranging within narrow support/resistance levels such as the following: 23.6% Fibo level at 1.1241 and 50.0% Fibo level at 1.0993. Bank of New Zealand is expecting for this ranging bearish condition to be continuing up to the end of Q1'17 for example.

I think the more likely sscenario for this pair in long-term situation is to ranging with more wide levels within 1.1400 and 1.1000, and those levels are fully related to the daily chart's s/r/ levels together RSI and price pattern's expectation for example.

NZD/USD. BNZ is estimating for this pair to be on bearish ranging within very narrow levels with the bearish trend to be continuing since 0.6500 to 0.6100. But if we look at weekly chart so we can see the bearish market condition with the different ranging levels: the price is on ranging within Fibo resistance level at 0.6965 and 61.8% Fibo support level at 0.6564. By the way, the ascending triangle p[attern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bear market rally to be continuing with the possible buloish reversal to be started in the future.


RSI indicator is also estinating the secondary rally with possible bullish reversal.

Thus, the most likely scenarios for the pair are the following: bearish ranging within 0.69/0.65 levels, or the bullish erversal to be started in case the price breaks 0.6965 to above.


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