Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra / Profil

Crude Oil (WTI) (K6) Intraday: rebound in sight.

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Pivot: 39.50

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 39.50 with targets @ 40.76 & 41.54 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 39.50 look for further downside with 38.44 & 37.60 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Beitrag Today WTI Expectation veröffentlicht

Crude Oil (WTI) (K6) Intraday: rebound in sight.

Prev Top

Pivot: 39.50

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 39.50 with targets @ 40.76 & 41.54 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 39.50 look for further downside with 38.44 & 37.60 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Pre US Open, Daily Technical Analysis Wednesday, April 20, 2016

EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails. Prev Next

Pivot: 1.1325

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1325 with targets @ 1.1400 & 1.1430 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1325 look for further downside with 1.1290 & 1.1270 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.


GBP/USD Intraday: rebound. Prev Next

Pivot: 1.4340

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.4340 with targets @ 1.4425 & 1.4460 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.4340 look for further downside with 1.4285 & 1.4240 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is well directed.

USD/JPY Intraday: rebound. Prev Next

Pivot: 108.70

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 108.70 with targets @ 109.45 & 109.75 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 108.70 look for further downside with 108.50 & 108.10 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.


AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails. Prev Next

Pivot: 0.7760

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 0.7760 with targets @ 0.7825 & 0.7860 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7760 look for further downside with 0.7730 & 0.7675 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is well directed.

Gold spot Intraday: the bias remains bullish. Prev Next

Pivot: 1244.00

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1244.00 with targets @ 1259.50 & 1265.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1244.00 look for further downside with 1235.50 & 1227.00 as targets.

Comment: a support base at 1244.00 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

Pre European Open, Daily Technical Analysis

April 20, 2016

EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 1.1325

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1325 with targets @ 1.1400 & 1.1430 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1325 look for further downside with 1.1290 & 1.1270 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

GBP/USD Intraday: the upside

Pivot: 1.4340

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.4340 with targets @ 1.4425 & 1.4460 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.4340 look for further downside with 1.4285 & 1.4240 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum


USD/JPY Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 108.70

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 108.70 with targets @ 109.45 & 109.75 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 108.70 look for further downside with 108.50 & 108.10 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 0.7760

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 0.7760 with targets @ 0.7825 & 0.7860 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7760 look for further downside with 0.7730 & 0.7675 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Gold spot Intraday: rebound expected.

Pivot: 1240.75

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1240.75 with targets @ 1259.50 & 1265.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1240.75 look for further downside with 1235.50 & 1227.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Crude Oil (WTI) (K6) Intraday: bullish bias above 39.50.

Pivot: 39.50

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 39.50 with targets @ 40.76 & 41.54 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 39.50 look for further downside with 38.44 & 37.60 as targets.

Comment: a support base at 39.50 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

Crude Oil (WTI) (K6) Intraday: key resistance at 40.00.



Pivot: 40.00

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 40.00 with targets @ 37.60 & 36.80 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 40.00 look for further upside with 40.80 & 41.73 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

Gold spot Intraday: further advance.



Pivot: 1230.00

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1230.00 with targets @ 1240.00 & 1244.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1230.00 look for further downside with 1227.00 & 1224.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

AUD/USD Intraday: caution.



Pivot: 0.7710

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 0.7710 with targets @ 0.7615 & 0.7580 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 0.7710 look for further upside with 0.7740 & 0.7770 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed and calls for caution.

USD/JPY Intraday: under pressure.



Pivot: 108.85

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 108.85 with targets @ 107.75 & 107.30 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 108.85 look for further upside with 109.45 & 109.75 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

GBP/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.4205.



Pivot: 1.4205

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.4205 with targets @ 1.4130 & 1.4100 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.4205 look for further upside with 1.4240 & 1.4280 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

EUR/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.1270.



Pivot: 1.1270

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1270 with targets @ 1.1320 & 1.1345 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1270 look for further downside with 1.1245 & 1.1215 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is well directed.

