Ifo Germany Current Business Situation
The CESifo Group, consisting of the Center for Economic Studies (CES), the ifo Institute and the CESifo GmbH (Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research), is a unique research group in Europe in the field of economic research. In the opinion of the Senate of the Leibniz Association, an association of German research institutes of various disciplines based in Berlin, it is one of the leading European economic research institutes. The service spectrum ranges from internationally established service products such as the ifo Business Climate Index to internationally recognized research, the promotion of young scientists and the numerous, widely published contributions to the political debate at national and European level.
The ifo Institute determines the ifo Business Climate Index on a monthly basis. It is based on approximately 7,000 monthly reports from companies in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail sectors. Companies are asked to report their current business situation (ifo current business climate) and their expectations for the next six months (ifo economic outlook). They can mark their situation and the current business climate with "good", "satisfactory" or "bad". The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the answers "good" and "bad".
To calculate the index values of the business climate, the balances are increased by 200 and standardized to the average of a base year (currently 2015):
Index value = 100 * (current month balance + 200) / (base year average balance + 200).
A value above expectations is considered favourable for the euro rates, while smaller values are considered negative.
The chart of the entire available history of the "Ifo Germany Current Business Situation" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values of the economic indicator for the specified dates.
A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.
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