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Cointegrated Pairs Trading Indicator


Model Lelothoane is a forex trading system model packaged into an indicator executable on a PC running Metatrader 4. The model exploits the mean-reversion property of stationary processes. Stationarity is determined or confirmed by performing cointegration tests between two forex instruments. In the case that there is strong evidence of cointegration the two instruments can be traded as one stationary process. The trader can make entries every time the model spread/deviation (residual time series) crosses a new multiple of standard deviation from on its way from the mean. The indicator plots four multiples of standard deviation (-4 Std, -3 Std, -2 Std, -1 Std, 1 Std, 2 Std, 3 Std, 4 Std) in the indicator window below the main chart window. The indicator also displays some useful information (i.e. cointegration model parameters, lot size ratio, standard deviation, model deviation, levels, etc) in the main chart window.

To explain this operation further, suppose the model spread crosses the first standard deviation (negative or positive side) away from the mean. Then the trader will open two orders which together act as one order pair for model spread as a synthetic instrument (a stationary one). If the model spread goes further away to cross the second standard deviation from the mean, the trader  can pen a new order pair with same lot sizes. The trader should wait until the model spread reverts back to the mean (i.e. level 0) and close all trades and start afresh.  The end result is always that when the model mean finally reverts back to the mean there will be net profit in so far as the cointegration model is still valid.

There is a good reason why it is safe to keep opening order pairs as the model spread keeps moving away from the mean. That reason is that, since the model spread is a tested stationary process then it has a tendency of mean reversion and binning this process result in Gaussian histogram profile and this tells us that the probability of model spread moving further and further away from the mean decreases exponentially. It is for this reason that always betting that model spread is bound to revert back to the mean value results in an investment system with a positive expectation value which can be calculated explicitly given the mean and variance of the Gaussian histogram profile.

The lot size ratio is given by the coefficients of the instruments displayed in the main chart window (i.e. if the model is EURUD = -1.14*USDCHF + 1.86 for example, then the lot size ratio should be EURUSD : USDCHF = 1.00 : 1.14. Here are some few rules regarding what to buy/sell and when. Suppose the cointegration model example is given by EURUSD = M*USDCHF + C. Then the rules are as follows (Remember we only make entries when the model spread crosses multiples of standard deviation when it moves away from the mean):

1. If Model deviation is negative (i.e. negative level) AND the coefficient M is positive, do the following: (a) buy EURUSD and sell USDCHF and (b) set the lot size ratio of EURSD : USDCHF = 1 : abs(M).

2. If Model deviation is negative (i.e. negative level) AND the coefficient M is negative, do the following: (a) buy EURUSD and buy USDCHF and (b) set the lot size ratio of EURSD : USDCHF = 1 : abs(M).

3. If Model deviation is positive (i.e. negative level) AND the coefficient M is positive, do the following: (a) sell EURUSD and buy USDCHF and (b) set the lot size ratio of EURSD : USDCHF = 1 : abs(M). 

4. If Model deviation is positive (i.e. negative level) AND the coefficient M is negative, do the following: (a) sell EURUSD and sell USDCHF and (b) set the lot size ratio of EURSD : USDCHF = 1 : abs(M).

The robot has various input parameters (set at default settings) some of which are described below:

1. N is the data size for building cointegration model.
2. TFrame is the time frame in minutes.
3. PairOne & PairTwo are two trading instruments which are to tested for cointegration and traded if the test succeeds. The robot will report back if the chosen instruments have weak or no significant cointegration and the user should react by choosing a different combination.

