God Indicator - page 2

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Yes, you're quite right, the theory is very different to the practical application.

But a PhD isn't an entire trading system. After the first year of research I will be expected to find some small thing that I will focus on. It won't be a complete system, it won't be anywhere close to a complete system. It will just be investigating one small piece of theory.

In the end, nobody will even care what my PhD is in. All institutions will care about is whether or not I have one as it shows the ability to independently and successfully undertake high level research. That's it.

 
Chewyraver:
Yes, you're quite right, the theory is very different to the practical application.

But a PhD isn't an entire trading system. After the first year of research I will be expected to find some small thing that I will focus on. It won't be a complete system, it won't be anywhere close to a complete system. It will just be investigating one small piece of theory.

In the end, nobody will even care what my PhD is in. All institutions will care about is whether or not I have one as it shows the ability to independently and successfully undertake high level research. That's it.

People need patience , you need to stick to a system only then it will work for you , otherwise it is the same as "grass-hopping" . Traders do not realize that trading requires a lot of patience and self control.. Also you need a sufficient capital to trade. A 500 USD account will not become 1 million over a week a month or even a year . There are many obstacles such as "account size" and money management factor. Wealth development takes time.

another thing you cannot mix education with trading.. there are completely different things and requires different discipline. Though i am sure you can start your thesis on "Patience in Trading" for your PHD

-guyver

 

try this indicator

it's very simple, and you might not learn it in your PhD, but it works:

Is there more idiots than paper or more paper than idiots?

 

cybernetic...

...analysis for stocks and futures by John Ehlers.

I suggest u try read that and see how it is to think out of the box. u migt come up with ur own ideas after

 
kico2:
...analysis for stocks and futures by John Ehlers. I suggest u try read that and see how it is to think out of the box. u migt come up with ur own ideas after

Thanks for the suggestion! I have actually skimmed over the book and used it in my honours thesis. It was very good and I hope to be able to read it fully in the future. He certainly does think out side of the box, a very insightful and creative book.

 
Guyver:
People need patience , you need to stick to a system only then it will work for you , otherwise it is the same as "grass-hopping" . Traders do not realize that trading requires a lot of patience and self control.. Also you need a sufficient capital to trade. A 500 USD account will not become 1 million over a week a month or even a year . There are many obstacles such as "account size" and money management factor. Wealth development takes time.

another thing you cannot mix education with trading.. there are completely different things and requires different discipline. Though i am sure you can start your thesis on "Patience in Trading" for your PHD

-guyver

Thanks for the contribution. But I don't think you get it. I'm not researching trading, I'm not researching systems, I'm not researching making 1 million in a week from 500. I'm not researching money management, I'm not researching wealth development. I'm not using this PhD (a thesis, not a paper) to trade. And, what I'm doing doesn't require the mental discipline needed for trading.

I'm researching ways to model stochastic processes (pure mathematics) and as part of the PhD, I'm going to need an application for my work, the major applications I'll be using will be stock and foreign exchange. There'll also be interest rates, options, hydrological data, astronomical data, the list goes on, just the major ones will be financial. I'm not making a trading system, I'm not expecting this to be used for a trading system, I'm only doing financial modeling with the possibility of it being used in other areas (such as astronomy).

Many research is now in main stream use such as the models used to price derivatives such as options. They are not trading systems, they are financial models, which is what I'm working on.

The professionals who used research and mathematics are actually quite talented. I believe it's called quantitative finance and most of the practitioners come from scientific backgrounds such as computer science and physics. In the July/August edition of Your Trading Edge (magazine) they had an article about robo trading and how they made up 60% of all stock trades in the US and delivered $U21 billion of profits, the june edition of Money also had a similar article. These computers pretty much trade the same way a human does, only it's all quantified in that everything is executed with as much precision as possible, with little human interference, and thus, it can be completely quantified and made into a financial model. Though, this is not exactly what I'm doing, it is very interesting that it makes up such a large portion of the market.

 
Chewyraver:
Thanks for the contribution. But I don't think you get it.

Ya, perhaps i didn't get the real idea of this thread but i read this as first post

"Hello Everyone,

Next year I start my Ph.D in Computer Science / Quantitative Finance. Everything is set to go, but I have a question for the general trading community.

Try to imagine the ultimate technical indicator, it must be only one indicator, it may be one you make up it doesn't have to exist but it cannot be an indicator that specifically forecasts. Dub this the God Indicator.

Now, what is your idea of this indicator? What does it do?"

So i took it as a trading question .. may be both of us are int the wrong "section" of the forum

-guyver

 
Guyver:
Ya, perhaps i didn't get the real idea of this thread but i read this as first post

"Hello Everyone,

Next year I start my Ph.D in Computer Science / Quantitative Finance. Everything is set to go, but I have a question for the general trading community.

Try to imagine the ultimate technical indicator, it must be only one indicator, it may be one you make up it doesn't have to exist but it cannot be an indicator that specifically forecasts. Dub this the God Indicator.

Now, what is your idea of this indicator? What does it do?"

So i took it as a trading question .. may be both of us are int the wrong "section" of the forum

-guyver

Ahhh yes, I see where you're coming from now . What I'm trying to find out is what other people see as problems with trading, and what they think could be a way to improve they way they do things when it comes to technical analysis.

Maybe that explains things better

 
Chewyraver:
Ahhh yes, I see where you're coming from now . What I'm trying to find out is what other people see as problems with trading, and what they think could be a way to improve they way they do things when it comes to technical analysis. Maybe that explains things better

One problem with trading are the indicators.

Problems with indicators...

1.Most fail when there is "noise" or a sideways market.

2.Most fail when during small counter-trend waves in price movement.

3.Most do not take into consideration daily levels (pivots, fibos, camarilla, pschological levels, etc)

4. Most are just useless.

A good indicator should keep one out of the "noise" and also recognize insignificant counter waves, so that you can hold your current trade and not panic out.

 
Zion_Lion:
One problem with trading are the indicators.

Problems with indicators...

1.Most fail when there is "noise" or a sideways market.

2.Most fail when during small counter-trend waves in price movement.

3.Most do not take into consideration daily levels (pivots, fibos, camarilla, pschological levels, etc)

4. Most are just useless.

A good indicator should keep one out of the "noise" and also recognize insignificant counter waves, so that you can hold your current trade and not panic out.

Ok, great points there thanks! (except number 4, that's taken for granted! :P)

I like that you mentioned noise, even though it's very obvious, it is often given little consideration. Sideways markets could be considered a type of noise too, for example, a SMA of 10 might filter out typical noise, but not the side ways market, but a SMA of 100 might filter out the sideways market. So, noise can be seen on different resolutions. Counter-trends could also be considered noise. If, trading is done short term, then a counter trend could be seen as a new trend, but, with a long term outlook, the counter trend is noise. Noise is very general, and indicators that can perform at different resolutions such as MAs are a good way to accommodate all of this.

The issue I have a fixation on in terms of noise, is lag. For example, the SMA is lagged, it smooths really well, but because of the lag it looses it's usefulness fairly quickly in that regard.

How do you picture number 3 being improved? Can you pick a popular indicator (SMA, MACD, etc...) and explain how it might function?

Brain storming is always fun!

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