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My Holy Grail!! EA with NO LOSSES!

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marcoblbr
99
marcoblbr 2010.07.07 09:22 
Hey guys,

I've been working on my EA for the last 2 months! The source code has over 1300 lines and I'm sharing the idea and some results. I would really appreciate your opinion about my strategy and some advice on how to make it better!

The idea is really simple... Build an EA that has no losses!

Here's how it works:

If you open a buy position and it hits your take profit, you get it, but if it hits your stop loss (it's not a real stop loss, the EA manages it), then you don't close the order, but instead, open a position in the opposite direction doubling the amount of lots. When the sum of profits equals zero you close both positions and start the process again.

For example, the picture shows a buy order of 0.2 lot. It hit the stop loss so I opened a sell position of 0.4 lot. When I added both profits and it came to zero, I ended both positions! This way I never lose!! Note that the balance before and after these transactions are pratically the same.





The same situation can happen with 3 or more orders. Buy 0.1 lot, Sell 0.2 lot, Buy 0.4 lot and so on! I've set a limit of 1.6 lots so the EA doesn't keep doing this forever!


And it's working... Here are my results on the Strategy Tester from June 1st till July 7th, 2010. Note that there are a lot of arrows. That's the robot fixing a wrong position. When it ends all of them, the balance keeps the same as before.





But since it can't do this forever, if it wants to open a position of 3.2 lots, it cancel all the orders (0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.8, 1.6) and I lose money, which happens usually once every 1 month or 2, but when it happens, I lose almost my 2 months profits!!!! Here's the results from January 1st until July 7th, 2010. Only 3 losses, but 3 big losses!! Note the big lot size in green when the falls happen! For the moment I'm not using Money Management and all winning transactions use 0.2 lot.





Here's the link will full results from the Strategy Tester:

http://www.students.ic.unicamp.br/~ra062781/results.htm


So, the losses happen because of what I'm calling the ping pong zone: buy then falls, sell then raises, and so on, without getting out of this zone, until I'm losing so much money that it is better to close everything and take the losses.




Well, I'm stucked now and don't know what to do! The idea is good. For the moment I started only with Buy Orders and I was able to make good profits when the Euro was falling like crazy (EURUSD M15).


So my questions:


1) How to avoid or manage this ping pong zone ? Any indicators I could use on the M15 ?

2) What do you guys think about this strategy ? Any suggestions, critics ?

3) Also, I'm opening orders simply by checking the price of the last 2 bars. When it raises a certain amount of pips I make a buy order and then use a moving stop loss or take profit and my algorithm to manage the falls. Any ideas of simple ways to open orders ?


I would really appreciate any suggestions / tips / comments. I didn't know anything about Forex 2 months ago and after I discovered it, I spent all my time studying it and trying to make a Holy Grail!! I'm so happy I learned C in College!


Thanks!!


Marco
Philippe
201
Philippe 2010.07.07 09:33  

you just write the same type EA as me ! Only diffrence, i call your Ping Pong zone "Black Hole" :)

I have test a lot of thing to filter entry trade to avoid black hole...but nothing. You avoid one to fall in another.

I'm trying to manage them from inside, taking profit from win trade... Black Hole could disappear for 1 or 2 years on some good parameters but still appear one day !

Ubzen
5394
Ubzen 2010.07.07 09:51  
marcoblbr:

1) How to avoid or manage this ping pong zone ? Any indicators I could use on the M15 ?

2) What do you guys think about this strategy ? Any suggestions, critics ?

3) Also, I'm opening orders simply by checking the price of the last 2 bars. When it raises a certain amount of pips I make a buy order and then use a moving stop loss or take profit and my algorithm to manage the falls. Any ideas of simple ways to open orders ?


I would really appreciate any suggestions / comments. I didn't know anything about Forex 2 months ago and after I discovered it, I spent all my time studying it and trying to make a Holy Grail!! I'm so happy I learned C in College!


Thanks!!


Marco

1) Increase the time zone. Bands because you wanna make sure u zig-zagging when you enter.

2) Gambler type strategy. Yeah, keep your rabbits foot and 4-leaf clovers on you at all times.

3) Use bands with 3-deviations moves on break-out. You're hoping it continues trending in the direction of the break so that your trailing stop could lock some good gains. If not then it's a false break, My thinking is it's not likely to lunch 3-standard deviations in one direction and then repeat it again in the other direction. Which is the big idea with these systems "what's the probability of something really bad happening".

