NIESR United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimate

Country:
United Kingdom
GBP, Pound sterling
Sector:
GDP
Medium 0.7% 0.4%
0.7%
Last release Importance Actual Forecast
Previous
0.4%
0.7%
Next release Actual Forecast
Previous
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NIESR Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimate is published by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. This is an informal preliminary monthly calculation of national GDP based on statistical models and published data. The index measures the change in the estimated value of all goods and services produced in the UK during the past three months.

The calculation covers five conditional sectors of the UK economy: industry, agriculture, construction, private services and public services (education, health, defense, administration). The calculation is based on monthly published indexes relating to these sectors. These include the production index, the volume of construction, the service sector production index, retail sales, etc.

There are no obvious indicator variables available for agriculture and public services. Therefore, data for these sectors are calculated using interpolation and mathematical models, taking into account previously received data.

The NIESR report is released three weeks before the official quarterly statistics release and is interpreted by analysts as a preliminary alternative GDP forecast. Resulting figures are normally well correlated with the official estimate of the gross domestic product. However, the indicator does not have a significant impact on the pound sterling quotes, since it often serves as a preliminary guide for traders before the official quarterly statistics release.

Last values:

actual data

forecast

The chart of the entire available history of the "NIESR United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimate" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values ​​of the economic indicator for the specified dates.

A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values ​​of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.

Date (GMT)
Reference
Actual
Forecast
Previous
May 2024
0.7%
0.4%
0.7%
Apr 2024
0.7%
0.3%
0.6%
Mar 2024
0.4%
0.2%
Feb 2024
0.2%
0.0%
Jan 2024
-0.1%
0.0%
-0.3%
Dec 2023
-0.3%
0.0%
Nov 2023
-0.2%
-0.1%
Oct 2023
0.0%
0.1%
Sep 2023
0.0%
-0.1%
Aug 2023
0.3%
0.2%
Jul 2023
0.2%
0.0%
0.3%
Jun 2023
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
May 2023
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
Apr 2023
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
Mar 2023
0.1%
-0.1%
0.1%
Feb 2023
-0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Jan 2023
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.0%
Dec 2022
0.1%
-0.3%
-0.3%
Nov 2022
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
Oct 2022
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.2%
Sep 2022
-0.3%
-0.1%
-0.3%
Aug 2022
-0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Jul 2022
0.0%
0.0%
-0.1%
Jun 2022
0.2%
0.1%
0.4%
May 2022
-0.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Apr 2022
0.3%
1.0%
0.8%
Mar 2022
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Feb 2022
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
Jan 2022
0.9%
1.1%
1.0%
Dec 2021
1.2%
1.0%
1.1%
Nov 2021
0.9%
1.3%
0.9%
Oct 2021
1.0%
2.0%
1.3%
Sep 2021
1.5%
3.2%
2.9%
Aug 2021
2.4%
4.4%
3.6%
Jul 2021
3.9%
4.4%
4.8%
Jun 2021
4.8%
2.6%
3.6%
May 2021
3.8%
-0.1%
1.5%
Apr 2021
1.3%
-1.8%
-1.5%
Mar 2021
-1.5%
-10.8%
-1.6%
Feb 2021
-2.0%
-11.3%
-1.7%
Jan 2021
-2.5%
7.1%
1.0%
Dec 2020
0.9%
6.4%
4.1%
Nov 2020
1.5%
5.3%
10.3%
Oct 2020
10.2%
20.1%
15.5%
Sep 2020
15.2%
8.7%
8.0%
Aug 2020
7.0%
-6.3%
-7.6%
Jul 2020
-7.9%
-19.7%
-20.4%
Jun 2020
-21.2%
-19.0%
-19.1%
May 2020
-17.6%
-15.7%
-10.3%
Apr 2020
-11.8%
-13.2%
-2.0%

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