NIESR United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimate

NIESR Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimate is published by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. This is an informal preliminary monthly calculation of national GDP based on statistical models and published data. The index measures the change in the estimated value of all goods and services produced in the UK during the past three months.

The calculation covers five conditional sectors of the UK economy: industry, agriculture, construction, private services and public services (education, health, defense, administration). The calculation is based on monthly published indexes relating to these sectors. These include the production index, the volume of construction, the service sector production index, retail sales, etc.

There are no obvious indicator variables available for agriculture and public services. Therefore, data for these sectors are calculated using interpolation and mathematical models, taking into account previously received data.

The NIESR report is released three weeks before the official quarterly statistics release and is interpreted by analysts as a preliminary alternative GDP forecast. Resulting figures are normally well correlated with the official estimate of the gross domestic product. However, the indicator does not have a significant impact on the pound sterling quotes, since it often serves as a preliminary guide for traders before the official quarterly statistics release.