 

I believe this strategy is also referred to as a Grid with Martingale. I'd admit the logic is much more tempting than the No-Stop loss systems. However, the draw downs are so deep that running this on large money accounts have to be a test of nerves and bankroll. I've seen lucky people win year in and year out with Martingale type systems, however, whenever I demo or simulated with such system, it killed me. What you have to ask yourself is if you're one of those Lucky types. If not then don't use this system.

marcoblbr
99
marcoblbr 2010.07.07 09:53  

Matutin,

Awesome!! I liked your Black Hole and it's really good to know someone's on the same boat!! We can work together to solve this issue! I had the idea of doubling the lot after applying the same strategy on Blackjack. I was never good at counting cards, so this strategy proved to be very efficient with $1000 cash and $10 bets :-)


So, for how long have you been working on your EA and tried to avoid the Black Hole ? It's been a week for me thinking on a solution. I already tried to increase or reduce the stop losses on each new trade but eventually it happens again and with big stop losses, you lose much more money! It's impossible to avoid it 100% since you can simply buy and the price can fall.


Maybe the solution is to use a different strategy after the third try. I'm curious about your EA. Can you post some results of the strategy tester ? Also, have you been trading on a live account or you are still developing it like me, and based on what technique you open trades ? I'm almost ready to try it for real... I'm looking for a trend indicator to use so that I stop opening positions when it detects a flat zone!!

Paul
632
Paul 2010.07.07 10:09  
A lot of brokers don't allow hedging that is you can't have two trades in opposite directions. Have you tried reversing the trade at the stop with double the stake because if the original trade was wrong the price must go the other way and you would only have to go half the distance past the stop to break even.
Philippe
201
Philippe 2010.07.07 10:24  
marcoblbr:

Matutin,

Awesome!! I liked your Black Hole and it's really good to know someone's on the same boat!! We can work together to solve this issue! I had the idea of doubling the lot after applying the same strategy on Blackjack. I was never good at counting cards, so this strategy proved to be very efficient with $1000 cash and $10 bets :-)

So, for how long have you been working on your EA and tried to avoid the Black Hole ? It's been a week for me thinking on a solution. I already tried to increase or reduce the stop losses on each new trade but eventually it happens again and with big stop losses, you lose much more money! It's impossible to avoid it 100% since you can simply buy and the price can fall.

Maybe the solution is to use a different strategy after the third try. I'm curious about your EA. Can you post some results of the strategy tester ? Also, have you been trading on a live account or you are still developing it like me, and based on what technique you open trades ? I'm almost ready to try it for real... I'm looking for a trend indicator to use so that I stop opening positions when it detects a flat zone!!

I'm using Psar and Aroon to open trade and ATR to manage hedging distance. Fisrt lot is 0.1 and DeltaLot is +1.5 lots. Target very small as 50$

Multiple tests with 1,2,8 and 12 pairs are running since 3 months. 50%/month on demo account. Live test will begin in september.

I manage also the spread before opening and closing. You can save easily save a lot of money !

Ubzen
5394
Ubzen 2010.07.07 10:30  
Matutin:


I'm using Psar and Aroon to open trade and ATR to manage hedging distance. Fisrt lot is 0.1 and DeltaLot is +1.5 lots

Multiple tests with 1,2,8 and 12 pairs are running since 3 months. 50%/month on demo account. Live test will begin in september.

I manage also the spread before opening and closing. You can save easily o lot of money !


Would you mind showing at least 2-year back-test for one of those pairs?
Philippe
201
Philippe 2010.07.07 10:48  
ubzen:

Would you mind showing at least 2-year back-test for one of those pairs?

No.

I'm not here to prove something but to share technical view about mql4.

Ubzen
5394
Ubzen 2010.07.07 10:55  
Matutin:

No.

I'm not here to prove something but to share technical view about mql4.


Okay.....lolz

Mr "50%/month on demo account."

Bluesky
138
Bluesky 2010.07.07 10:58  

This is exactly like the EA I published some time ago: https://www.mql5.com/en/code/9485.

Ping Pong Zones are the results of an antimartingale system.

Philippe
201
Philippe 2010.07.07 11:03  
BlueSkyThinking:

This is exactly like the EA I published some time ago: https://www.mql5.com/en/code/9485.

Ping Pong Zones are the results of an antimartingale system.


Yes ! You have inspired me a lot !

What's about Lilly today :)

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