My TREND INDICATOR - NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! thread was the most widely viewed thread in TradeStation history. I believe it still holds the record for the most number of views. I have decided to "revive" it again.
The bottom line is you don't have to end the day, week, month, or year in the red. You can be profitable. You may not win every trade but you will be profitable.
I know most of you have read about money management, risk management, position sizing, stops, etc... So then what are the reason(s) you are still losing? Is the market beating you? Are your stops being hunting? Or are you simply giving your money away?
When you enter the TRADING JUNGLE, you are up against the best traders in the world. They are smarter, faster, have more money, have better equipment, better access to information... better everything than you do! What makes you believe you can win? What "edge" are you bringing to the table that will allow you to take their money? Don't you know the game is "rigged" against you just like in Vegas?
What's the reason you see some currency pairs move over a 100 pips a day yet you're happy barely breaking even? What makes trading so difficult for you? What are you doing?
I know you have read about having a trading plan, haven't you? Do you have one? Come on, be honest... DO YOU REALLY HAVE A TRADING PLAN?
If you do, DO YOU REALLY TRADE ACCORDING TO YOUR PLAN? Come on now, it's time to FESS UP.
What about all those trading books, tapes, videos, and seminars? Ever wonder why there are so many? I just ONE had the answer, then wouldn't it go "viral" and everybody would be trading that method? THINK ABOUT IT.
What about all those indicators, EAs, blackboxes, trading signals and systems for sale? If one of them worked wouldn't it go "viral", too?
I have posted hundreds of FREE INDICATORS for TradeStation, eSignal and MetaTrader. Why? Because I can! I don't like seeing people pay hundreds and thousands of dollars for code, most of which, doesn't work or is way overpriced, IMHO. If you check me out, you'll see I have been banned from many forums. My FREE indicators are a THREAT to their cashflow. My free education materials also threaten their cashflow. Just do the math.
I have been accused of "renaming" indicators. Yes, I rename them AFTER I enhance them because if I post a modified version with the exact same name as the original then it gets "stepped on" and any good programmer knows better than to step on code. But I post my revised/enhanced/fixed version FOR FREE on the same site I downloaded them from. So where's the crime? Some people let their egos get in the way.
I have been accused of SPAMMING because I am an IB for MB Trading. Before I was an IB, I didn't even know what an IB was. The reason I am an IB was because when I found out that there is NO FIXED SPREAD in Forex, I immediately opened an account with EFX Group and posted about it everywhere I could. That had the effect of bringing EFX more customers. As a THANK YOU, they made me an IB. And it got me banned from sites that had FIXED SPREAD BROKERS as advertisers.
Whenever MONEY is involved, it is a DOG EAT DOG, EAT CAT TOO jungle. The sooner you learn that fact the better.
The goal of this thread is to show you how to NEVER LOSE AGAIN. Trading is simple. People traded long before there were computers and indicators. So why do you have so many computers and indicators?
Do you really know how the FOREX market operates? Or do you just know how to place an order? What have you gotten yourself into? THINK ABOUT IT!
TO BE CONTINUED...
Trading is simple.
Trading is about making and keeping money. A big part of that is know when not to trade.
Ever now someone who went to the casino, it could be you, and the story goes like this...
"I was up X dollars, so I was playing with the casino's money and then the game turned cold."
"So did you win or lose money?"
What's the reason you don't quit while you're ahead in a game where the odds are stacked against you? Greed and stupidity come to mind first.
When you are trading, do you spend more time making back losses or more time riding profit?
We get back to the question, "Are you giving your money away?"
If you were going to hire someone to trade for you, what would you ask them? Would you want to see their track record? Would you want to know EXACTLY how they are going to trade your money? I bet you either answered "yes" and "yes" or you answer, "I would never let anyone else trade with my money". Is that correct? Do you know your own track record? Can you explain EXACTLY how you trade your money? THINK ABOUT IT.
You either win or lose when you trade, right? So what's your edge that stacks the deck in your favor?
What is trading? Do you realize trading is about 99% waiting for something to happen so you can either enter or exit the trade? Did you ever think about it in that way?
Do you have a list of conditions that tell you NOT to trade? If not, what's the reason you don't? Did you ever think about having such a list?
I want you to ponder these questions before we begin to STOP LOSING.
DRAIN THE BANKS!!
What goes up....
I want you to notice something about your replies... are they "observations" or "interpretations"? There is a HUGE DIFFERENCE.
Observations would be:
"The rightmost candle is red."
"The rightmost candle's high was lower than the previous candle's high."
"The rightmost candle's low was higher than the previous candle's low."
"Price closed down"
"The bars seem to span about a hundred, or more pips each. Some have long wicks, and some with a little being either above and/or below the bodies."
Interpretations would be:
"i noticed the reversal candle (is it called a Doji?) that signaled the big ride down town."
"there's consolidations & breakout"
Do you see the difference?
The point is OBSERVATIONS are facts. INTERPRETATIONS are opinions.
Facts are true statements. Opinions are debatable. Facts will make you money. Opinions can cause you to lose your entire account.
When you can state OBSERVATIONS instead of INTERPRETATIONS then you will taken the first step to NEVER LOSING AGAIN.
IF YOU GET ON THE WRONG TRAIN, HEADING IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION THAT YOU WANT TO GO, WHEN DO YOU GET OFF THAT TRAIN? DO YOU GET OFF ON THE FIRST STOP OR DO YOU WAIT UNTIL THE TRAIN REACHES ITS FINAL DESTINATION?
NO ONE KNOWS and that's why the market exists.
You are exhibiting confusion and emotions. I don't say that to be mean or ridicule you.
If you had a plan, you would exit, wait and see what happens next. If the train did reverse, you could probably run and catch it. But if it did not reverse, at least you are no longer going in the wrong direction.
HOW DO YOU KNOW WHAT DIRECTION THE TRAIN IS MOVING?
I am not trying to lead you.
All I want you do to is SEE. To actually SEE price and what it is doing.
"In forecasting the trend direction, i majorly use a combination of moving averages, rsi and stoch. I also look at fib levels and read economic data to better predict the trend direction."
What is the reason you think you need all of those indicators? Can't you just SEE which way the price is moving? Price is an INPUT to moving averages, rsi and stoch. That means they lag. But fib levels, now you're getting warm.
Predict? There is no need to predict if one can RECOGNIZE accurately and react accordingly. Price can only go up or down. THINK ABOUT IT.
Can you fill in the blanks:
1) I will NOT trade if/when __________________________________________
2) I will ONLY trade LONG if/when ____________________________________
3) I will ONLY trade SHORT if/when ___________________________________
4) I will STOP trading for the day if/when ______________________________
5) I will STOP trading if I lose ____ pips or _____ trades in a row or $_______
6) I will STOP trading if i make ____ pips or _____ trades in a row or $______
7) I ONLY trade between the hours of _____ and _____
8) I ONLY trade on Sun( ) Mon( ) Tues( ) Wed( ) Thur( ) Fri( ) Sat( )
9) I will NEVER trade if/when ________________________________________
10) I ALWAYS do this BEFORE I begin trading ___________________________