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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

22 March 2018, 12:20

EEAnalytics

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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Thursday, March 22^nd

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend today, backed by retreat of the US dollar against its major rivals, while refreshing its weekly highs at 1.2388 spot. Broad sell off of the US dollar is mainly attributed to not enough hawkish outcome of the Fed meeting. As it was widely expected the regulator increased its interest rate by 25 bps up to the level of 1.75%, however, investors by that moment had already managed to fully price in this decision of the Fed, therefore the reaction on it was limited. Markets were expecting the revision of “dot plot”, which would imply an additional rate hike this year, however, it didn’t happen. Nevertheless, the regulator did the revision of its plans regarding the rate, indicating 3 rate hikes next year, instead of 2 previously planned, but the market payed little of the attention to these comments. In general, the outcome of the FOMC meeting appeared hawkish, where the regulator indicated confident growth of the inflation, however, noting that there is no evidence of the acceleration of its growth. On the data front, today the economic calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy, so the pair will continue to follow widespread market sentiments during this session.

The GBP/USD pair extends it bullish trend, having refreshed its 3-week highs at 1.4178 in early Europe, in wake of broad sell off of the US dollar. Yesterday, during the NA session the Fed increased its interest rate up to 1.75% level. However, the greenback failed to benefit from the hawkish decision of the committee, as investors were expecting a hawkish revision of rate hike projection for this year, which eventually remained unchanged. On other the hand, today we will witness another important economic event – BoE interest rate decision, which will take place later during the European trading session. It is expected that the UK regulator will keep its interest rate at the same level, while further economic projections, taking into account streak of positive UK economic results and the progress in Brexit negotiations, will affect positions of the pound. Besides the BoE meeting, the UK will release retail sales numbers, which will also have some impact on the pair during the European trades.

The NZD/USD pair was consolidating its positions in 0.7225-45 range during Asia, cooling off after eventful and volatile session. Yesterday in NY afternoon, meetings of both regulators took place, which forced the pair to bounce off its 3-month lows, marked on the level of 0.7153. As it was widely expected, the Fed increased its rate from 1.5 to 1.75%. However, markets reacted negatively on the outcome of the FOMC meeting, as the head of the regulator left its rate hike projection at the same level, while the market was expecting more aggressive actions. On the other hand, the RBNZ meeting was non-event. The regulator remained positive on the NZ economic growth outlook, however, reiterating that the Bank will continue to maintain accommodative monetary policy. Today we will witness pretty quiet session ahead, as the US will release only secondary data reports, so investors will continue to digest recent economic events, thus determining pair’s direction this Thursday.

The AUD/USD pair failed to keep its positive tone, triggered by broad weakness of the greenback, and eased some part of its yesterday’s gains. On Wednesday, the greenback came under massive selling pressure, following not enough hawkish outcome of the Fed meeting. Although the Fed increased its interest rate for 25 bps, the greenback turned negative, as investors were awaiting that the Fed would indicate an additional rate hike this year over the already expected three, but the committee left their “dot plot” unchanged at three rate hikes for 2018. However, the pair failed to keep its positions and eased some part of its gains on the back of disappointing Australia’s employment change numbers. In the day ahead, nothing important is scheduled in the economic calendar for the pair, so broad market sentiments, caused by recent economic events, will remain the main driver for the pair today.

Major events of the day:

Prelim. German Manufacturing PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)

German Ifo Business Climate – 12.00 (GMT +3)

UK Retail Sales – 12.30 (GMT +3)

BoE Interest Rate Decision – 15.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD S. 1.2163 R. 1.2393

USDJPY S. 105.67 R. 107.03

GBPUSD S. 1.3931 R. 1.4099

USDCHF S. 0.9476 R. 0.9612

AUDUSD S. 0.7651 R. 0.7735

NZDUSD S. 0.7130 R. 0.7274