Forecast and levels for Oil - page 13

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.07.03 11:19

Crude Oil - ranging for direction (based on the article)

  • "Our researchers believe the technical reason why Crude Oil will continue lower is that price rotation has continued to support a downside price trend (Bearish) and that recent price resistance near the upper price channel has been rejected. This is a near perfect example of how the Fibonacci price theory works in real markets. The price must always attempt to establish “new price highs” or “new price lows” AT ALL TIMES."
  • "After the deep price bottom in December 2018 near $42.50, oil price began an upside price move reaching just above our $66 target in late April 2019. Since then, another downside price move, which we called in our May 21 article, has driven oil prices to the $50.60 level. The current upside price move has recently retested the $60 resistance level and has pulled back to where we are today around $56 per barrel."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.07.06 07:17

Crude Oil - ranging on the bearish zone (based on the article)

Crude Oil by Metatrader 5

Crude Oil by Metatrader 5

  • "The oil market is providing little cheer for the bulls these days. At the mercy of an uncertain global outlook, U.S. President Donald Trump's Twitter account, China-U.S. trade tensions, macroeconomic kerfuffle in Europe and all else in between, Brent – the global proxy oil futures benchmark – remains in technical backwardation six-month out, i.e. the current price is trading at a premium to forward prices. But examine closely, and you will find that the premium itself has narrowed to less than $2 per barrel. It barely stayed above a dollar on Tuesday (July 2) at the conclusion of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) twice-delayed ministers' meeting - with their 10 non-OPEC Russian-led counterparts to rollover collective output cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) - before returning to around $1.50." 
  • "Yet for all of that, both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remain range-bound unable to escape oscillation in the $50-70 per barrel range for most of this year, forward outlook remains one of lower prices. Park the supply-side argument for a minute, even though the U.S. – currently the world's largest crude oil producer – is pumping 12.3 million bpd, and is tipped to hit 13.4 million bpd by some forecasters."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.07.14 07:58

Crude Oil - ranging near bearish reversal (based on the article)

Crude Oil daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Crude oil prices climbed roughly 4.5% over the last 5 trading days as the commodity continues to edge higher. It now appears that crude oil has smashed through bearish downtrend resistance formed by the series of lower lows since late April after this past week’s healthy advance. Bullish momentum could be at risk, however, as the recent streak of gains runs into technical resistance."
  • "Crude oil prices currently sit slightly above $60.00 and just below technical resistance posed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the commodity’s trading range since printing its year-to-date high of $66.47 on April 23. While the short-term bullish uptrend line does look to provide a bit of buoyance to crude oil price action, this level of confluence threatens to keep further upside at bay. Yet, if crude oil bulls can top this zone, the door to $62.00 could open up quickly with prices possibly eyeing the 23.6% Fib as a next upside target."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicator:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.07.19 14:22

WTI Crude Oil - ranging to breakdown; 54.72 is the key (based on  the article)

WTI Crude Oil chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Oil is up 0.83 percent today and trying to recover its steepest weekly decline (down nearly 7%, something which was not witnessed since May), and is still set to close the week lower. However, WTI is up 17.21 percent year-to-date and Brent has soared 14.26 percent YTD. The below chart shows the weekly percentage loss for WTI."
  • "Looking at the speculative market, it is evidently clear that the hedge funds are no longer interested in opening any new long oil positions. The chart below shows that the net short and long WTI positions by hedge funds. It is important to keep in mind that this data is as of July 7, so the recent situation isn't clearly reflected in this data, but one cannot ignore the fact that long speculative positions on oil have fallen to their lowest level since 2013."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase: 

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.07.28 08:51

Crude Oil - bearish ranging near bullish reversal; waiting for direction (based on  the article)

Brent Crude Oil daily Ichimoku chart

  • "Crude oil prices closed flat last week after fluctuating 4% between key areas of technical confluence while traders struggle to determine the commodity’s next direction. Crude oil prices have remained subdued since sliding nearly 10% earlier this month – the sharp selloff accelerated after a hard rejection at technical resistance."
  • "If price action can top $57.50 next week – the price level near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of crude oil’s sharp climb to $66.00 off its December 24 low – oil trader sentiment might start to shift back in favor of bulls. Evidence of bullish momentum returning to crude oil prices could be provided by the RSI reclaiming a reading above 50. If these technical objectives can be overcome, it will likely open up the door for crude oil prices to test bearish trendline resistance from the April 23 and July 11 intraday swing highs."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.08.04 09:59

Crude Oil - bearish ranging for direction (based on the article)

Crude Oil chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Oil prices posted the largest daily range since December 26th (2018 low) on Thursday but despite the decline, prices are poised to close just 1.26% lower on the week after rebounding off confluence support. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil weekly price chart(WTI) heading into the August open."
  • "Bottom line:Oil prices turned from key resistance last month and the decline is now testing the first major support hurdle at 54.53. The short-bias may be vulnerable a for a near-term recovery while above this threshold with the broader risk weighted to the downside while within this formation. Stay nimble heading into the August open- I’ll publish an updated Crude Oil Price Outlook once we get further clarity in near-term price action."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.08.11 09:28

Crude Oil - bearish ranging for direction; 55.86 is the key for the bearish to be continuing; 50.04 is the bottom (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Crude oil has been slumping hard lately and things could continue to worsen after a short-term reprieve. The situation could turn outright nasty if stocks roll over, certainly a distinct possibility. WTI is the stronger of the two major contracts, with it still above the June low and Brent trading below.
    The technical outlook is murky at the immediate moment as things have turned a bit choppy near-term. Solid price levels aren’t readily available, but the 55.60/56.30-area (July lows/200-day) look likely to prove problematic."
  • "On the downside, to get momentum going again the weekly/June low will need to be broken, looking at sub-50.47 for this to develop. All-in-all, risk/reward isn’t optimal at this juncture. That should clear up here shortly though as we progress through the week. Generally speaking, looking for lower prices to unfold."
  • "Lately, the Brent contract hasn’t fared as well as its U.S. counterpart, which makes it more vulnerable to more selling ahead. This makes the U.K. contract more appealing as a short candidate once a bounce plays itself out. Watch the June low at 60.28 for resistance. On another round of weakness watch a pair of trend-lines running over from 2016 as support; 55/52.50-area."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.08.26 09:17

Crude Oil - bearish trend to be resumed; 55.86 is the key (based on  the article)

Crude Oil daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Crude oil prices sank over 1.5% this past week in choppy trading. I noted early last Tuesday that crude oil prices were showing signs of weakness as volatility climbed amid lingering US-China trade war uncertainty as Jackson Hole loomed. Surely enough, the expectation came to fruition as bearish fundamentals aligned with a technical backdrop that pointed to the possibility of sustained selling pressure."
  • "Evidence of waning bullish prospects for crude oil prices from a technical standpoint is also suggested by the wilting RSI as the indicator dipped back below 50 and looks to continue its overarching trend lower since April. Moreover, the struggle to reclaim the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages may keep a lid on any rebound attempt."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.08.29 11:15

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging for direction; daily bearish ranging; weekly bearish reversal

2019-08-28 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -2.7M
  • forecast data is -2.8M
  • actual data is -10.0M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 10.0 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 
Interesting combination of moving averages, I use the same period but exponential. The 57.00 level has been acting as a good resistance for WTI oil. A breakout of that level could accelerate the bullish momentum.
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