Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra / Profil

EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 1.1420

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1420 with targets @ 1.1365 & 1.1340 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.1420 look for further upside with 1.1445 & 1.1480 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

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Surprisingly, we saw a significant increase in volatility today despite the lack of economic figures across the globe.

From Germany, both the factory orders MoM and YoY jumped to 1.9% and 1.7% in March up from -0.8% and 0.7% respectively, while in the U.K, Halifax house prices index retreated by -0.8% in April while it was anticipated at -0.3%.

Regarding the U.S numbers, the labor market conditions index worsened for third month to confirm that the gain in March payrolls was temporary.

Now, let’s have a look at the technical picture.



DXY (Dollar index)

The U.S Dollar continue to register further gains as bulls succeeded to preserve the lower side of the weekly range located around 92.00/92.50 support zone.

The dollar index overtook 94.00 handle, which keeps the outlook positive in the short-term. However, we expect strong sellers to appear this week around 94.50/80 zone.

Support: 91.90-91.

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Movers

Hopes for a June rate hike by the Federal Reserve were totally diminished after the disappointing NFP report on Friday showed the U.S. economy added only 160,000 jobs in the month of April. This marked the fewest number of jobs added in seven months and well below the one-year median of 232,000. The labor force participation rate which dropped by 0.2%, after increasing moderately for the past six months provided another worrying sign as Fed officials take this number seriously when planning for the next move. On the bright side, average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% in April, taking the year-on-year change to 2.5%. Wage growth and comments from permanent Fed voter William Dudley who reiterated on Friday that it’s reasonable to expect the U.S. central bank would raise rates twice this year, supported the dollar from collapsing. From the other side traders seemed prepared for a weak release as CFTC report indicated U.S. dollar short positions climbed for a third consecutive

Beitrag Pivot Points Hourly veröffentlicht

Beitrag Pivot Points Hourly veröffentlicht

A notable slip in risk trend and rebound from the Dollar this past week has spurred speculation of reversals. However, is there enough fundamental leverage to change the market's tack and develop serious moves?

US Dollar Forecast – Dollar’s Next Move Falls to Speculators Rather Than Data

The Dollar started off this past week at an 11-month low and ended it with the best run since the early November climb that drove the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) to 12-year highs.

Euro Lacking Direction as Data Momentum Improves, Brexit Concerns Ebb

Q1’16 growth figures due at the end of the week should garner some attention, but the Euro remains without a sincerely meaningful domestic driver in the short-term.

Japanese Yen Forecast - Japanese Yen Could Trade Higher If and When this Occurs

The Japanese Yen gave back some of its recent gains versus the US Dollar in a choppy week for financial markets.

British Pound Forecast -Super Thursday: Brexit Possibility to Complicate Inflation Projections

It was just seven months ago that we were going into the Bank of England’s Super Thursday announcements with the potential of hearing about a rate hike in the not-too-distant future.

Chinese Yuan (CNH) Forecast - Yuan Volatility to Continue on PBOC Activity, CPI and Equity Volatility

The offshore Yuan (CNH) rate closed at a five-week low against theUS Dollaron Friday following the biggest downward move in Yuan fixing by the PBOC since the Yuan’s de-pegging.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast - New Zealand Dollar Looks To Wheeler Speech At Financial Stability Report on Tuesday

The US Dollar surprised a lot of G10 currencies this week, but few more than the New Zealand Dollar and other commodity currencies.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Aussie Dollar Still Vulnerable After Largest Drop in Three Weeks

The Australian Dollar is vulnerable to deeper losses as risk aversion continues to batter the financial markets, putting pressure on the sentiment-sensitive currency.

Gold Forecast - Gold Dips as USD Rips- NFP Extinguishes June Rate Hike Hopes

Gold pricesare softer this week with the precious metal off 0.21% to trade at 1290 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

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Crude Oil (WTI) (M6) Intraday: key resistance at 44.90.

Pivot: 44.90

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 44.90 with targets @ 44.00 & 43.30 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 44.90 look for further upside with 45.35 & 46.00 as targets.

Comment: as long as 44.90 is resistance, expect a return to 44.00.

Gold spot Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 1289.70

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1289.70 with targets @ 1271.50 & 1264.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1289.70 look for further upside with 1301.50 & 1314.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 0.7520

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 0.7520 with targets @ 0.7440 & 0.7410 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 0.7520 look for further upside with 0.7550 & 0.7590 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

USD/JPY Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 106.10

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 106.10 with targets @ 107.45 & 107.85 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 106.10 look for further downside with 105.50 & 105.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

GBP/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 1.4575

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.4575 with targets @ 1.4465 & 1.4400 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.4575 look for further upside with 1.4620 & 1.4660 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 1.1540

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1540 with targets @ 1.1450 & 1.1415 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.1540 look for further upside with 1.1600 & 1.1660 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.