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[   MT5-Version   ]  Orderblock-Indikator MT4 Der Order Block Indicator MT4 ist derzeit der genaueste und anpassbarste Indikator auf dem Markt. Es wurde entwickelt, um die Analyse von Operationen basierend auf Auftragsblöcken und Angebots- und Nachfragezonen zu erleichtern. Diese Zonen sind mögliche Umkehrpunkte einer Bewegung. Orderblock Indicator MT4 hebt aktive Orderblöcke von bis zu 4 TFs gleichzeitig hervor. Gleichzeitig bietet der Order Block Indicator MT4 ein visuelles Warnsystem, mit dem
450 USD
Der Forex TPA Indikator deckt die wahren Aktionen der Marktmacher auf, immer dann wenn sie passieren. "Kämpfe nicht gegen die Marktmacher an, sondern folge ihnen", ist wohl der beste Rat, den ein Trader bekommen kann. Der TPA Indikator zeigt jedesmal seine Signale an wenn die Bullen definitiv stärker sind als die Bären und umgekehrt. Dieser Indikator wurde VON Tradern FÜR Trader gemacht und ist 100% NICHT NACHZEICHNEND! Signale werden STRENG am Schluss einer Kerze  generiert. Das sagen unsere Ku
168 USD
MetaBands M4
Vahidreza Heidar Gholami
MetaBands uses powerful algorithms to draw channels and detect trends so that it can provide traders with potential points for entering and exiting trades. It’s a channel indicator plus a powerful trend indicator. It includes different types of channels which can be merged by the user to create new channels simply by using the input parameters. MetaBands uses all types of alerts to signal market events to the user. Features Supports most of the channel algorithms Powerful trend detection alg
129 USD
Buy Sell Alert
Andrey Kozak
5 (1)
„Buy Sell Alert“ – ein Indikator, der dem Trader zeigt, wohin der Trend geht und wann er ein Geschäft eröffnen muss. Wenn der Indikator eine grüne Linie auf dem Chart zeichnet, eröffnen wir eine Kauforder. Wenn der Indikator eine rote Linie auf dem Chart zeichnet, eröffnen wir eine Verkaufsorder. Vorteile des Indikators: Latenzprozentsatz weniger als 3 % Signalgenauigkeit über 96 % zeichnet seine Werte nicht neu Um eine Handelsstrategie aufzubauen, reicht es aus, diesen einen Indikator zu ver
137 USD
Allows multiple indicators to be combined into a single indicator, both visually and in terms of an alert. Indicators can include standard indicators, e.g. RSI, CCI, etc., and also Custom Indicators, even those purchased through Market, or where just have the ex4 file. An early alert is provided, say when 4 out 5 indicators have lined up, and a confirmed alert when all are in agreement. A‌lso features a statistics panel reporting the success of the combined indicator by examining the current cha
149 USD
Royal Scalping Indicator M4
Vahidreza Heidar Gholami
5 (2)
Royal Scalping Indicator is an advanced price adaptive indicator designed to generate high-quality trading signals. Built-in multi-timeframe and multi-currency capabilities make it even more powerful to have configurations based on different symbols and timeframes. This indicator is perfect for scalp trades as well as swing trades. Royal Scalping is not just an indicator, but a trading strategy itself. Features Price Adaptive Trend Detector Algorithm Multi-Timeframe and Multi-Currency Trend Lo
149 USD
Dies ist wahrscheinlich der vollständigste Indikator für die automatische Erkennung der harmonischen Preisbildung, den Sie für die MetaTrader-Plattform finden können. Es erkennt 19 verschiedene Muster, nimmt Fibonacci-Projektionen genauso ernst wie Sie, zeigt die potenzielle Umkehrzone (PRZ) an und findet geeignete Stop-Loss- und Take-Profit-Werte. [ Installationsanleitung | Update-Anleitung | Fehlerbehebung | FAQ | Alle Produkte ] Es erkennt 19 verschiedene harmonische Preisbildungen Dar
299 USD
Market Imbalance
Scott Edward Merritt
4.5 (10)
What Is Market Imbalance? Market Imbalance, also known as "IPA" or Improper Price Action, is when price moves so fast it only trades in one direction with no orders on the other side of the market to mitigate the price movement. We all know Big Banks, or "Smart Money", can move the market by placing huge orders which in turn moves price significantly. They can do this because Big Banks are the top 10 Forex traders in the world. But unfortunately, the Big Banks cannot leave these orders in drawdo
99.99 USD
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IMPORTANT NOTE: This robot trades two or more symbols at the go and as such it can not be tested with strategy tester in Metatrader 4. The reason being that Metatrader 4 strategy tester cannot synchronize price timing for more than one symbol at the time. To test this robot successfully, one has to run it in real-time on a demo account and monitor it for days. Cointegrated Pairs Trading Robot is an expert advisor executable on any PC running Metatrader 4. A linear regression is applied on two i
90 USD
NOTE: This robot trades three symbols at the go and as such it can not be tested with strategy tester in Metatrader 4. The reason being that Metatrader 4 strategy tester cannot synchronize price timing for more than one symbol at the time. To test this robot successfully, one has to run it in real-time on a demo account and monitor it for days. Triangular Statistical Arbitrage Robot is an expert advisor executable on any PC running Metatrader 4. A linear regression is applied on three instrumen
90 USD
NOTE: THIS IS A MULTICURRENCY EXPERT ADVISOR AND AS SUCH MAY NOT BE COMPARTIBLE WITH MT4 BACKTESTING. EASIEST WAY TO TEST IT IS BY SIMPLY RUNNING IT IN REAL-TIME ON MT4. Model Lelora is a forex trading system model packaged into an indicator executable on a PC running Metatrader 4. The model exploits the mean-reversion property of stationary processes. Stationarity is determined or confirmed by performing cointegration tests between three forex instruments that form a triangle (i.e have a prod
90 USD
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