Doha failure sparks market jitters


18 April @ 12:41
By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst
An undeniable feeling of disappointed engulfed the global markets during trading on Monday following the unsuccessful Doha meeting on Sunday which erased any remaining credibility OPEC had to offer. Despite Iran’s absence in the meeting, expectations were high for a freeze deal to be struck, but the visible dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran sabotaged all efforts consequently causing WTI crude to plunge more than 5%. While realistically the effects of an output freeze would have had a minimal impact on the supply glut, even a symbolic gesture from OPEC to deal with the oversupply could have boosted optimism for future deals.

This string of events almost suggests that the major players in the cartel had no real intention of curbing production, but simply exploited the explosive levels of volatility to manufacture speculative boosts in prices based on false expectations. Sentiment remains bearish towards oil, and with market participants losing hope in the ability of OPEC to work together in battling the excessive oversupply in the markets; bearish investors have been provided a platform to install another round of selling. The last time oil prices sunk to the 13 year lows of $26.20 in February, oil producers felt the pinch and prices may need to trade back below $25 for desperation to kick in which could force a real output deal to be struck.

With the fundamentals of an unrelenting oversupply in the markets still present and concerns that demand may be waning, WTI crude remains heavily depressed. Expectations are rapidly fading over the cartel working together and this should leave prices vulnerable in the short and medium term. From a technical standpoint, the steep decline experienced in Monday’s session could provide enough momentum for WTI crude to trade back towards $38.

UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS WAS THE SOLE POSITIVE IN A WEEK FILLED WITH DISAPPOINTING US DATA

U.S. retail sales disappointed with a 0.3 percent contraction when a slight expansion of 0.1 percent was expected. Removing volatile auto sales did not improve over estimates as core retail sales came in at 0.2 percent. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was lower at –0.1 percent. The key inflation data point used by the Fed the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was also lower than forecasted at 0.1 percent putting not pressure on the Fed to raise rates in the short term. Consumer sentiment measured by the University of Michigan dropped to 89.7 to its lowest point in 8 months. Unemployment claims was the outlier in a mostly dollar negative week of economic releases. Jobless claims fell to 253,000 matching a 42 year low, but given the patience of the Fed and the collection of disappointments in other components of the economy the influence of employment data is shrinking as the American central bank is looking for signs of inflation to force their hand on monetary policy.
The Fed can afford to be cautious as other central banks face a steeper challenge. The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its minimum bid rate on Thursday, April 21 at 7:45 am EDT. The ECB will hold rates unchanged after the massive QE push in March that did very little to depreciate the EUR. President Mario Draghi’s press conference will be the highlight, as the market will be watching to see if he uses the same rhetoric that proved ineffective on March 10 or if he finds a way to better communicate with market participants.
Oil prices have stabilized after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia announced a possible oil output freeze agreement. The summit in Doha will likely bring that production freeze agreement, but questions remain on how much impact it will have as global production continues to accumulate with very little growth in demand to offset it. Low energy prices have downgraded inflation expectations around the world and with production cuts are out of the question for most producers; it remains to be seen how sustainable current prices are at frozen, but still record high levels of production.

Latest News
A meeting amongst the world’s largest oil producers in Qatar this Sunday produced no formal agreement on a possible production freeze, causing oil to fall 5% at the opening while USDCAD opened with a 145 pip gap up at 1.2938. USDJPY meanwhile is once again testing late 2014 lows, hovering just below the 108 handle, as a general pessimistic sentiment sees stock markets in Asia in Europe lower this morning. Lastly, inflation in New Zealand grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, beating estimates of 0.1%, discouraging the case for an interest-rate cut in April from the RBNZ.
Today’s economic calendar is absent from any tier-one data with the FOMC’s William Dudley expected to deliver opening remarks at the FED’s New York conference. Additionally, during the overnight session the Reserve Bank of Australia will publish their monetary policy meeting minutes following their decision to leave interest rates unchanged two weeks ago.

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