Forecast and levels for Dollar Index - page 12

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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.19 07:22

Dollar Index - weekly ranging near bullish reversal; 95.14 is the key (based on the article)

Dollar Index by Metatrader 5

  • "Last Week's FOMC policy meeting saw interest rate expectations shift as markets priced in a fourth rate hike this year- near-term bullish for the USD. The Dollar Index posted an outside weekly reversal through confluence resistance with the rally stretching into the 200-week moving average, now at ~95. A newly identified ascending pitchfork formation extending off the 2017 and 2018 lows also has price testing the upper 50-line into the start of the week."
  • "The Dollar is testing near-term resistance here and while we could see some pullback in price, the broader focus is on a hold above the 93.89-94.20 pivot zone. A breach higher from here targets 96.04/35 backed by the median-line confluence just above the 97-handle. A break below last week’s low targets the median-line of the newly added formation around ~92.90s with critical support / bullish invalidation steady at the yearly open / 52-week moving average at 92.28/45. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading weakness while above 93.90."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.26 21:07

Dollar Index Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Member Bostic Speech and range price movement 

2018-06-26 18:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks]

[USD - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks] = Speech at the Birmingham Civil Rights Institute, in Alabama.

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From forexlive article :

  • disruptions from trade war is going to be painful
  • Fed's job is a lot harder amid trade uncertainty 

Meanwhile, while on the topic of auto tariffs, the major automotive trade group says that: 

  • Buyers of imported vehicles would face an average price increase of $5800 from a 25% import tariff based on Commerce Department data 
  • will tell trauma administration at 25% tariff on imported vehicles would cost US consumers 45 billion in higher vehicle costs 
The higher tariffs can also lead to US auto producers boosting the price of their domestically produced cars. If a tariff is 25% and the US car company can compete with a 10% increase, they might be inclined to raise their prices 15% all things being equal. Who wins? Not the consumer. 

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by FOMC Member Bostic Speech news event 

Dollar Index by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.13 16:35

Dollar Index - daily bullish breakout; weekly bullish reversa; 95.25 is the key (based on the article) 

Dollar Index (DXY) by Metatrader 5

  • "As the US Dollar basket yet again approaches the 95.00 handle, eyes are back on the familiar resistance, which has previously capped its rise. This is situated at 95.20, which had curbed further gains for the DXY on June 21st and 28th. The question is, will it hold again?"
  • "Trend signals suggest that there is scope for additional gains in the USD. RSI indicators on a daily timeframe is just shy of moving into the overbought area, subsequently, signalling that a continued USD rise will likely be limited. Alongside this, momentum indicators have moved into positive territory, showing slightly positive signs, however, progress is needed."
  • "Short term resistance at the 94.76 level, which marks the 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement level of the 94.20-93.33 fall is holding up for now. However, a break above this could set the DXY on course for a retest of the June double top."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following custom indicators:


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Sergey Golubev  

Dollar Index Technical Analysis 2018, July: Ranging Within Narrow Area Waiting For Direction

Weekly price is located to be inside Ichimoku cound in the ranging market condition within the narrow 95.25/93.17 support/resistance levels waiting for the bullish reversal to be continuing or to the bearish trend to be resumed.

W1 price is on ranging market condition:

  • The price is located to be inside Ichimoku cloud/kumo and above Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bullish and the primary bearish on the chart) for the bullish market condition to be started.
  • Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku which is indicating the possible primary bullish condition to be continuing in the near future.
  • Chinkou Span line crossed the price from below to above for the possible breakout.
  • Nearest support levels are 93.17 and key support level at 90.25.
  • Nearest resistance level is 95.25.

[image]

If W1 price breaks 95.25 resistance level to above so the reversal to the primary bullish market condition will be continuing (the price will broke Ichimoku cloud/kumo to be in bullish area of the chart).
If W1 price breaks 93.17 support level to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If W1 price breaks 90.25 support level so the price will be fully reversed back to the bearish.
If not so the price will be inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close W1 price to break 95.25 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch W1 price to break 90.25 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
94.9993.17
95.2590.25

Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly Ichimoku chart by MT5

SUMMARY: ranging bullish
TREND: ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting for the direction of the trend to be started

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.01 09:24

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY and GOLD: CB Consumer Confidence

2018-07-31 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 127.1
  • forecast data is 126.5
  • actual data is 127.4 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased marginally in July, following a modest decline in June. The Index now stands at 127.4 (1985=100), up from 127.1 in June. The Present Situation Index improved from 161.7 to 165.9, while the Expectations Index declined from 104.0 last month to 101.7 this month."

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Dollar Index (DXY) M30: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

Dollar Index (DXY) chart by Metatrader 5

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USD/JPY M30: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/JPY chart by Metatrader 5

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XAU/USD M30: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

GOLD (XAU/USD) chart by Metatrader 5

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.24 16:33

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index (DXY), USD/JPY and USD/CNH: United States Durable Goods Orders

2018-08-24 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 0.8%
  • forecast data is -0.7%
  • actual data is -1.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From thestandard article :

  • "Orders for long-lasting U.S. factory goods fell by 1.7 percent in July, the third decrease in the past four months. The Commerce Department said today that durable goods orders _ items meant to last at least three years such as autos and appliances _ totaled US$246.9 billion last month. Much of that decline came from a steep 35.4 percent drop in orders for non-defense aircraft, a volatile category on a monthly basis."

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Dollar Index (DXY) M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

Dollar Index (DXY) by Metatrader 5

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

USD/JPY by Metatrader 5

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

USD/CNH by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.28 08:53

Dollar Index - daily correction to the bearish reversal; 94.59/94.36 are the keys (based on the article)

Dollar Index (DXY) by Metatrader 5

  • "The ONE Thing: Despite a supportive message at Jackson Hole, the US Dollar sold off. There are a few things that one could point to (I for one, choose China,) but regardless, the hot-handed US Economy may have outrun the pack with little gas left in the tank as speculators are holding their longest positions in a year and recent performance over the last few months has been waning. If the US Economy can not continue to outperform at this out-of-character pace, we could see a softer US Dollar ahead."
  • "As China has strengthened the Renminbi, the EUR is also staging a comeback of sorts after a modest move above the 55-DMA could trigger a move to the head-and-shoulder neckline of 1.1785 with building bullish momentum. Monday’s drop in the US Dollar showed that even constructive rhetoric from Fed governors was/ has not been enough to lift the greenback that has struggled since Trump complained about Powell not being an ‘easy money’ Fed Chairman."
  • "The US Dollar is seeing its sharpest pullback after touching technical resistance mid-month at 97. The Dollar Index has pulled back by 2.4% despite hawkish talk from Fed members. The key question on the charts will be as to whether the next move higher in US Dollar will result in a lower-high that is followed by the next big breakdown."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After 


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Dollar Unchanged Ahead of Fed Meeting, New Zealand Dollar Jumps

777tradesresearch, 2018.09.26 06:37

The U.S. Dollar was unchanged on Wednesday as markets awaited the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, while the New Zealand Dollar jumped against the dollar on a better-than-expected business confidence report.
The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates later in the day. Markets also anticipate another rate hike before the year end, although the outlook for 2019 is less clear, according to analysts.
As well as an interest rate decision, the Federal Reserve will also serve up its summary of economic projections, outlining policymakers' expectations on economic growth, inflation and unemployment.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, was unchanged at 93.73 by 11:01PM ET (03:01 GMT). The index has slipped around 3% since August.
Global trade tension remained in focus as China’s Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said Beijing would resume trade talks only if the U.S. show sincerity and not put a knife at China’s throat.


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